Wall Street Shorts ETH: Vitalik Knows and Is Front-Running, Tom Lee Remains Deluded

marsbitPublicado em 2026-03-06Última atualização em 2026-03-06

Resumo

Wall Street short-selling firm Culper Research has disclosed a significant short position against ETH and related securities, including Bitmine (BMNR). The firm argues that Ethereum’s token economic model was broken following the Fusaka upgrade in December 2025. According to the report, Vitalik Buterin is aware of the issue and has been selling ETH, while prominent bull Tom Lee continues to invest despite what the report describes as clear signs of decline. Culper claims that the surge in on-chain activity post-Fusaka—cited by Lee as evidence of adoption—is largely driven by address poisoning and dust attacks, not genuine usage. Their analysis indicates that 95% of new wallet growth comes from dust addresses, poisoning attacks have tripled, and such transactions now account for 22.5% of all Ethereum activity. The upgrade increased the gas limit from 45M to 60M, aiming to expand capacity, but gas fees fell by ~90% instead of the projected 10–30%. Culper attributes this to a miscalculation in Layer-1 demand elasticity by Vitalik and developers, using outdated models. The report also notes declining validator earnings and a shift of developers and institutional activity to Solana, which it says is outperforming Ethereum in key metrics. The firm draws a parallel to past tech giants like Netscape and Nokia, suggesting Ethereum may face a similar decline absent structural changes.

This article is from:Culper Research

Compiled | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina); Translator | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Editor's Note: On March 6, Wall Street short-selling firm Culper Research suddenly published an article announcing that it is shorting ETH and related securities such as BMNR. Culper Research's logic is that Vitalik and other developers miscalculated Ethereum's demand elasticity before the Fusaka upgrade, leading to the upgrade damaging ETH's token economic model. Culper Research also mentioned that Vitalik is well aware of this and is actively front-running with practical actions, while the deluded Tom Lee is heading toward a dead end.

In response to the firm's massive shorting, Vitalik himself and Tom Lee have not yet responded, but Vitalik's father, Dmitry Buterin (dima.eth), responded by saying: "When you see the phrase 'Vitalik knows this and is selling,' you don't need to read further. They are clowns craving attention, not researchers."

Below is the original content from Culper Research, compiled by Odaily Planet Daily. Compiling this article does not mean we agree with Culper Research's views, but rather to present the perspective of some Wall Street institutions on ETH and their market煽动.

Latest disclosure: We are shorting ETH and ETH-related stocks, including Bitmine (BMNR).

We believe that after the Fusaka upgrade in December 2025, ETH's token economic model has been broken. Vitalik knows this and is selling; while ETH's staunchest bull, Tom Lee, continues to add ineffective investments. ETH will continue to fall.

Tom Lee's Bitmine has been defending ETH, claiming that "ETH is not in a death spiral due to increasing utility." He cited the surge in active addresses and transaction numbers on Ethereum after the Fusaka upgrade as evidence of so-called "improved fundamentals" and institutional adoption, but he is completely wrong.

According to Tom Lee's own logic, if Ethereum's on-chain activity does not reflect real usage growth and fundamental improvement, then ETH is indeed in a death spiral.

And our research shows that this is exactly what is happening.

We conducted a comprehensive analysis of on-chain data from January 2025 to February 2026, and the results show that what Lee calls "institutional adoption driving Ethereum's activity growth" can actually be explained by a large number of low-value address poisoning and wallet dusting behaviors. These behaviors were triggered by the excess block space after the Fusaka upgrade.

After the Fusaka upgrade:

  • 95% of new wallet growth comes from newly created dust addresses;
  • Address poisoning attacks increased by more than 3 times;
  • Poisoning behavior explains over 50% of Ethereum's transaction growth;
  • Poisoning transactions now account for 22.5% of all Ethereum transactions;

The Fusaka upgrade increased the gas limit from 45M to 60M, aiming to expand Ethereum Layer1's capacity. Vitalik and the protocol team previously predicted that gas fees would drop by 10%–30%, but the reality is that gas fees dropped by about 90%.

