Written by: Zhao Ying
Source: Wall Street Journal
The historic high-level talks between the US and Iran concluded without an agreement, while the military standoff in the Strait of Hormuz during the negotiations has pushed the issue of control over this strategic waterway to the core of diplomatic maneuvering.
According to CCTV News, after approximately 21 hours of talks in Pakistan, US Vice President Vance stated that the two sides failed to reach an agreement.
During the negotiations, Iran and the US engaged in a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. On the 11th, Trump posted on social media that the US had "begun clearing the Strait of Hormuz" and claimed that all 28 of Iran's minelaying boats "were sunk to the bottom of the sea." Iran responded forcefully immediately. According to a Xinhua report citing Iran's Tasnim News Agency, after Iran issued a severe warning, the US destroyer had returned from the Strait of Hormuz.
The simultaneous development of these two events has made the market increasingly cautious about the prospects of the talks. Former US Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro stated bluntly that the possibility of reaching a substantive agreement on core issues was "zero," and a more realistic outcome would be some kind of understanding regarding passage rights through the Strait of Hormuz to continue the negotiation process.
Strait Standoff: Conflicting Accounts from Both Sides
There are fundamental discrepancies in the accounts of the Strait incident on the 11th. According to a Xinhua report, US media cited US officials saying that two US destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz from east to west into the Persian Gulf, and later returned via the same strait to the Arabian Sea. US Central Command stated that the two destroyers left as planned after completing their mission in the Persian Gulf, with no incidents occurring throughout the process. This move was intended to demonstrate that the US does not accept Iranian control over the Strait and to initiate the process of reopening commercial channels, while also commencing a broader mission using underwater drones to clear mines in the Strait.
Radio dialogue recorded by a nearby civilian vessel showed that both sides deliberately exercised restraint at the time. The Iranian side issued a warning to the US destroyer: "This is the final warning, this is the final warning." The US side responded by stating they were transiting in accordance with international law, had no intention of provocation, and would comply with their government's ceasefire provisions.
However, the Iranian account is截然不同 (completely different). According to the Xinhua report, after closely monitoring the position of the US destroyer, the Iranian armed forces issued a severe warning and conveyed the situation to the US negotiation delegation via Pakistan, explicitly informing them that "if the US warship continues its voyage, it will be sunk within 30 minutes, and the Iran-US negotiations will also be affected."
The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy further emphasized in a statement on April 12th that it fully controls the management rights of the Strait of Hormuz, currently only allowing non-military vessels to pass according to specific regulations, and denied reports of US warships passing through the Strait.
This Round of Talks: Highest Level, Deepest Divisions
The talks in Pakistan are considered the highest-level formal diplomatic contact between the US and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The US delegation was led by Vice President Vance, with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner participating; the Iranian delegation was headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and senior diplomatic and security official Ali Bagheri Kani in attendance.
The talks lasted for hours and involved technical experts discussing specific issues. However, according to CCTV News, after about 21 hours of negotiation, Vance stated that the two sides still failed to reach an agreement, with multiple rounds of "substantive discussions" ultimately yielding no results. The nuclear program, missile systems, and support for regional armed groups—issues that have plagued both sides for over twenty years—saw no breakthroughs in these talks.
The significant participation of hardliners in the Iranian negotiation team also led to cautious external views on the prospects of the talks. Bagheri Kani and senior MP Mahmoud Nabavian had both opposed previous diplomatic efforts to limit Iran's nuclear program; security official Ali Akbar Ahmadian was sanctioned by Canada in 2023 for his role in Iran's drone program. Analysts pointed out that while the participation of hardliners increases the difficulty of negotiation, their endorsement would also make any eventual agreement more durable.
Strait Control: The Most Pressing Sticking Point in Talks
Control of the Strait of Hormuz is the most time-sensitive issue in this round of talks and the most market-sensitive unresolved issue following the fruitless conclusion.
Since the ceasefire, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has reduced traffic through the Strait to very low levels and implemented a toll system. According to CCTV News, data from the ship tracking website "Marine Traffic" shows that ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely limited, with all transiting vessels passing under direct Iranian supervision.
According to media reports, Trump has shown increasing impatience with Iran's delay in reopening the Strait, which was one of the preconditions for the two-week ceasefire agreement. Suzanne Maloney, director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, stated that Iran's public stance seeking the unfreezing of billions of dollars indicates this will be one of the conditions it sets for temporarily easing the blockade of the Strait. She also warned, "The Strait issue is the most urgent, but the US cannot let it overshadow the nuclear issue, which is the core of the conflict."
Behind the Standoff: Testing and Restraint Coexist
Judging from the actual course of this standoff, both sides demonstrated a degree of restraint beneath their strong rhetoric—the US military completed its transit and left, while Iran handled the situation through negotiation channels rather than taking direct military action. This situation continues the overall trend since last Thursday of the US halting strikes and a significant reduction in Iranian drone and missile attacks in the Gulf region.
Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House in London, believes that Ghalibaf's ability to maintain high-level talks normally even as US warships challenged Iran in the Strait indicates he has the authority to impose constraints on the Iranian political system under such circumstances. Vakil said: "This is the US testing the other side, to see if they will respond with restraint."
With the talks having ended without results, whether the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz can be managed in subsequent contacts will directly determine the stability of passage through this globally crucial energy channel and whether there is room for the broader US-Iran diplomatic process to continue.
