US Recession Chances are Rising, Will Crypto Prices be Hit?

TheNewsCryptoPublicado em 2026-03-09Última atualização em 2026-03-09

Resumo

Chances of a US recession by the end of 2026 have increased on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, rising from around 22% in early March to approximately 35-39%. This has raised concerns about a potential global recession, which could negatively impact crypto prices as investors may reallocate funds. Current crypto prices remain stable, with BTC at $64,240.50 and ETH at $1,977.45, though fear in the market has increased. Rising oil prices, with crude at $103.22 per barrel, are a major concern and could further escalate if the Middle East conflict continues. Upcoming inflation data on March 11, 2026, is highly anticipated.

The chances for a US recession are rising on Kalshi and Polymarket, with the recent jump coming in early March 2026. Their respective readings are indications for a duration by the end of 2026. Crypto prices are under scrutiny because it could lead to a global recession – forcing investors to divert their allocations. Meanwhile, oil prices have risen considerably.

Chances for US Recession

Kalshi was last seen placing a 34.9% chance for US recession by the end of 2026. Polymarket has pinned its chances to 39%. What’s common between both is the starting point. Kalshi and Polymarket saw a reasonable jump from early March 2026. Chances were as low as 22% according to Polymarket, while Kalshi was at around 21.7%.

Polymarket was highest at the end of October 2025 with 46%; however, it started declining over the next few months. March 2026 saw a step upward movement from 24% to the current point. It only moved down once, but that was from 33% to 31%.

It is important to note that chances for a US recession fluctuate on Kalshi and Polymarket frequently. The values mentioned in the article are true at the time of drafting the piece.

Crypto Prices in Danger?

Crypto prices are affected by multiple factors, but US recession triggering a global recession could end up becoming a prominent component. The February 2026 unemployment data showed a rate of 4.4%, slightly up from 4.3% for January 2026. Moreover, it is speculated that the ongoing Iran conflict could escalate issues if the conflict is prolonged.

For now, crypto prices are hovering within a set range. BTC is trading at $64,240.50, and ETH is trading at $1,977.45. The FGI has shifted to 19 points, a bit down from 20 points but massively down from 41 points from early January 2026.

The inflation data is next on the list, expected to be published on March 11, 2026.

Factors Involved

Oil prices are currently the biggest factor in consideration. Crude Oil is $103.217 per barrel, and Brent is at $108.277 per barrel. This is after a daily surge of 13.50% and 16.89%, according to Trading Economics. Oil prices are estimated to go as high as $150 if the Middle East conflict is not resolved any time soon.

Founder of Schiff Sovereign, Peter Schiff, has said that rising oil prices will not cause inflation, but a recession. He has added that fiscal and monetary policy will follow the rising oil prices, which could result in higher inflation.

Highlighted Crypto News Today:

U.S. Treasury Urges Congress to Allow Crypto Platforms to Freeze Suspicious Funds

Perguntas relacionadas

QAccording to the article, what are the current chances for a US recession by the end of 2026 on Kalshi and Polymarket?

AKalshi places a 34.9% chance, and Polymarket pins the chances at 39% for a US recession by the end of 2026.

QWhat is the current trading price of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as mentioned in the article?

ABTC is trading at $64,240.50, and ETH is trading at $1,977.45.

QWhat major factor is cited as a potential trigger for a global recession that could impact crypto prices?

AA US recession is cited as a potential factor that could trigger a global recession, which would impact crypto prices.

QWhat are the current prices of Crude Oil and Brent per barrel, and what is the estimated potential high if the Middle East conflict continues?

ACrude Oil is at $103.217 per barrel, and Brent is at $108.277 per barrel. It is estimated that oil prices could go as high as $150 if the Middle East conflict is not resolved soon.

QWhat does Peter Schiff, founder of Schiff Sovereign, predict will be the result of rising oil prices?

