MOVEPreço de Movement

Amidst a seasonal lull in trading activity on prediction markets following major sporting events like the World Cup, Polymarket is implementing significant strategic adjustments to prepare for upcoming events and boost its US operations. Key changes include a major leadership overhaul, bringing in executives from companies like Bird, Uber, Robinhood, and Coinbase to focus on growth, compliance, and risk management. A central pillar of its strategy is accelerating its US comeback. After settling with the CFTC in 2022 and exiting the US, Polymarket re-entered by acquiring CFTC-licensed QCEX in mid-2025, relaunching as Polymarket US. Since opening to US iOS users in May and launching a web version recently, its US trading volume has surged dramatically—growing from 25% of its international platform's volume in May to 62% by July. However, challenges remain. The new Chief Growth Officer must address past marketing controversies involving simulated trades and ensure compliance. Furthermore, Polymarket US still trails far behind its main US competitor, Kalshi, which recorded a $37.7 billion trading volume in July compared to Polymarket US's $5 billion. With major sports seasons and the November US midterm elections approaching, the coming months are a critical test for Polymarket's revamped strategy and its ability to capture a larger share of the crucial US prediction market.

Following a period of lower trading activity after the World Cup and during a sports offseason, Polymarket is restructuring in preparation for upcoming major sports events and the US midterm elections in November. Key personnel changes include the appointment of Travis VanderZanden, former Bird founder and Uber/Lyft executive, as Chief Growth Officer to oversee marketing. The company has also hired executives from Robinhood, Coinbase, Nasdaq, and the FBI to strengthen compliance, risk management, and regulatory functions. This push supports Polymarket's renewed focus on the US market after its 2022 exit due to regulatory issues. Its US re-entry accelerated with the 2025 acquisition of licensed exchange QCEX, rebranded as Polymarket US. After launching on iOS in May, a web version recently went live. Trading volume on Polymarket US has surged, growing from $1.77 billion in May to approximately $5 billion in July. This represents 62% of the international platform's volume, up from just 25% two months prior. VanderZanden's immediate task involves addressing past marketing controversies, including CFTC investigations into promotional practices that used simulated trades. The company has since reformed its marketing rules and partner vetting. Despite rapid growth, Polymarket US still trails the US prediction market leader, Kalshi, which saw about $37.7 billion in July volume compared to Polymarket's combined ~$13 billion. Kalshi's valuation also significantly outpaces Polymarket's. The coming autumn, with its slate of sports and political events, presents a critical test for Polymarket's US expansion and its ability to close the gap with Kalshi.

In Q2, Morgan Stanley significantly increased its crypto sector investments. It boosted its stake in Circle, raising holdings from approximately 1.46 million to 8.32 million shares. The bank also expanded its positions in spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Its stake in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) grew by about 23% in share count, though its market value fell by 18% due to Bitcoin's price decline. Holdings in other Bitcoin ETFs like Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust and Fidelity's FBTC also saw substantial increases. Investments in Ethereum products were even more aggressive, with its position in BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust surging by roughly 202%. Morgan Stanley also entered the Solana market, opening new positions in Grayscale Solana Staking and Fidelity Solana funds. Within crypto-related equities, the bank increased stakes in mining and infrastructure companies such as Cipher Digital, Core Scientific, Hut 8, and Bitdeer. Conversely, it reduced its position in Coinbase by about 550,000 shares and slashed its CleanSpark holding by over 3.1 million shares. Morgan Stanley completely exited its roughly 8 million share position in Bitfarms. *This is not investment advice.

Crypto trader DonAlt, known for accurately predicting a 700% move in XRP's price, has set a technical target for Ethereum at $10,000. However, he personally plans to exit his own long position once ETH reaches $3,000. DonAlt opened his long position around $1,900 on August 13th, acknowledging this buy at resistance during market consolidation goes against classical technical analysis. He stated he is more uncomfortable being out of a position than buying at a less-than-optimal price. He is prepared to increase his position size if the price retests the key support zone around $1,700. The trader outlined three expectation levels: an official target of $4,000, an unofficial macro target of $10,000, but a practical plan to take profits at $3,000. He joked about his tendency to exit positions early for realized gains. The analysis notes this pragmatic approach, favoring a solid 57% profit over waiting for potentially unattained five-figure prices, reflects extensive trading experience. The article concludes by noting Ethereum's price remains tightly correlated to Bitcoin's, seemingly lacking its own growth catalysts. It mentions some banks are leaning towards creating private blockchains or opting for more innovative networks with higher scalability and lower fees.

Bitcoin's sharp rise above $72,000 failed to convince prominent gold advocate and Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, who dismissed the rally as a "false breakout" and a "fake-out." Schiff attributed the price surge to the unexpected announcement from the U.S. Treasury Department regarding bond buybacks, which fueled short-term market optimism by reinforcing expectations of easier financial conditions. While acknowledging that increased liquidity can support gold prices, Schiff argued this effect would not be sustainable for Bitcoin. He maintains that investors in BTC are only "half right" in believing loose monetary policy will boost both assets, reiterating his stance that investors should sell Bitcoin and buy gold instead.