Galaxy Research has reviewed its CLARITY Act outlook downwards from 60% to 50/50 (neutral).
According to Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, the tight Senate calendar following recent President Donald Trump’s stance on a separate, unrelated bill was the main reason for the downgrade.
President Trump said Wednesday he won’t sign a housing bill unless Congress passes the SAVE Act, intensifying competition for scarce Senate floor time, and thereby hurting the CLARITY Act’s odds.
After passing the Senate Banking Committee vote last May, the bill cleared a key hurdle to proceed to the Senate floor vote.
However, before that, both the bill’s versions from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees must be reconciled into a single piece of legislation.
On a positive note, Galaxy noted there was some ‘constructive’ progress on the reconciliation efforts.
Reconciliation of the Banking and Agriculture committee texts continues at the staff level, and there are some indications that constructive negotiations continue.
However, Thorn cautioned that,
But there has been no public announcement that Banking and Agriculture have agreed on a combined bill, no release of unified legislative text, and no signal on timing for floor consideration.
He added that the sticky issues, such as stablecoin yield, ethics provision, and Section 604 (developer protections), remained largely unaddressed.
Less than four weeks to pass the CLARITY Act
That said, the Senate will take a two-week break after the 4th of July. They’ll resume on the 13th of July.
Notably, the August recess will begin on the second week of the 10th, leaving about four weeks of Senate calendar for active sessions.
So, what exactly is the issue and path forward for the bill?
The main problem is that no scheduled floor vote date has been issued. Besides, the final text of the bill has not been made public. The final text of the bill is speculated to be released in early July.
In fact, Stand With Crypto, a lobby group affiliated with Coinbase, also echoed the urgency and reinforced Thorn’s concerns.
The Senate going on recess without voting means the Clarity Act doesn’t disappear, but it slips. The Senate has a crowded calendar, and the window for Clarity continues to narrow each day.
That said, on the contentious Section 604, Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood backed a “thoughtful, nuanced” approach that does not push the market overseas again.
Overall, the bill may hit a wall if the next four weeks don’t present material progress on key issues and the Senate floor vote date.
Final Summary
- Galaxy reduced its CLARITY Act passage chance from 60% to 50%.
- Cathie Wood backed the contentious Section 604 but asked for a ‘thoughtful, nuanced’ application.
