According to an expert from the investment holding, the task of imposing sanctions has been made easier by the changed Russian legislation, which has required all market operators to legalize themselves and made the addresses of liquidity providers and the movement of assets more transparent.
An owner of cryptocurrency that has passed through Russian legal platforms risks encountering requests on foreign ones to confirm the origin of funds or even a refusal to accept the transfer. Opportunities for arbitrage between Russian and global platforms will shrink, and at this moment, as the Bits.media interlocutor put it, a 'separate price circuit with a discount to international quotes' may form.
By the will of the Central Bank, only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the stablecoin $USDT are legally allowed to circulate in Russia. It is quite possible to buy Bitcoins and Ethereum on a Russian platform and store them on a hardware wallet—but when trying to move them to an international exchange, use a foreign custodial service, or withdraw through foreign exchangers, difficulties may arise, a Finam specialist believes.
For $USDT, in his opinion, the risk is higher since the stablecoin issuer, Tether, is capable of freezing its tokens in holders' addresses.
'Limits for non-qualified investors and a limited list of available assets do not "taint" cryptocurrency by themselves, but they may further reduce the depth of the domestic market,' suggests Kirill Pistsov.
However, the Bits.media interlocutor does not name any specific provision of the changed Russian legislation that creates a market for 'tainted cryptocurrency'—as the 'risk arises from a combination of the new regulation and the sanctions environment.'
Despite all this, the legal market will be in demand in Russia, the Finam expert is convinced. The reason: for the mass investor, purchase for rubles, working through a familiar broker, legal protection, and clear tax accounting are important. More experienced investors will consider the price difference of crypto assets inside the country (cheaper) and abroad (more expensive) and try to maintain the ability to withdraw assets to their own wallet.
'Therefore, real demand largely depends on whether Russian participants can maintain working channels with external liquidity and prevent the legal market from turning into a completely closed system,' says Pistsov.
Recently, the Chairman of the Board of the Finam Group, Vladislav Kochetkov, expressed concern that there is a risk in Russia of the emergence of a separate, isolated crypto market of 'tainted cryptocurrency' 'with a significant discount to international benchmarks.'
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