Vitalik and the validators made a serious miscalculation regarding Layer1 demand elasticity. They used outdated mathematical models (based on assumptions from before EIP-1559 and before Layer2 emerged), thereby overestimating Layer1 demand by 3 to 9 times. This is also why we believe Vitalik is selling large amounts of ETH. On January 30, Vitalik announced in advance that he would sell 16,384 ETH to fund the Ethereum Foundation's "austerity period," but since then, he has sold over 19,300 ETH and is still selling.

Vitalik understands what Tom Lee does not — ETH's token economic model has been broken.

We personally documented Ethereum network address poisoning. We created two new addresses and transferred between them. Within 5 minutes, we were hit by an address poisoning attack. We encourage readers to verify this phenomenon themselves. Currently, the rate of losses due to poisoning attacks has increased by more than 8 times compared to before the Fusaka upgrade.

Additionally, the increase in the gas limit has hit Ethereum's validators群体, as validators now see a 40%–50% decline in tip income per unit of gas. Falling yields will weaken staking demand and high-value transaction activity, further undermining institutional adoption. This flywheel has now started to reverse.

Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to lose market share to Solana and its own Layer2 networks.

  • Solana developer count grew by 29% in 2025;
  • Ethereum developer growth was only 6%;
  • Talent is leaving the Ethereum ecosystem;
  • Institutions like Visa and Citigroup have chosen Solana for DeFi applications;
  • Solana DEX trading volume is already more than double that of Ethereum.

During the dot-com bubble era, Netscape and Nokia dominated the market for over 10 years, but the real winners were Google and Apple. We believe Ethereum is in a similar situation — we think Ethereum's token economic model has collapsed, Tom Lee is trapped in his own position, and ETH's price will continue to fall.

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the main argument presented by Culper Research for shorting ETH?

ACulper Research argues that the Fusaka upgrade in December 2025 broke Ethereum's token economic model. They claim the upgrade created a massive oversupply of block space, leading to a 90% drop in gas fees and a surge in spam activities like address poisoning and dusting attacks, which artificially inflate on-chain metrics. They believe this has triggered a death spiral for ETH.

QAccording to the report, what evidence does Culper provide to dispute Tom Lee's claim of 'improving fundamentals'?

ACulper disputes Tom Lee's claims by presenting on-chain data analysis showing that 95% of new wallet growth comes from dust addresses, address poisoning attacks have tripled, and these spam activities account for over 50% of transaction growth and 22.5% of all Ethereum transactions post-upgrade, rather than genuine adoption.

QWhat role does the article claim Vitalik Buterin is playing in this situation?

AThe article claims Vitalik Buterin is aware that the token economic model is broken and is 'front-running' the market by selling his ETH. It cites that he has sold over 19,300 ETH since announcing a sale of 16,384 ETH on January 30th to fund the Ethereum Foundation's 'austerity period'.

QHow did the Fusaka upgrade allegedly impact Ethereum validators?

AThe Fusaka upgrade's increase in the gas limit led to a 40-50% decrease in tip revenue per unit of gas for validators. This decline in yield is predicted to weaken staking demand and high-value transaction activity, further damaging institutional adoption.

QWhat broader market trend does Culper Research compare Ethereum's situation to?

ACulper Research compares Ethereum's situation to the internet bubble era, drawing a parallel to how former market leaders like Netscape and Nokia dominated for over a decade but were ultimately surpassed by new technologies like Google and Apple. They suggest Ethereum is losing its dominance to competitors like Solana.

Leituras Relacionadas

STAR 50 Soars 10.73%, Why Did A-Shares Stage a "V-Shaped Reversal"?

