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02/11 04:12

Bitcoin’s ‘weakest bear market’ ever: Ber

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Bitcoin Bitcoin’s ‘weakest bear market’ ever: Bernstein predicts $150K in 2026 Glassnode and Bitfinex analysts cautioned that further drop could still be possible The current drawdown has not affected Bernstein’s Bitcoin[BTC] projection of hitting $150K by the end of 2026. In a recent note to clients, the analysts at the research and brokerage firm, led by Gautam Chhugani, said the current decline was the ‘weakest’ BTC bear case so far.  “What we are experiencing is the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history” Unlike past bear markets, which were driven by blow-ups (the FTX implosion in 2022), hidden leverage, and other systemic risks, the 2026 market doesn’t rhyme, the analysts added.  Chhugani blamed the current weakness on a ‘manufactured crisis of confidence’ driven by followers of the 4-year cycle. The analysts sarcastically wrote,  “When all stars are aligned, Bitcoin community manufactures a self-imposed crisis of confidence. Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel. Media is back again to write an obituary. Time remains a flat circle on Bitcoin.” From its cycle peak of $126K in October, Bitcoin fell to $60K in early February, marking a 52% decline. At press time, it had slightly recovered to $69K.  The past five BTC bear markets since 2011 have averaged an 80% drawdown, with the least being 72%. That would make a 52% decline in 2026, indeed, the ‘weakest’.  However, if it were to match the past trends, that would imply an extra downside risk to $35.2K. Put differently, the current level was at the halfway point of a typical bear-market pullback.  

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