Author: danny
In the eyes of most people, Meme coins are irrational狂欢, a fool's casino. But from a mathematical perspective, every ten-thousand-fold myth is not accidental; it is actually a middle school spatial geometry application problem.
This article proposes a颠覆性的 perspective: The market value of Meme coins is not "pumped up," but "propped up." The value of a Meme can be calculated!
We are accustomed to盯着 the fluctuations of the Z-axis (price height), but ignore that what determines life and death is the base radius constructed by the X (narrative density) and Y (propagation nodes) axes. A Meme with only height and no base is just a very thin "needle," easily toppled by the wind; only a constantly expanding consensus radius can support a stable, geometrically growing wealth cone under the gravity of capital.
Note: This article is a popular science article on "financial physics," not a rigorous econometric paper, and is only intended to provide a new perspective for viewing Memes.
1. The Beginning of the Theory: The Three-Dimensional Coordinate System of Meme
In the current cryptocurrency market, Meme coins are often seen as irrational狂欢. But is that really the case?
If we strip away the emotional noise, KOL shilling, and community蹭热度, we will find that the birth and death of every phenomenal Meme follows a strict mathematical logic.
The essence of a Meme coin is the tokenization of the attention economy. Its market value is not determined by traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) but is jointly constructed by the breadth of the narrative, community resonance, and the explosive power of funds.
For better discussion, we define these factors as the XYZ three-dimensional growth spiral model.
These three axes are not just independent variables; they have strong reflexivity—meaning a change in one variable reinforces another, forming a positive feedback loop.
Let's explain these parameters:
X-axis: Narrative Density and Cultural Meme
Definition: The "genes" of the Meme. Includes the core梗 (e.g., Doge), origin story (e.g., CZ's pet's name), cultural symbols (e.g., Pepe the Frog), and the richness of community二次创作.
Key metrics: Narrative originality, replicability, emotional resonance.
Y-axis: Propagation Potential and Node Network
Definition: The transmission pipeline of information. From top-tier nodes (CZ, Elon Musk) to secondary nodes (Alpha Callers, KOLs), and then to末端 nodes (ordinary retail investors).
Key metrics: Node weight, propagation coverage, shilling frequency.
Z-axis: Fund Flow and Liquidity Carrier
Definition: The monetization result of attention. Includes on-chain capital inflow, liquidity depth—i.e., the沉淀 value or the total sell pressure it can承接.
Key metrics: Market cap, trading volume, turnover rate, and liquidity (the most important metric).
2. Diagram of the Growth Curve from XYZ Axis Interaction
If we plot these three axes in three-dimensional space, the growth trajectory of a successful Meme generally shows a spiral upward trend: (as shown below)
Bottom (Start): X, Y, Z are all接近 zero.
Ignition: Y-axis surges (KOL shilling), driving the Z-axis (price) to jump. The trajectory line tilts towards the Y-Z plane.
Spin: Z-axis growth attracts more Y (more people discussing), Y激发 X's二次创作 (enriching content). The trajectory line begins to rotate around the X-Y-Z axes.
Ascension: As X upgrades (X'), the cone's base area expands (consensus scope broadens), and the Z-axis (market cap) reaches new heights.
Failed Meme (Rug Pull): Typically表现为 Y-axis爆发后, Z-axis briefly pumps, but the X-axis fails to跟进升级 (narrative匮乏), causing the Z-axis to迅速坍塌 to zero. The trajectory line shows an inverted V-shaped fall.
3. Evolution of the Growth Curve: The Four-Stage Spiral Ascent
From the previous section, we know the lifecycle of a Meme is not linear but a vortex constantly expanding around the Z-axis (fund flow). In this section, we will analyze it based on the four development stages of a Meme.
The diagram below shows its standard evolutionary path: (I was also stunned, AI drew it so炫酷?!🤣)
(Note: For ease of reading and understanding, I won't write it in paragraph form)
Phase 1: Ignition (The Ignition) —— X + Y → ΔZ
A powerful narrative (X) combined with a high-weight propagation node (Y) instantly ignites funds (Z).
Taking Broccoli as an example:
X (Narrative): On February 13, 2025, CZ revealed his pet dog's name as "Broccoli." This was not just a simple pet name but carried deeper metaphors of "CZ's comeback" and "BNB ecosystem回归," and "Broccoli" itself has a unique auditory symbol and visual image (green =上涨).
Y (Node): CZ himself, as a top-tier traffic node in the industry (Y-Max), the propagation potential of one of his tweets even exceeds a Super Bowl ad.
