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The article argues that owning a promise or right to Bitcoin (e.g., through an exchange, broker, or ETF) is not the same as truly owning the asset, as access can be revoked by third parties due to regulation, bankruptcy, or policy changes. It emphasizes the importance of self-custody, where the user holds their private keys and has full control, eliminating counterparty risk. It highlights the launch of the first Trezor hardware wallet 12 years ago, which solved the problem of secure self-custody by keeping keys offline. While technology has made self-custody user-friendly, the main barrier now is a lack of awareness and trust, with many users discouraged from holding their own keys. Recent trends like ETFs and regulatory actions in Europe illustrate the risks of trusting intermediaries. The conclusion is that self-custody is the secure and simple answer, and the industry's focus should be on making it more accessible and understood, empowering users to take control before they learn its importance through loss.

Analytics firm Glassnode reported that reduced expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, along with pricing in possible rate hikes, have suppressed risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. The Fed's interest rate decisions are crucial for market direction. U.S. Treasury yields have surpassed returns from crypto carry trades, leading investors to favor cash and low-risk interest-bearing instruments over crypto assets. A strong U.S. dollar further weakens marginal demand for crypto. Bitcoin is currently trading below its most intensive cost basis level, with approximately $69,000 identified as the breakeven zone and significant resistance for short-term investors. For a stronger recovery, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $69,000 threshold with increased trading volume. Renewed active demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is also deemed critical. According to Glassnode, the current Bitcoin decline represents the shallowest bear market in terms of price drawdown depth to date. However, based on previous cycle durations, this downturn may not be over yet. Spot trading volumes have fallen to multi-year lows, and sell-side order books have thinned, though many buy orders are placed significantly below current prices. Glassnode's risk indicator, Vector, signaled "risk off," suggesting a capital preservation mindset. The current market structure is being driven more by macroeconomic factors like monetary policy, bond yields, and dollar strength than by crypto-sector developments. Losing Bitcoin's support range of $62,000-$68,000, coupled with renewed exchange inflows, could negate the recovery scenario. Conversely, more favorable monetary policy, increased trading volume, a Bitcoin recovery above $69,000, and a resumption of spot ETF buying could signal a market turnaround.

On July 29th, Bitcoin's price fluctuated amid market reactions to an Iranian strike on a U.S. base in Jordan and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady. After trading between $63,500 and $64,000, Bitcoin jumped to $64,500 by 4 a.m. EST. It later consolidated around $64,000 but plunged below $63,700, erasing earlier gains. Following the Fed's widely expected decision to maintain rates, Bitcoin surged back to $64,400 and stabilized near $64,200. This late rally resulted in just a 1% daily decline, with Bitcoin's market cap reaching $1.29 trillion. Leveraged position liquidations were relatively low, totaling over $38 million for Bitcoin and nearly $322 million across the broader crypto market, with short positions bearing the brunt. Initial pressure came from renewed Middle East tensions, which spiked oil prices. However, market focus quickly shifted to the Fed's policy meeting. While the immediate decision calmed markets, the committee left the door open for potential rate hikes later in the year. For Bitcoin, this suggests that future price increases will likely depend on internal catalysts like institutional adoption, ETF inflows, or protocol upgrades, rather than favorable broader macroeconomic trends.

On July 28, institutional cryptocurrency demand showed further divergence. Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued to attract capital with a net inflow of $14.53 million, led by BlackRock's ETHB and Morgan Stanley's new MSSE fund, which saw a $5.15 million inflow on its debut. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs experienced their fourth consecutive day of net outflows, totaling $49.75 million, primarily from BlackRock's IBIT. Solana (SOL) ETFs faced a sharp net outflow of $18.07 million, while ETFs for $HYPE recorded outflows for a fourth day. XRP products saw no net flows. Overall, the data indicates a selective market where Ether is gaining favor, while Bitcoin, Solana, and $HYPE face selling pressure.

Japanese game developer Gumi announced it will launch a 3 billion yen (approx. $18.3 million) crypto asset fund on Saturday in partnership with SBI Financial Services. The fund, operated by SBI Crypto Fund, will primarily invest in Bitcoin and major altcoins, employing staking, rebalancing, and hedging strategies. Gumi stated the fund aims to connect Japan's corporate sector with the crypto market and build operational experience ahead of a potential future lifting of Japan's ban on crypto ETFs. This initiative expands Gumi's crypto business, which includes managing its own substantial crypto holdings, notably in XRP. The company's annual report shows its crypto assets nearly doubled to 14.13 billion yen as of April 2026.