US Government Lifts Ban on Crypto Perpetual Contracts for the First Time: What Does It Mean for the Market?

Odaily星球日报Publicado em 2026-05-30Última atualização em 2026-05-30

Resumo

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued guidance permitting 24/7 trading and clearing for crypto asset derivatives, effectively opening the U.S. market to crypto perpetual contracts for the first time. This move ends the previous ban and allows American individuals and institutions to trade these instruments around the clock. Direct beneficiaries include Kalshi, which received approval to list a Bitcoin perpetual contract; Coinbase, now the first CFTC-regulated futures commission merchant for U.S. clients to access global crypto derivatives; and CME, which will transition its Bitcoin futures and options to 24/7 trading. The CFTC emphasized this is a specific allowance for crypto assets, noting that traditional commodities like agriculture may not be suitable for non-stop trading. It also requires platforms to undergo case-by-case reviews for compliance and risk management. Industry leaders like Michael Saylor and Brian Armstrong praised the decision for integrating Bitcoin into capital markets and granting U.S. users access to a major global market segment. However, consumer advocacy group Better Markets criticized the CFTC for allegedly neglecting investor protection and favoring the industry it regulates. Other platforms like Kraken have announced plans to launch regulated perpetual futures for the U.S. market. The policy shift is expected to redirect significant liquidity and institutional participation to the newly accessible U.S. crypto deriva...

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

On May 29, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued 24/7 trading regulatory guidance, emphasizing that, due to their digital infrastructure and global continuous trading features, crypto asset-related derivatives are more suitable for around-the-clock trading and clearing.

This means that the United States, previously seen as a "no-go zone" for crypto perpetual contracts, has opened up for the first time. Another fire has been added to the U.S. becoming the "crypto capital."

Numerous crypto trading platforms and traditional exchanges have acted on the news, launching corresponding trading entrances.

The Biggest Gift from the US CFTC to the Crypto Market: Opening the 24/7 Perpetual Market

According to incomplete statistics, in 2025, the trading volume of crypto derivatives perpetual contracts ranged between 60 trillion and 85 trillion USD, with a single-day peak reaching 750 billion USD; accounting for about 75% to 80% of total crypto trading volume.(Odaily Planet Daily Note:Kalshi stated that this market's total trading volume exceeded 90 trillion USD in 2025)

However, for U.S. crypto platforms, regulators had not provided clear rules for this huge cake.

Now, the U.S. CFTC has officially opened this market, which originally had virtually a 0% share, to U.S. citizens and certain domestic crypto platforms and CEM exchanges. Meanwhile, U.S. institutions and individual users can now trade crypto perpetual contracts seamlessly 24/7, eliminating the previous "time difference."

U.S. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig called this a historic step "bringing the world's most active crypto derivatives into the U.S. regulatory framework." Regulatory actions also quickly triggered execution from leading crypto platforms.

Direct Beneficiaries of the New Policy: Kalshi, Coinbase, CME

On the same day, the U.S. CFTC issued a listing approval order to the designated contract market KalshiEX, LLC, agreeing to list the Bitcoin spot price-referenced perpetual contract BTCPERP as a futures product for trading. This contract was submitted for approval under CFTC Regulation 40.3 on May 29, 2026. Additionally, Kalshi plans to launch over a dozen crypto perpetual contracts subsequently.

Furthermore, Coinbase announced becoming the first and currently only U.S.-based Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) regulated by the CFTC, providing U.S. clients access to the global crypto derivatives market, including crypto perpetual contracts and options(connecting to platforms like Deribit, whose Bitcoin options open interest exceeds 31 billion USD); simultaneously, Coinbase also received approval to allow the use of client crypto assets/stablecoins as margin (subject to rehypothecation conditions).

Finally, the traditional exchange CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) is also a direct beneficiary of this policy change. Bitcoin futures and options on its Globex platform will transition to 24/7 trading starting this Friday, ending the previous fixed weekend closure, allowing institutional clients to hedge spot volatility seamlessly.

However, this does not mean trading volume will suddenly surge—despite the end of the "CME gap" formed by weekend closures, market liquidity remains concentrated in ETF options and offshore perpetual contracts; the open interest scale of IBIT options is significantly higher than the CME crypto options market. Currently, large traders' short positions continue to decline, reducing short-term selling pressure, but long-term positioning has not yet formed a clear trend.

Cautious Attitude Behind the CFTC Statement: Commodity Differentiation and Reinforcing Authority

Yesterday, apart from issuing a "No-Action Letter" to Coinbase, the relevant U.S. CFTC department specifically emphasized two things:

  1. Traditional commodity derivatives like agricultural products, due to regional and trading structure characteristics, may not be suitable for full 24/7 operation;
  2. Regulated trading platforms, swap execution facilities, derivatives clearing organizations, and futures commission merchants must comply with the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and related regulatory rules when expanding 24/7 trading, and proactively assess risk management and operational arrangements.

In other words, 24/7 perpetual trading for commodities like agricultural products is currently not allowed; and any institution wishing to offer 24/7 derivative trading must communicate with CFTC staff in advance, submit detailed plans and risk analyses, with the CFTC reviewing compliance on a case-by-case basis.

