Цена Bitcoin(BTC)

The article discusses the significance of the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio as a key macro indicator for July, amid resurgent market volatility. Geopolitical tensions, specifically the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, triggered a spike in oil prices and renewed inflation concerns. This has increased market expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve, putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Historically, both Bitcoin and gold have performed well in July. However, the current volatile macro backdrop forces a clearer choice between the two as a hedge. While the BTC/XAU ratio is up over 4.5% for the month, indicating Bitcoin's continued outperformance, the article suggests this trend is under pressure. The ratio will serve as a critical gauge for whether capital remains in Bitcoin or rotates back into the traditional safe haven of gold as macro uncertainty persists.

According to a Glassnode analysis, the cryptocurrency market is currently in the late stages of a bear market bottom formation. Bitcoin's price has remained below key realized price and short-term holder cost benchmarks for five months, indicating deep undervaluation. A major source of sell-side pressure is from long-term holders realizing losses, with their daily loss-taking recently peaking at $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. While spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have moderated, they remain in a state of monthly net negative flows, and trading volumes are approximately 80% below their 2025 peak, signaling a lack of robust institutional demand. In derivatives markets, positioning has shifted to a cautiously bullish stance. However, options volatility surfaces still price in downside risk, and the spot price sits below the "Max Pain" strike level. The report concludes that the necessary conditions for a market bottom are in place, but a confirmed reversal requires three core signals: a sustained decline in long-term holder loss realization, a stabilization in ETF fund flows, and a sustained price recovery above the Realized Price. Until these signals emerge, a full transition to a bull market is unlikely to occur imminently.

Bitcoin is exhibiting a clear divergence between spot and derivatives markets. While futures demand has rebounded sharply, spot demand remains weak, indicating the current recovery is primarily driven by leverage. This makes the rally fragile and vulnerable to a sharp correction, especially amid renewed macro uncertainty from events like U.S.-Iran tensions. Recent data supports this cautious view: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows, and the Coinbase Premium Index turned negative, signaling weaker U.S. institutional demand. Despite Tether injecting $1 billion in new USDT, much of this liquidity appears to be sitting on the sidelines rather than flowing into Bitcoin spot purchases. This fresh capital could further fuel speculative derivatives activity instead of attracting real buyers. Historically, the current bear market of 248 days is shorter than previous major cycles (381 days in 2022, 385 days in 2018), suggesting the broader downtrend may have further room to run. In summary, Bitcoin's bear cycle remains intact, with the recovery being led by fragile derivatives speculation rather than strong spot demand.

The article, originally from Bankless, discusses how MicroStrategy's (MSTR) recent Bitcoin (BTC) sales reveal a much larger potential selling capacity than the widely reported $1.25 billion "reserve-building" cap. On July 7, MicroStrategy disclosed a sale of 3,588 BTC (~$216M) to pay dividends for its STRAT (STRC) preferred shares and replenish its USD Reserve. Crucially, the company stated this sale did not count against its stated $1.25 billion "reserve-building capacity." The analysis explains that MicroStrategy's "BTC Monetization Plan," part of its broader "Digital Credit Capital Framework," actually outlines three main purposes for selling BTC, only one of which has the $1.25B cap: 1. **Building the USD Reserve** (capped at $1.25B). 2. **Covering preferred share/ debt costs** (replenishing the reserve after payments). 3. **Funding buybacks** (up to $10B for preferred shares and $10B for MSTR common stock). The key nuance is the accounting distinction between "building" the reserve (selling BTC before making payments) and "replenishing" it (selling BTC after using reserve funds for payments). While functionally the same—converting BTC to cash for obligations—only "building" counts against the publicized $1.25B limit. This means sales for "replenishing" and the $20B+ buyback pool allow for total potential sales exceeding $30B. The article frames this as part of MicroStrategy's shift from a simple "buy and hold" Bitcoin narrative to an "active capital management" model, where BTC becomes a balance-sheet tool to manage pressures between its common stock, preferred shares, dollar reserve, and Bitcoin holdings. This creates complex trade-offs and potential conflicts of interest. The conclusion warns investors that the $1.25B figure is not a total sales ceiling. Understanding terms like "build," "replenish," and "repurchase" in MicroStrategy's disclosures is now critical, as the company navigates a new, more complex role as an actively managed entity rather than a passive Bitcoin accumulator.

Bitcoin's price rose 2.32% to $64,380.20, yet failed to breach the $80k resistance level from mid-May. While technical indicators like RSI and MACD suggest continued bullish momentum, on-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals a mixed picture. The market appears to be in a transitional phase, with U.S. investor caution evident through $10 billion in ETF outflows since October 2025 and a persistently negative Coinbase Premium. However, new large investors (whales) are accumulating BTC, absorbing selling pressure and potentially preventing steeper declines. Analyst Benjamin Cowen and others remain optimistic, pointing to historical cycles. One analyst cites a 4-year cycle model, suggesting Q4 2026 could present the next major buying opportunity, with significant potential gains in 2027. Another analyst, Adam Livingston, notes Bitcoin is currently trading only 19.2% above its realized price—well below the historical average premium of 81.9%—and that similar past valuations have led to substantial medium-term returns. Overall, despite weak short-term sentiment and a lack of new capital inflows, the community anticipates a strong future trajectory for Bitcoin based on cyclical patterns and current undervaluation.