After a prolonged decline, the Chinese A-share market staged a strong rally on July 21. The STAR 50 index surged 10.73%, its largest single-day gain in nearly a year, leading a broad-based "V-shaped" reversal. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index gained 4.81%, and the ChiNext Index jumped 7.05%. Total market turnover reached 2.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 256.1 billion yuan from the previous session, with over 3,100 stocks advancing. The semiconductor sector spearheaded the rebound, with related ETFs posting significant gains. Analysts attribute the surge to three converging factors. First, coordinated capital inflows from "national team" institutions, insurance funds, listed company buybacks, and fund house self-purchases have bolstered market liquidity and confidence. Second, supportive policy signals, including commitments from regulators to ensure stable market operations, provided a favorable backdrop. Third, a stabilization and recovery in overseas markets, notably South Korea, created a positive external environment. Institutions suggest the most severe panic selling phase for the tech sector has likely passed, following a significant digestion of crowded positions and leveraged funds. While short-term volatility may persist, the medium to long-term outlook remains underpinned by enduring trends like AI computing demand expansion and semiconductor localization. The market's focus now shifts to the sustainability of supportive fund flows, earnings reports, and upcoming catalysts from the global AI industry chain.

marsbitHá 29m

STAR 50 Soars 10.73%, Why Did A-Shares Stage a "V-Shaped Reversal"?

marsbitHá 29m

U.S. Tech Momentum Stocks Post Largest Single-Day Gain Ever, But Is the Plunge Over?

US tech momentum stocks staged a sharp rebound on Tuesday (July 21st). Morgan Stanley's TMT Momentum Factor surged over 12%, marking its largest single-day gain on record, exceeding even peaks from the 2000 dot-com bubble. Key momentum indices from Goldman Sachs also posted their strongest daily performances in years. The rally was led by semiconductors, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping 4.6%. This rebound followed three consecutive down days and a cumulative 33% plunge in momentum stocks, one of the steepest drawdowns since the dot-com era. Analysts attribute the surge largely to a short squeeze. Heavy selling had pushed high-beta momentum stocks into deeply oversold territory, forcing many short sellers, particularly in Asia, to cover their positions, creating a self-reinforcing buying spiral. However, the rebound's internals appear weak. Trading volume was notably low, and advancing stocks still lagged decliners on the S&P 500, indicating a narrow, concentrated rally rather than broad market participation. Diverging views emerge on the outlook. BTIG warns the bounce has hit key resistance and recommends selling into strength, citing extreme volatility and historical parallels to past market tops. Conversely, Goldman Sachs and UBS believe the momentum unwind is nearing its end, suggesting it may be time to gradually add exposure, as positioning has been significantly reduced. They caution, however, that high volatility warrants a measured approach, potentially using defined-risk strategies. The upcoming earnings season, particularly reports from major tech firms like Alphabet, is seen as a critical test for the rally's sustainability. Simultaneously, bond markets flashed a warning, with yields rising partly due to spiking oil prices. Analysts note that if long-term Treasury yields break decisively higher, it could pose a significant headwind for equities, especially growth stocks.

marsbitHá 36m

U.S. Tech Momentum Stocks Post Largest Single-Day Gain Ever, But Is the Plunge Over?

marsbitHá 36m

U.S. Tech Momentum Stocks Record Largest Single-Day Gain Ever, but Has the Rout Ended?

U.S. tech momentum stocks staged a dramatic rebound on Tuesday, July 21st. Key momentum indices like the Morgan Stanley TMT Momentum Factor and Goldman Sachs' High Beta Momentum Long Index posted historic or near-historic single-day gains, fueled largely by semiconductor stocks. This sharp rally followed a severe three-day sell-off that saw momentum stocks plunge 33%, marking one of the steepest pullbacks since the dot-com bubble. Analysts attribute the bounce primarily to a short squeeze, as forced covering from over-leveraged traders, particularly in Asia, created a buying spiral. However, the rally's health is questioned due to weak market breadth—overall trading volume was low, and decliners outnumbered advancers in the S&P 500 despite the index's gain—suggesting a narrow, concentrated surge rather than broad recovery. Opinions on the sustainability diverge. BTIG strategists warn the rebound has hit key resistance levels, citing extreme volatility and historic stock dispersion as signs of an ongoing broader correction, and recommend selling into strength. Conversely, Goldman Sachs and UBS view the aggressive momentum unwinding as nearing its end, noting reduced positioning and a lack of new fundamental catalysts. They suggest the sell-off presents a selective opportunity to add exposure, albeit cautiously and gradually using defined-risk strategies. The immediate trajectory hinges on the ongoing earnings season, with market focus on Alphabet's capital expenditure guidance for AI investment clarity. Meanwhile, bond markets present a risk, with rising Treasury yields—potentially heading toward 5.5%—and widening credit spreads for mega-cap tech companies posing a threat to equity valuations. The combination of technical factors, earnings results, and macro conditions leaves the durability of the rebound in doubt.

