Crypto Express

07/15 05:49

Bitcoin is reacting to a broken fiscal system

Bitcoin’s vertical price action, rising in tandem with Treasury yields and inverse to a weakening U.S. dollar, reflects an unusual macro dislocation.

As the Kobeissi Letter noted, the trigger may be Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” passed on 03 July. This has already aligned with a $15,000 jump in BTC.

Markets are reading this as a response to growing fiscal strain, especially with the U.S posting a $316 billion deficit in May alone. In turn, pulling capital out of bonds and into risk assets. The 10-year yield also hit 4.43%, a monthly high, as investors reassessed their risk.

In short, tariffs may be eroding dollar strength, pushing yields up, and helping Bitcoin punch through resistance levels. 

Why? When import prices rise, inflation picks up. That forces the government to pay more in interest on its debt (since Treasury yields climb), while slower growth drags down tax revenues (reflected in a falling dollar).

The result? A fiscal squeeze that’s driving capital into Bitcoin, with BTC’s latest price action underlining that. It’s a key macro divergence, one that means high interest rates may now be a catalyst, potentially softening any macro-driven volatility ahead.

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