Goldman Sachs Analyzes Recent AI Stock Decline: Impact from Korean Market, Leverage Products, and Mo

On June 24, U.S. tech stocks experienced a rare sharp decline this year, which Goldman Sachs' trading desk believes is more akin to an orderly sell-off triggered by shocks from the Korean market and amplified by leverage and capital flows. Ariana Contessa and Mike Washington from Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC FICC & Equities wrote in the MarketFeed on June 24 that the overnight drop of approximately 10% in the Korean KOSPI index quickly weakened risk appetite, which transmitted to the U.S. trading session. By the close of trading, the S&P 500 index was down 1.44%, the Nasdaq 100 index fell 3.29%, the Russell 2000 index dropped 0.94%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained nearly flat. The tech-heavy Nasdaq recorded its third-largest single-day drop in the past year, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell nearly 8%. The core of this sell-off was concentrated in the semiconductor and storage sectors. Goldman noted that there was a massive foreign capital sell-off in the Korean market overnight, with foreign investors selling over $2.5 billion worth of Korean stocks, and major stocks saw record trading volumes. SK Hynix's trading volume reached about $26 billion, marking its highest nominal trading volume in history; leveraged products related to Hynix traded approximately $3.5 billion, closing down 24%. This indicates that the declines were not solely due to fundamental concerns but were also magnified by leverage products and position adjustments. The Goldman trading desk also listed several additional pressures currently affecting the market: concerns over recent financing and potential follow-on offerings, issues related to funding for mega-cap tech stocks, individual company events, risk-averse sentiment ahead of Micron's earnings report, and the potential for U.S. pension funds to sell about $40 billion in U.S. stocks for month-end rebalancing. Goldman stated that this would be the largest month-end sell-off estimate in its model's history. However, this was not a panic-driven sell-off. Goldman indicated that the overall activity level of its trading desk was rated at 5 out of 10, with asset management firms and hedge funds showing a clear bias towards selling, particularly concentrated in tech and macro products, but the selling pressure was not overwhelming, and the overall sentiment felt 'orderly,' without excessive reactions or panic. The proportion of ETF trading rose to 36% at the open but remained well below the peak volatility levels seen in March, gradually retreating during the session. The derivatives market showed that investors were increasing their protective measures. Goldman noted that the volatility of the Nasdaq 100 was significantly stronger than that of the S&P 500, with the one-month implied volatility spread relative to the S&P 500 exceeding 10 volatility points, placing it in the 99th percentile over the past year. The trading desk continued to prefer using month-end expiring QQQ put spreads as hedging tools. Goldman concluded that the decline in tech stocks on Tuesday was not caused by a single negative factor but was the result of a combination of severe fluctuations in the Korean market, high concentration in the semiconductor and storage sectors, de-risking of leverage products, risk aversion ahead of earnings reports, and month-end capital rebalancing. Market sentiment has clearly weakened, but from the trading flow perspective, it remains an orderly risk reduction rather than a widespread panic.