Z (Result): Funds responded instantly. Hundreds of同名 tokens quickly emerged on Solana and BNB Chain, with the leading token's market cap突破 $1.5 billion within hours. Early snipers made millions in profits within 20 minutes.
The growth of the Z-axis in this phase is脉冲式的,完全依赖 on the Y-axis's single-point爆发.
Phase 2: Reflexivity Established (The Reflexivity Loop) —— Z↑→ Y↑
Price (Z) itself becomes the best advertisement and propagation channel (Y).
When the Z-axis (market cap) rapidly pumps, creating the wealth effect of a "hundred-fold golden dog," it反向作用于 the Y-axis.
Passive Propagation: KOLs who originally didn't pay attention to the Meme start mentioning it主动ly to蹭热度 (traffic capture).
FOMO Diffusion: The top gainers list itself is the strongest propagation node. Media reports (e.g., "an address profited $6 million") further expand the propagation radius.
BNB Chain's Strategy: BNB Chain official artificially injected energy into the Z-axis through the "Meme Innovation Competition" and "Daily Airdrop" plan (buying 33 BNB worth of golden dogs daily to airdrop to the community) to maintain Y-axis activity.
Phase 3: Narrative Upgrade and Solidification (Narrative Upgrade) —— Y_expansion → X'
The expanded propagation network (Y) forces the narrative (X) to undergo secondary iteration (X').
Relying solely on the梗 of "CZ's dog" (X) cannot support long-term market cap. When the Y-axis expands to hundreds of thousands of token-holding addresses, the community begins to spontaneously create new narratives (X').
From "Meme" to "Culture": The community starts making memes, establishing the "Broccoli Church," and赋予 the token某种 spiritual寄托 (e.g., "resistance against VC coins," "symbol of BNB Chain's revival").
Utilitarian Narrative: For example, FLOKI evolved from a单纯 Meme to an ecosystem with the Valhalla game and DeFi protocols. This is also an upgrade from X → X'.
Phase 4: Value Black Hole (The Value Black Hole) —— X'→ Z_max
The upgraded narrative (X') can carry larger-scale funds (Z).
When the X-axis completes the upgrade from "shitcoin" to "totem," the upper limit of the Z-axis is opened.
Change in Fund Nature: From early "fast in, fast out" smart money to "diamond hands" community funds and institutional funds attempting to make allocations.
Infrastructure吸血: At this point, the Meme is no longer just a customer acquisition tool; it begins to反哺 on-chain infrastructure. The huge trading volume brings substantial BNB burn and fee income to BNB Chain, while also providing a liquidity entry point for other applications within the ecosystem (e.g., Aster derivatives trading, Pancake's trading volume).
4. A Cone Volume Formula Sparks a Conjecture?
The attentive you might notice that the 3D graph above looks a bit like a cone. Is it possible that we can apply this cone volume formula
V = 1⁄3 * Base Area * Height to the growth model of Meme coins?
4.1. Variable Mapping: Constructing the Growth Model
We map the geometric elements of the cone to the variables x, y, z you proposed:
Base Radius r = x * y : The boundary of social consensus.
x (Content/Narrative): This is the "gene" of the Meme. Good content determines the传染性 of consensus.
y (Propagation Nodes): This is the community, KOLs, and token-holding addresses. Nodes determine the coverage of the narrative.
r (Radius): Represents the physical boundary of consensus. A larger radius means more people know and are willing to believe the story, making the foundation more stable.
Height h = z (Funds/Sentiment Leverage): The speed and density of fund inflow determine the vertical rise in price.
Volume V = Market Cap (Market Cap): The final manifested market size.
4.1.1 Why is the radius x * y squared?
In the world of Memes, the combination of narrative and nodes has a network effect.
If the content x is just平庸 imitation, even with many nodes y, the radius r is hard to expand.
When a highly penetrating narrative (x) meets high-frequency interactive propagation nodes (y), the consensus area expands exponentially. The squared term in the formula means: a slight expansion of the underlying community consensus leads to a平方倍数增长 in the potential supported volume (market cap).
4.1.2 Why is funding z the linear height?
Funding z determines how high the price goes. But in the Meme model, funding height without base area (x and y) support is unstable.
If there is only z (whales入场拉盘) without r (broad retail consensus), the cone becomes an extremely thin "needle," easily toppled by the slightest disturbance.
True blue-chip Memes (like DOGE, PEPE) have huge base diameters, so even if the funding height h fluctuates, the overall volume remains massive.
