crypto 368
02/10 04:51
‘Bitcoin’s cycle top isn’t in, just mid-bull pullb
Bitcoin’s boring price performance after President Donald Trump’s inauguration has fueled more and more BTC cycle top calls from some market commentators.
However, Chris Burniske, ex-Ark Invest crypto executive and current VC partner at Placeholder, believes that while the market is in a “mid-bull pullback,” it hasn’t peaked yet. He stated,
“I don’t think this is a sign of cycle top, rather a mid-bull pullback that makes everyone question god. Feels a lot more like April, May, June of 2021 to me, where things fell 50-80% depending on the coin, many said it was over, top-callers gloated, and then we ripped in 2H ’21.”
According to the attached chart, BTC dropped from $64k to $30k in the first half of 2021. However, the king coin rallied later in the second half of 2021 and topped out at $69k. Whether history will repeat itself or not, remains to be seen.
Bitcoin – Why $96k is a key level
That being said, a key valuation indicator, Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV, supported Burniske’s projections. In fact, CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler also highlighted that the market may be exiting a local overheated market. Especially as the STH MVRV dropped from 1.35 to neutral levels.
Adler stated,
“An STH MVRV above 1.30–1.35 typically signals an overheated market, often leading to sell-offs. The decline in the indicator suggests that a portion of STHs have exited their positions. A return to average levels points to the end of a local overheated phase.”
Alder added that a drop below the STH MVRV average could signal a local bottom, as seen last September. Whether the indicator will retreat below the average depends on announcements from President Trump as the broader market remains at risk from his tariffs plans.
On the other hand, the STH realized price (RP) or average price cost of BTC acquired over the past 1-3 months was at $96K. Historically, the STH RP has acted as either support or resistance.
A sustained price drop below it could trigger wild panic among the STH cohort and prompt them to sell at a loss.
On the contrary, a rebound on the STH RP as a support could sustain the uptrend. 
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