链捕手Há 38m

U.S. Tech Momentum Stocks Record Largest Single-Day Gain Ever, but Has the Rout Ended?

链捕手Há 38m

Bitcoin flashes 3 macro-bottom signals – But can BTC reach $70K?

The article discusses Bitcoin's recent price movement above $66,000 and a shift in market analysis from focusing on a local bottom to a potential macro-cycle bottom. It cites a crypto analyst noting that BTC has flashed three historical technical signals that previously coincided with major market bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022, suggesting the current zone could be a strong long-term accumulation area. However, the article also highlights a significant challenge: despite the price breakout, on-chain data shows a lack of supporting liquidity. Stablecoin dominance is rising while the total stablecoin market cap is shrinking, with capital continuing to leave exchanges. This divergence indicates that while the technical setup is bullish, the rally may struggle to sustain enough momentum for a decisive move into the $70,000 region without an influx of fresh capital.

ambcryptoHá 41m

Bitcoin flashes 3 macro-bottom signals – But can BTC reach $70K?

ambcryptoHá 41m

Long-Divided Must Unite, Long-United Must Divide: When L1 Becomes Its Own Rollup, What Is Ethereum's Endgame?

"The Inevitable Cycle: When L1 Becomes Its Own Rollup – What is Ethereum's Endgame?" For years, the Ethereum community grappled with concerns that L2s were fragmenting the ecosystem and eroding L1's value. While L2s provided cheaper execution, they also splintered liquidity and the unified user experience of a single chain. This has prompted a fundamental reassessment of the relationship between L1 and L2. Ethereum's roadmap is evolving. The "Scale" initiative merges L1 and L2 expansion into a holistic framework. L1 itself is advancing with higher gas limits, statelessness, and zkEVM verification, no longer content to be just a low-throughput settlement layer. Consequently, the primary value proposition of L2s is shifting from merely providing cheap blockspace to offering L1 cannot easily provide: application-specific optimizations, privacy features, and flexible governance models. L2s are becoming a spectrum of execution environments with varying degrees of security inheritance from Ethereum. A critical challenge in this multi-chain future is interoperability. The vision is to make Ethereum "feel like one chain again." This relies on advancements in native account abstraction (like EIP-7702) and intent-based architectures (Open Intents Framework), where users declare desired outcomes, and solvers handle the complex cross-chain execution. Furthermore, shortening Ethereum's finality time from minutes to seconds is crucial, as it underpins trust between chains for bridges, stablecoins, and cross-chain applications. Perhaps the most provocative idea is that Ethereum L1 itself could become a form of "its own Rollup." As zkEVM and proof systems mature, high-performance nodes could execute transactions and generate validity proofs. Regular validators would then verify these proofs instead of re-executing all transactions. This blurs the traditional L1/L2 hierarchy, making "Rollup" more of a general execution-verification architecture. Native Rollup aims to integrate L2 validation more directly into the Ethereum protocol, allowing L2s to inherit L1's security more fully and move away from reliance on security councils. In the end, L2s are not destined to replace L1 or be made obsolete by it. The likely future is a unified system where diverse execution environments—each optimized for specific use cases like DeFi, gaming, or privacy—coexist. They will share a common foundation of security, liquidity, and verifiable state, seamlessly connected to restore a cohesive user experience. The next phase for Ethereum is not just about scaling through separation, but about intelligently reintegrating what was separated back into a coherent whole.

链捕手Há 55m

Long-Divided Must Unite, Long-United Must Divide: When L1 Becomes Its Own Rollup, What Is Ethereum's Endgame?

链捕手Há 55m

Trading

Spot
活动图片

Categorias popularesright-arrow

Etiquetas Popularesright-arrow