4.1.3 The Charm of Coefficient 1⁄3: Meme Attenuation and Attention Decay
Scientists found that the volume of a cone is only one-third that of a cylinder with the same base and height. In the Meme market, this represents the frictional loss of attention, but 1⁄3 is just a hypothetical value; in reality, it might be 1 / 300.
Not everyone who hears the narrative will buy.
Not every dollar entering translates into long-term held market cap.
This coefficient reminds us: A Meme's market cap can never fully cover the attention流量 it reaches; there is a lot of泡沫蒸发 and attention转移.
4.2 Trajectory Analysis: From "Point" to "Cone"
The upward trajectory of a Meme coin usually follows the generation process of a cone:
Germination: Narrative x is just born, nodes y are极少, funds z are just starting to注入. The volume is negligible.
Rooting Downward: As more nodes y join, narrative x begins to裂变. The most important thing in this stage is not price (height) but increasing the number of token-holding addresses and community activity (expanding radius r).
Vertical Eruption: When the consensus base is large enough, the inflow of funds z produces a惊人的杠杆效应. Since the base radius is already solidified, adding the same z causes the volume V to expand rapidly.
A successful Meme coin trajectory essentially first expands the base, then increases the height.
5. Boundaries and Limitations of the Cone Volume Formula
5.1 Defining "Healthy" and "Deformed" Growth States
This model sets r (narrative × nodes) as a squared term and z (funds) as a linear term. It has two main obvious functions:
Captures Network Effects: In the Meme field, a 10x increase in narrative propagation (r) can often support a 100x growth in market cap (V). This explains why some coins, even if their funding (h) hasn't reached the爆发点, as long as the community base (r) is solid enough, their valuation potential jumps geometrically.
Explains the "Crash" Physical Structure: If a project's radius r (consensus) is萎缩, even if you invest more funds z to pump, the cone's volume will rapidly shrink due to the collapse of the base.
Furthermore, through this geometric model, we can instantly identify two typical failure models:
"Telephone Pole" Model (High z, extremely low r): Only大户对倒 or capital盘拉升, lacking community discussion and narrative resonance. This cone is extremely unstable; once funds z withdraw, the volume instantly goes to zero.
"Pancake" Model (Large r, extremely low z): The community is very lively, the narrative is good, but there's just no funds entering. This cone has area but no volume, representing a "all talk, no action" poor community.
5.2 Limitations
In real secondary market applications, there are several "physical deformations" to note:
Coupling Between Variables: In the formula, r and h are independent variables, but in the Meme market, an increase in z (funds) will in turn strengthen x (narrative) and y (propagation nodes). This is the famous "convinced by the pump" effect. The higher the price, the more the narrative seems like truth, and the faster the nodes扩散.
Dynamic Nature of the 1⁄3 Coefficient: In extremely疯狂 bull markets, this coefficient might approach 1 (becoming a cylinder), as emotion smooths out all losses; in bear markets, this coefficient might become 1/1000, meaning绝大部分 attention cannot be converted into purchasing power.
Lack of Time Dimension: A cone is a static geometric body, but Memes have timeliness. Introducing a "decay rate" would make this model more perfect, as the narrative x of a Meme naturally contracts with aesthetic fatigue.
6. Case Analysis of Broccoli
6.1. Elements of Broccoli
x (Content/Narrative): "CZ personally certified" — This is a top-tier narrative and influence.
y (Propagation Nodes): CZ's tens of millions of followers, BNB Chain official account, Four.Meme platform, and全网埋伏 "scientists" and PVP players.
z (Funds/Market Cap):存量 funds on the BNB chain, and "hot money"跨链 from other chains.
6.2. Four-Stage Trajectory Restoration
Phase 1: Bottom (Start) — The Foggy Period
Before CZ's teaser on February 13, 2025. x, y, z were almost zero, but the market was full of "static electricity." The whole net began guessing the name, and numerous微小 cones appeared in wrong directions like BNBDog, CZDoge.
Phase 2: Ignition (Ignition) — Narrative Nuclear Explosion
CZ发布推文, officially announcing the dog's name is Broccoli with a picture. The y-axis (nodes) instantly爆表. Twitter, Telegram channels spread it almost秒级同步.
Since x (narrative) was given directly by CZ, its authenticity was certain. Funds z疯狂涌入, hundreds or thousands of同名 tokens were instantly created on platforms like Four.Meme. The trajectory line at this moment showed an almost vertical tilt on the y-z plane.
Phase 3: Spin (Spin) — Jungle Melee (PVP)
2-12 hours after the name reveal, thousands of Broccolis appeared on the market. To compete for the "real one," various communities began疯狂二次创作 (competition of x).
