Why CLARITY Act faces crucial test as approval odds drop to 42%

ambcryptoPublicado em 2026-02-24Última atualização em 2026-02-24

Resumo

The CLARITY Act faces a critical test as its approval odds on Polymarket dropped sharply from 72% to 42%, reflecting declining market confidence. The White House is mediating between crypto firms (like Coinbase and Ripple) advocating for stablecoin features such as programmability and rewards, and banking groups concerned about deposit outflows and financial stability. A key disagreement revolves around whether crypto companies should be allowed to offer high yields on stablecoins, which banks fear could weaken the traditional financial system. The White House has set a March 1 deadline for a compromise, warning that failure could stall the bill. The latest draft imposes strict rules, with severe penalties for attempts to disguise interest payments. Its future also depends on Senator Tim Scott’s support. While some industry leaders remain optimistic about passage by April, the political deadlock and tight timeline pose significant roadblocks.

As expectations grow around the possible approval of the CLARITY Act, the White House held its third round of talks this week, where a so-called “compromise” began to take shape.

During the event held at ETHDenver, Patrick Witt from the White House Crypto Council said that the gap between both sides has “shrunk considerably” after a long private meeting last week.

On one side were major crypto players, including Coinbase, Ripple, and Andreessen Horowitz, advocating for the preservation of stablecoins’ unique features, such as programmability and rewards.

The other side included major banking groups, such as the American Bankers Association and the Bank Policy Institute, which focused on safeguarding the traditional banking system.

What is the main point of disagreement?

That being said, the main disagreement comes from fear of the unknown. Banks worry that if crypto companies are allowed to offer high rewards on stablecoins, people may pull their money out of banks. This could weaken banks and harm the economy.

However, crypto supporters see this differently. They believe banks are trying to block competition. In their view, banning yield gives banks unfair control over people’s savings and slows down innovation.

Now that the White House is taking direct control of the draft law, the crypto industry knows regulation is coming.

The White House has set a firm March 1 deadline, warning that if negotiators fail to finalize the bill by then, it could stall or collapse.

The latest draft includes strict rules to prevent loopholes. If companies try to disguise interest as “rewards,” they could face action from the SEC, Treasury, and CFTC, with fines of up to $500,000 per day.

This shows the administration is focused on tight control, not a soft compromise, keeping stablecoins close to the traditional banking system.

Roadblocks remain

However, the bill’s future still depends on Senator Tim Scott, who has yet to reschedule a key meeting. If talks succeed, the long delay may finally end. If not, the CLARITY Act could remain stuck in political deadlock.

Remarking on the same, Witt said,

“I believe if we solve this, it’s going to start a domino effect here, and I think things could move pretty fast once it’s resolved.”

Weighing in on the sentiment, Dan Gambardello added,

“Seems like they’re just playing games...”

Source: Dan Gambardello/X

Even though Patrick Witt says talks are improving and both sides are working honestly, many people in the market think the deal may still fail.

CLARITY Act odds are decreasing

In just one day, the odds on Polymarket for the CLARITY Act passing dropped sharply, from 72% to 42%. This shows that traders and investors are losing confidence.

Data from Santiment also suggests that people are starting to expect the bill to stall or collapse.

But some people are still optimistic,

Additionally, many leaders in the crypto industry are still hopeful about the CLARITY Act.

On the 20th of February, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse also said that he believes the bill could pass as early as April.

For now, the crypto community and investors are waiting nervously. They want to see if Washington can finally deliver the clear rules it has been promising for years.


Final Summary

  • The CLARITY Act is entering its most critical phase, with the 1st of March deadline leaving little room for further delays.
  • Talks between crypto firms and banks have narrowed differences, but key disagreements over stablecoin rewards remain unresolved.

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the main point of disagreement between crypto companies and banks regarding the CLARITY Act?

AThe main disagreement stems from banks' fear that if crypto companies are allowed to offer high rewards on stablecoins, people may withdraw their money from traditional banks, potentially weakening the banking system and harming the economy. Crypto supporters, however, view this as banks trying to block competition and maintain unfair control over people's savings, which slows down innovation.

QWhat is the deadline set by the White House for finalizing the CLARITY Act, and what is the consequence of missing it?

AThe White House has set a firm deadline of March 1st. It has warned that if negotiators fail to finalize the bill by then, the legislation could stall or collapse entirely.

QAccording to the article, what has happened to the market's prediction for the CLARITY Act's approval?

AThe odds for the CLARITY Act passing on Polymarket dropped sharply from 72% to 42% in just one day, indicating that traders and investors are losing confidence and starting to expect the bill to stall or fail.

QWho is a key political figure whose support is critical for the future of the CLARITY Act?