APeter Schiff predicts that rising oil prices will cause a recession, not inflation, but he adds that subsequent fiscal and monetary policy could result in higher inflation.

Leituras Relacionadas

A 'Overlooked' Market Event: Joint US-Japan-South Korea Intervention, Rare US Treasury Involvement, and Bessent's Quiet 'Market Rescue'?

Summary: The United States, Japan, and South Korea executed their largest coordinated foreign exchange intervention in nearly 30 years. The action targeted depreciation pressure on the Japanese yen and South Korean won. This move is seen as a significant effort by the US to stabilize the financial markets of its key allies and prevent the spillover of risks. Key details: * Japan reportedly intervened on July 30 using approximately 8.45 trillion yen (about $52.8 billion). South Korean authorities also intervened that day, selling dollars to support the won. * Notably, the US Treasury Department intervened directly in yen markets for the first time in roughly 30 years. The New York Fed, reportedly acting on behalf of the Treasury, sold euros to buy yen via Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on July 31. Analysts view the use of the euro-yen pair as a way to alleviate yen pressure without adding selling pressure to the US dollar. * Prior to the action, the New York Fed conducted "rate checks" on both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, a newer signaling tool that falls between verbal and physical intervention. The intervention is interpreted as going beyond traditional currency stabilization. Analysts, such as Michael Hartnett of Bank of America, suggest it resembles a "Price Keeping Operation" for the AI era. The core US objectives are perceived to be: 1. Preventing rapid yen depreciation from triggering a sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields. 2. Containing financial stress from spreading across Asian markets like South Korea and Japan. 3. Reducing the risk of disorderly capital flows impacting the US bond market. This coordinated action underscores the importance of Japan and South Korea as critical partners in the US semiconductor and AI supply chain. Stabilizing their financial markets is seen as vital to mitigating risks to the broader tech industry and the US market itself. The intervention coincides with market pressures, including the KOSDAQ index hitting a low since October 2022. While seen as a move to control volatility, some analysts caution it may not fundamentally reverse existing market trends.

marsbitHá 1m

A 'Overlooked' Market Event: Joint US-Japan-South Korea Intervention, Rare US Treasury Involvement, and Bessent's Quiet 'Market Rescue'?

marsbitHá 1m

Will the Federal Reserve Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Cryptocurrencies and US Stocks Bear the Pressure?

In early August 2024, market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike surged dramatically, from below 50% to over 80%, driven by renewed inflation concerns. This shift followed a contentious July FOMC meeting where a 9-3 vote to hold rates revealed a growing hawkish faction advocating for an immediate hike, citing prolonged above-target inflation. The key catalyst is escalating conflict near the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed oil prices up approximately 20% in July, threatening to reignite inflation. The next critical data point is the July CPI report on August 12th; a hot reading could solidify hike expectations. For crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, this represents near-term pressure. Bitcoin continues to exhibit high-beta, risk-on characteristics, making it sensitive to tightening liquidity and higher opportunity costs. However, historical precedent suggests that if a hike is perceived as the cycle's end rather than its start, the negative impact may be brief, with markets quickly pivoting to anticipate future rate cuts. U.S. stocks, especially crypto-linked equities like Coinbase and high-valuation tech stocks, face amplified volatility. Higher rates increase discount rates in valuation models, pressuring growth stocks. This coincides with a pivotal tech earnings season where investor focus has shifted from massive AI capital expenditures to demonstrable revenue and cash flow generation. Companies with negative cash flows and weak growth narratives could see severe pressure if a September hike materializes, as financing costs would rise. Key indicators to watch include oil prices, upcoming inflation data, and Fed commentary at events like the Jackson Hole symposium.

Odaily星球日报Há 1m

Will the Federal Reserve Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Cryptocurrencies and US Stocks Bear the Pressure?

Odaily星球日报Há 1m

How Likely is it for TradeXYZ to Go Solo from Hyperliquid?