At this point, the model is in a rotating state. Some tokens relied on community spontaneous buying to increase z, some relied on more interesting memes to enrich x.
Only those Broccolis that could continuously激发 y (more node discussion) and enrich x (narrative upgrade, e.g., doing charity, making games) could maintain the rotation. The rest, due to x匮乏, lost rotational force and directly entered the collapse procedure.
Phase 4: Ascension (Ascension) — Consensus Precipitation
Eventually, only 1-2 "chosen ones" stood out, gaining attention from the BNB Foundation or recognition from mainstream exchanges.
By now, the base area r = x * y has solidified due to long-term community building. The narrative upgraded from "CZ's dog" to "BNB Chain's mascot." Even if funds z fluctuate, due to the extremely stable base, the市值 cone still stands firm.
6.3 Warning: The Sublimated Broccolis
In that 2025 melee, 99.99% of Broccolis fell into an "inverted V-shaped" fall.
They relied on假冒 or internal盘拉升 to achieve a very high z-axis during the ignition phase. The Dev was purely for收割, with no intention of managing x (content) and y (real community nodes). So this cone was an extremely thin "needle." After the z-axis peaked, since the base radius r approached zero, it instantly lost balance, the trajectory line fell vertically, leaving a mess.
CZ's Broccoli case proves: The ultimate battle of Meme coins is not about who issues the token first (z), but about who can铺成 the largest circle (r) from the point of "CZ's pet" (x) through the power of the community (y).
Broccoli should be the largest-scale "same-base-area cone speed race" in Meme in 2025. Under the same x narrative, tens of thousands of projects competed for y and z, ultimately proving that only "narrative upgrade + node stickiness" can换取 market cap突破.
7. Case Analysis of Pnut
Deconstruction of Pnut's Three-Dimensional Coordinates
X-axis (Narrative Density - Emotion & Justice): This is not just a squirrel meme; it carries the narrative of "resisting excessive expansion of public power" and "avenging innocent life." From "a cute squirrel → a hero killed by the system → a political totem of the MAGA movement." Its narrative density reached a rare transnational, cross-class resonance in Meme history.
Y-axis (Propagation Nodes - Dimensionality Reduction Strike): Top node Y_max: Elon Musk连续发推, followed by顶级流量 like Joe Rogan. These nodes are not mere "shilling KOLs" but giant nodes with social agenda-setting能力.
Z-axis (Fund Carrier - Sentiment Leverage): The极速 liquidity on the Solana chain,加上 lightning-fast listing on顶级 CEXs like Binance, enabled funds z to快速流入.
Stage 1. Ignition Period: Injection of Tragic Narrative Genes
x (justice/revenge) instantly formed, y (local community) began to扩散.
The trajectory弹起 vertically from the origin. The actions of the New York Environmental Protection Agency injected Pnut with a highly penetrating x gene. At this time, z (funds) was still低迷 on-chain, but the energy at the base was already accumulating.
Stage 2. Spin Period: "Gravity Pull" from Top Nodes
The Y-axis jumped in magnitude due to Elon Musk's intervention (Y → Y_max).
The暴涨 of price z attracted全网 attention. Since Elon's tweets have极强的自反性, every time the price doubled, it attracted more traditional media and political KOLs (new nodes) to join the discussion. The trajectory line began to剧烈旋转 in three-dimensional space, and the radius r rapidly expanded.
Stage 3. Ascension Period: From "Squirrel" to "Political Totem"
The X-axis completed ascension (upgraded from "animal protection" to "US election/resistance against the system").
This was Pnut's most stable step. Because of the narrative x upgrade, the cone's base area r = x*y was no longer limited to the crypto circle. Pnut at this stage was no longer a shitcoin but a cultural asset. Even if funds z experienced阶段性回调, the huge consensus base could承接 the selling pressure.
Stage 4. Value Black Hole: Collapse and Reconstruction of Blue-Chip Consensus
Listed on顶级 exchanges like Binance, funds z reached peak.
A huge V (market cap) had formed. It began to suck in liquidity within the Solana ecosystem like a black hole. At this point, Pnut's cone had completely hardened, becoming the model that all subsequent animal Memes tried to imitate.
Epilogue
After reading so much theoretical analysis, you ask me, as an ordinary user, how should I identify, participate in, and embrace the opportunities of memes on BNB Chain, Solana, Base, Xlayer? How can I catch the big opportunities? Get the big results?
If you want to know what happens next, please listen to the next分解.