ASenator Tim Scott is a key figure, as the bill's future depends on him rescheduling a crucial meeting. His actions will determine if the long delay ends or if the act remains in political deadlock.

QWhat are the potential penalties for companies that try to disguise interest payments as 'rewards' under the latest draft of the act?

ACompanies that try to disguise interest as 'rewards' could face enforcement action from the SEC, Treasury, and CFTC, with fines of up to $500,000 per day for such violations.

Leituras Relacionadas

In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns in an interview that the current AI boom shows classic bubble characteristics, which could lead to significant economic downturns as seen in past cycles like 1929 or 2000. He explains that speculative enthusiasm, fueled by debt and overvaluation, often precedes a crash when rising rates or taxation force asset sales, causing widespread losses and recession. Dalio also outlines his "Big Cycle" theory, describing an approximate 80-year pattern where widening wealth gaps, massive government deficits, and shifting geopolitical power (like China's rise) create internal conflict and global instability. He emphasizes that we are in a late-cycle, transitional phase where traditional powers like the US and UK face decline. For personal wealth protection, Dalio advises diversification beyond cash into assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and particularly gold, which he prefers over Bitcoin. While he holds about 1% of his portfolio in Bitcoin as a non-printable hard asset, he views gold as more secure from technological or governmental threats. Regarding AI's impact, Dalio believes it will disproportionately benefit capital owners, worsening inequality by replacing both physical and cognitive labor. He suggests that human intuition and emotional intelligence, combined with AI, will be key for future workers. On taxation, Dalio argues that wealth taxes are impractical and risk triggering asset sell-offs, reducing productive investment. He points to the UK as a cautionary example of debt, low productivity, and political strife. Geopolitically, Dalio foresees a more regionalized world, with the US showing weakness in prolonged conflicts like with Iran, akin to past imperial declines. The ideal outcome, he suggests, is coexisting powerful blocs (e.g., Americas, China-Asia Pacific) without major war.

marsbitHá 3h

In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

marsbitHá 3h

Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

South Korean stock market sees a dramatic shift in fund flows. On July 31, foreign investors made a record net purchase of approximately KRW 7.2 trillion in KOSPI stocks, marking a fundamental reversal from the persistent large-scale net outflows seen in previous months. This contributed to a significant narrowing of foreign net selling in July to KRW 9.8 trillion, down sharply from KRW 48.4 trillion in June and KRW 44.5 trillion in May. Simultaneously, domestic institutional pressure eased. South Korean pension funds and asset managers turned to a net buying position in July, purchasing KRW 1.0 trillion worth of KOSPI shares, contrasting with net sales in May and June. Market volatility is expected to be dampened by new financial regulations. Effective July 31, the Financial Services Commission tightened access for retail investors to single-stock leveraged ETFs by raising the minimum cash deposit requirement. Trading volumes for these products subsequently dropped to about 50% of their monthly average. Citigroup Research maintains its year-end KOSPI target of 10,000 points. The firm cites several supportive factors: the substantial easing of headwinds from capital outflows, a robust fundamental outlook for the semiconductor sector, historically low market valuations, strong economic fundamentals, and the potential for policy support from financial authorities if needed.

marsbitHá 3h

Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

marsbitHá 3h

Thanks to Dice Rolls, Bitcoin Keys Are Stored Offline, But Not Everyone Will Do It

The article discusses using dice rolls to generate secure Bitcoin wallet seeds, providing entropy independent of potentially flawed hardware random number generators. It explains that each fair dice roll offers about 2.585 bits of entropy, with around 50 rolls needed for a standard 12-word seed phrase and 99+ recommended for higher security. This method gained attention after a vulnerability was revealed in some Coldcard hardware wallets, where a faulty firmware RNG (dating back to 2021) compromised generated keys. The analysis notes that while a dice-generated main seed was safe from this specific flaw, other Coldcard functions (like creating paper wallets, backup keys, or passwords) could still be vulnerable if they used the defective RNG. The piece argues that while dice-based entropy is technically robust, the manual process is error-prone, tedious, and unrealistic for most new users, who might make mistakes in recording or inputting rolls. It concludes that while manual entropy generation should remain an option for advanced users, the long-term goal is to develop reliable, user-friendly hardware and software that securely generates randomness without requiring specialized knowledge. Coldcard users are advised to check their firmware version and replace any secondary secrets (like paper wallet keys) created with vulnerable devices, while also considering multi-signature setups with devices from different manufacturers for added security.

cryptonews.ruHá 9h

Thanks to Dice Rolls, Bitcoin Keys Are Stored Offline, But Not Everyone Will Do It

cryptonews.ruHá 9h

Trading

Spot
活动图片