The article analyzes the possibility of TradeXYZ, a dominant project on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 real-world asset (RWA) perpetual contracts market, splitting off to build its own independent trading platform. With TradeXYZ commanding over 90% of HIP-3 volume and over 35% of Hyperliquid's total open interest, its leverage and influence are significant. The primary motive for a split is seen as capturing the underlying protocol fees, of which TradeXYZ currently receives only half. However, several factors strongly discourage such a move. First, replicating Hyperliquid's high-performance infrastructure would be challenging and could degrade TradeXYZ's product quality. Second, Hyperliquid serves as a crucial distribution channel, with most users accessing TradeXYZ's liquidity through its frontend. Third, the close, trusting relationship between the founders of both projects makes a hostile "betrayal" unlikely. The conclusion is that a split would likely result in a lose-lose scenario. Hyperliquid would lose its main growth narrative and see its valuation impacted, while TradeXYZ would face immense technical hurdles, lose its primary user channel, and damage its reputation. Instead of a full separation, the more probable path is for TradeXYZ to negotiate better terms while deepening integration, focusing on enhancing its own brand and user ownership.

marsbitHá 52m

How Likely is it for TradeXYZ to Go Solo from Hyperliquid?

marsbitHá 52m

"Teletubbies" Robot Cleaning Service, $30/Hour, Pure·Manual·Intelligence

Anthropomorphic "Teletubby" robot offers cleaning services in San Francisco at $30/hour, but it's entirely remote-controlled. The robot, created by startup Tau Robotics, can perform household tasks like washing hands, mopping floors, and taking out trash. While the initial demo videos appear impressive and are notably shown at normal speed (unlike many sped-up robot demos), the company reveals the actions are performed via human teleoperation, not autonomous AI. Tau Robotics, founded in 2024, argues this "cheat" is a strategic way to bridge the current capability gap, ensure task completion, and collect real-world home data to eventually train autonomous systems. Their service features three robot models: Chelsea for kitchens/bathrooms, Elon for regular tidying with memory, and Tony for deep cleaning. Priced at $30 per hour, it's cheaper than average human cleaners in the US. The article discusses the broader challenge of deploying humanoid robots in homes, comparing Tau's approach to others like China's Ziliang and the US's 1X Neo, which also use teleoperation. A key reason for choosing a humanoid form is to make remote control more intuitive for human operators. The piece also notes the potential "emotional value" of having a humanoid servant. The service is currently invite-only in San Francisco.

marsbitHá 1h

"Teletubbies" Robot Cleaning Service, $30/Hour, Pure·Manual·Intelligence

marsbitHá 1h

From South Korea to the United States: Blue-Collar Jobs Are Becoming Increasingly Popular, Thanks to AI

AI is reshaping the labor market's value proposition. The traditional four-year college degree is losing its appeal as a guaranteed career path, while skilled blue-collar trades like electricians, welders, and plumbers are experiencing historic demand and wage premiums. This shift is driven by dual pressures: AI's displacement of certain white-collar roles and a booming need for physical infrastructure and data center construction. Data confirms the trend. In the U.S., vocational school revenue surged, and a significant portion of recent layoffs are AI-related. Surveys show a majority of Gen Z adults plan to pursue blue-collar work, citing better job security against AI automation. Vocational education interest has exploded recently. Experts cite a psychological shift as younger generations seek tangible, AI-resistant careers and avoid high student debt. In many cases, salaries for skilled trades now match or exceed those requiring a bachelor's degree. In South Korea, semiconductor vocational high schools boast near-total employment, with graduates securing high-paying roles at companies like Samsung. The shortage is structural, exacerbated by a retiring baby boomer workforce and massive infrastructure projects. Companies like JPMorgan Chase, Meta, and Lowe's are investing heavily in training programs. However, overcoming historical stigma and a "perception gap" around trade careers remains a key challenge to closing the talent gap.

marsbitHá 1h