Analysis suggests that the suppression of Bitcoin derivatives has been lifted, and the price discovery mechanism has returned.

12/26 15:40

Glassnode co-founder Negentropic stated that the current Bitcoin price structure is showing positive changes. The recent pullback continues to receive buying support, and previous lows remain intact, indicating that the market as a whole is exhibiting a constructive trend. A key structural change is that the derivative "short squeeze effect" has basically been cleared. With the largest Bitcoin options expiry event in history taking place, with a nominal scale of about 23.6 billion USD, the price suppression previously dominated by hedging behavior in recent weeks is coming to an end.Negentropic said that before the options expiry, market rises were often mechanically suppressed by hedging rather than driven by real supply and demand. As the related funds exit, BTC is no longer "pinned down," and the price structure is expected to be led by the market itself again, with the price discovery mechanism returning and upward bias gradually strengthening. From a macro perspective, he emphasized that the liquidity environment is still improving. The US M2 money supply grew by 4.3% year-on-year, reaching a historic high of 22.3 trillion USD in November, expanding for 21 consecutive months, about 400 billion USD higher than the 2022 peak. Even after adjusting for inflation, the real M2 still grew by 1.5% year-on-year and has risen for 15 consecutive months. The long-term trend remains clear—the dilution of fiat currency has not stopped, and macro and structural factors are creating a new tailwind environment for Bitcoin.

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