Bitcoin (BTC) has likely reached the bottom of its latest downturn and is poised for another rally, Ark Invest Chief Executive Cathie Wood said, arguing that the current cycle has been unusually mild and that broader economic forces are turning supportive for risk assets.
The comments come as ARK Invest recently raised its long-term outlook for Bitcoin and the whole crypto market.
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A Lower Pullback, Says Cathie Wood
Wood said fears surrounding Bitcoin’s traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle are overstated this time, adding that the cryptocurrency has already worked through most of its decline.
“I know there’s a lot of fear about the four-year cycle,” Wood said.
“We didn’t have much of an up cycle by Bitcoin standards, so we think we’re pretty well through the down cycle here.”
She said Bitcoin could still face short-term volatility but is unlikely to see a deep sell-off.
“We may test in this $80- to $90,000 range on Bitcoin, but we do think that the test will be successful,” Wood said.
“It will be the shallowest four-year cycle decline in Bitcoin’s short history, and then we’re off again.”
Wood described Bitcoin as benefiting from multiple long-term structural shifts, calling it “three revolutions in one.”
“We think this is three revolutions in one, a global monetary system rules-based competing against fiat currency,” she said.
“To be sure, it is a technology revolution, and it is the leader of a new asset class.”
Bitcoin To $1 Million
In its “Big Ideas 2026” report released on Wednesday, ARK Invest said it expects the global cryptocurrency market to grow at a 61% compound annual rate to around $28 trillion by 2030.
According to the firm, Bitcoin will make up approximately 70% of that total.
Ark added that Bitcoin’s price could reach between about $950,000 and $1 million.
“Bitcoin is maturing as the leader of a new institutional asset class,” ARK said.
Three Reasons Cathie Wood Sees Markets Improving
Wood also said improving macroeconomic conditions could provide additional support for Bitcoin and broader financial markets, citing several factors she believes investors are underestimating.
1. The Economy has Already Absorbed a “Rolling Recession”
Wood said economic weakness has already played out across several sectors, reducing the risk of a sharper downturn ahead.
“Well, we think that we’ve been through a rolling recession,” she told CNBC. “We’ve seen it in housing, manufacturing, small business, consumer sentiment.”
2. Tax cuts and Investment Incentives Could Drive Growth
She pointed to tax-related factors as a potential catalyst for stronger economic activity this year.
“Thanks to tax cuts, big refunds this first quarter, but corporate tax cuts as well,” Wood said, adding that she sees “a big investment cycle ahead.”
3. Deregulation, Lower Rates and Easing Inflation
Wood said regulatory changes and improving financial conditions could further boost markets.
“Deregulation, which I think is highly underestimated in terms of its impact,” she said, alongside “lower interest rates and lower inflation.”
Summing up her outlook, Wood said the combination of factors could create an unusually favorable environment for investors.
“Sounds like Goldilocks,” she said.
“That is all going to play out this year and be very good for the financial markets.”
