4(4) Регулярные инвестиции

Galaxy Research Report: How Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Upgrade Changes the Prediction Market Landscape Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade, activated on May 2, introduces a third model for prediction markets. It integrates outcome-based contracts directly into HyperCore, Hyperliquid's native trading engine, creating a "house of all finance" where users can trade perpetuals, spot, and event outcomes from a single unified margin account. HIP-4 offers fully collateralized binary instruments that settle to 0 or 1 based on real-world events. Initial markets include daily BTC price thresholds and later expanded to validator-curated "canonical markets" for events like the Fed's June rate decision and May CPI data. The proposal requires no fees to open positions, charging only on close or settlement. Compared to incumbents, HIP-4's key advantage is its high-performance, on-chain infrastructure, offering sub-second finality and unified cross-margin with other products. Polymarket leads in consumer UX and long-tail market breadth via UMA's oracle, while Kalshi leads in US regulatory access and sports-focused depth. HIP-4 initially lags in consumer discovery, relying on third-party frontends. The report highlights a broader industry trend of convergence: all major platforms are moving toward a "trade everything" model. HIP-4 adds prediction markets to a perpetuals platform, while Kalshi and Polymarket are building perpetuals on their prediction markets. Key risks for HIP-4 include limited initial market breadth due to its validator-curated oracle model, the consumer discovery gap, validator centralization, and regulatory uncertainty. However, the passing of the CLARITY Act in a Senate committee offers a potential path to US regulatory clarity. Despite early-stage limitations, HIP-4 captured 20.1% of combined BTC prediction market volume within 25 days of launch. Its integrated tech stack and rapid execution present a strong case as the prediction market landscape evolves toward unified, multi-asset trading venues.

Galaxy Research Report: How Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Upgrade Changes the Prediction Market Landscape. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 protocol upgrade, activated on May 2, introduces a third model for prediction markets. While incumbents like Polymarket focus on consumer discovery and Kalshi on regulated US access, HIP-4 integrates outcome markets directly into Hyperliquid's "house of all finance." This embeds binary event contracts within HyperCore, its native on-chain order book, sharing a single margin account with perpetual and spot trading. HIP-4 offers distinct advantages: superior infrastructure with sub-second finality, ~200k orders/sec throughput, and unified cross-margin, enabling novel hedges for perpetual traders. It also features a unique validator-curated oracle model for off-chain events (e.g., Fed decisions, CPI, sports) and zero fees on opening positions. Early traction shows HIP-4 capturing ~20% of combined BTC prediction market volume within 25 days. The report highlights a broader industry trend of convergence: all major platforms are moving towards a "trade everything from one account" model. HIP-4's challenge lies in expanding market breadth and consumer discovery, currently lagging behind Polymarket's flexible UMA oracle/Kalshi's sports depth. Key risks include validator centralization, US regulatory exposure (mitigated by potential pathways like the CLARITY Act), and competitive pressure from Kalshi's newly CFTC-approved Bitcoin perpetual contract. Ultimately, HIP-4's strongest case is its technically superior, unified execution stack—a harder advantage for competitors to replicate than building consumer layers atop it. The upgrade positions Hyperliquid to contest the lucrative institutional hedging flow in the evolving prediction market arena.

Kristin Smith, President of the Solana Policy Institute and CEO of the Blockchain Association, urged the U.S. Senate to pass the CLARITY Act, emphasizing four specific priorities must be met first. The legislation aims to provide legal clarity for public blockchain operations, focusing on protecting open-source developers and infrastructure providers who do not custody assets or control transactions. Smith argued that strong developer protections, including the key Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), enhance enforcement by clearly distinguishing between different market participants, allowing authorities to target bad actors more effectively. She warned that weakening these protections could undermine the act's goal of giving builders confidence to operate in the U.S. Smith's position is to protect developers, target bad actors, preserve open-source innovation, and maintain U.S. leadership in crypto.

US CPI Preview: Headline Inflation May Top 4%, Hitting Three-Year High, Core Could Fall Short of Expectations. Wall Street's major institutions (Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley) anticipate May's headline CPI year-over-year to rise sharply to the 4.17%-4.3% range from April's 3.81%, largely driven by a significant jump in energy prices due to recent geopolitical tensions. This could mark the highest level since April 2023. In contrast, core CPI (excluding food and energy) is forecast to increase only 0.17%-0.22% month-over-month, notably below the market consensus of 0.27%-0.30%. Key moderating factors include cooling shelter inflation (OER and rent) and weaker auto insurance prices, while used car prices are expected to be flat. However, upward pressures persist within core components. Airfare, IT goods, and some non-shelter services are expected to show strength, partially offsetting the cooling trends. This divergence makes the report complex for markets: high headline inflation from transient energy shocks versus a potentially softer underlying core trend. Market pricing via inflation swaps suggests a slightly higher-than-expected headline print, historically associated with a modest dollar rally post-release. Looking ahead, the trajectory for inflation remains highly dependent on future oil price movements.

Maelstrom, the family office of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, has published the first annual report for its Bitcoin Grant Program. Over a 20-month period beginning in October 2024, the program has supported five developers, with four currently active. They are paid monthly in Bitcoin, with grants capped at $400,000 per developer annually. Two developers focus on Bitcoin Core: **Rkrux** is a prolific code reviewer, working on MuSig2 and wallet descriptor modernization. **Stratospher** focuses on critical consensus and peer-to-peer network code, fixing bugs that could cause network splits. Two others advance Bitcoin privacy: **Benalleng** develops Payjoin, a protocol that breaks common surveillance heuristics, with integrations in several wallets. **Macgyver** works on Silent Payments, enabling reusable static addresses without on-chain reuse, driving wallet adoption and standardization. The program funds only open-source Bitcoin protocol work with no commercial ties. The report highlights this model as a direct, transparent way for successful industry participants to fund the essential, unglamorous development underpinning Bitcoin's security and privacy.