Thus, it is evident that the U.S. CFTC's move is more like a "special treatment" for crypto assets, opening a door for more crypto platforms to launch derivative products, further strengthening its regulatory authority over crypto asset derivatives.

Industry Insider Evaluation: Overwhelming Praise and Support

The U.S. CFTC's regulatory guidance represents the true localization of 24/7 trading for crypto derivatives in the U.S. market. Liquidity from many domestic users previously excluded from the U.S. market is expected to return rapidly, further increasing participation from domestic institutions, capital efficiency, and to some extent reducing risk management costs (rollover costs, weekend time gaps).

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor posted, stating that the CFTC guidance promotes the development of Bitcoin capital markets, including 24/7 trading, BTC collateral, perpetual futures, options, and regulated access. This will benefit BTC holders, provide support for MSTR's development, and support STRC as a Bitcoin-backed digital credit development.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong cheered: "U.S. users have been excluded from this 80% of the global crypto market (including perpetual futures and options). But now it's different!"

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated, "This marks Kalshi's evolution from a prediction market leader to a next-generation derivatives exchange. U.S.-based, secure, and regulated perpetual contracts will improve capital allocation and risk management for countless U.S. businesses."

Such statements from beneficiaries are understandable, while some external observers interpret it as "opening Pandora's box of speculative behavior."

U.S. Public Interest Third-Party Organization: CFTC Disregards Public Interest and Investor Protection

Better Markets, a third-party consumer protection organization established after the 2008 financial crisis, officially stated, "Retail investors are unlikely to fully understand the risks posed by perpetual futures. We urged the CFTC last year to require enhanced disclosures that are easier for retail investors to understand. Unfortunately, the CFTC not only did not require such enhanced disclosures but seemed to completely ignore the risks faced by the products it approved."

"The CFTC's action lacks the demeanor befitting a regulatory agency. However, considering Coinbase and Kalshi serve as advisory bodies on two of the CFTC's advisory committees, this is not surprising. Clearly, the CFTC's work is not for the public interest or investor protection, but for the industries it is supposed to regulate."

The statement directly implies that the U.S. CFTC may have undisclosed dealings or a certain level of internal cooperation with Coinbase and Kalshi.

The U.S. Market to Enter a Period of Derivatives Trading Explosion

Apart from the direct beneficiaries mentioned above, U.S. crypto exchange Kraken also stated plans to launch the first CFTC-regulated perpetual futures product for the U.S. market within the next 30 days. Currently, perpetual futures on Kraken Pro are provided by NinjaTrader Clearing, LLC (operating under the name Kraken Derivatives US), a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant; related spot margin and perpetual futures products will be provided on Bitnomial Exchange(Odaily Planet Daily Note: The latter is a CFTC-regulated exchange recently acquired by Kraken's parent company Payward).

Setting aside polarized commentary, the door to the tens-of-trillions-dollar perpetual derivatives market is slowly opening for U.S. users.

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the core policy change announced by the U.S. CFTC regarding crypto derivatives?

AThe U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued guidance permitting 24/7 trading and clearing of crypto-asset derivatives, specifically lifting the prior restriction on crypto perpetual futures contracts for U.S. citizens and certain domestic platforms and exchange markets (CMEs).

QWhich companies are mentioned as direct beneficiaries of the new CFTC guidance?

AThe article names Kalshi, Coinbase, and CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) as direct beneficiaries. Kalshi received approval to list a Bitcoin perpetual futures contract, Coinbase became a CFTC-regulated Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) for U.S. clients, and CME transitioned its Bitcoin futures and options to 24/7 trading.

QAccording to the article, what was the approximate size of the crypto perpetual futures market in 2025?

AIn 2025, the trading volume for crypto derivative perpetual contracts was estimated to be between 60 trillion and 85 trillion U.S. dollars, with a single-day high of 750 billion dollars. This volume accounted for approximately 75% to 80% of total crypto trading activity.

QWhat criticism did the consumer advocacy group Better Markets level against the CFTC's decision?

ABetter Markets criticized the CFTC, arguing that the regulator ignored the risks of perpetual futures products and failed to require enhanced, easy-to-understand disclosures for retail investors. They suggested the decision prioritized the interests of the industry (like Coinbase and Kalshi, which have advisory roles) over public interest and investor protection.

QHow does the article characterize the CFTC's approach to 24/7 trading for different asset classes?

AThe article states that the CFTC's approach is not a blanket approval for all commodities. It highlights that derivatives for traditional commodities like agricultural products may not be suitable for 24/7 trading due to their specific characteristics. The move is portrayed as a targeted, case-by-case 'special handling' specifically for crypto assets, strengthening the CFTC's regulatory authority over this sector.

Leituras Relacionadas

AI Trading Cools, South Korean Stocks Plunge 1.8%, Spot Gold Rises 1%, Bitcoin Dives

A sell-off in AI-related stocks, triggered by Broadcom's disappointing earnings forecast, sent shockwaves through global markets. South Korea's KOSPI led Asia's decline, plunging 1.8% as the risks from concentrated chip stock gains and surging leveraged investments came to the fore. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5% following Broadcom's 14% after-hours plunge, which signaled a slower-than-expected transition to AI clients. This pullback extended Wall Street's weakness, halting the S&P 500's nine-day rally amid hawkish Fed signals and renewed Middle East tensions. South Korean authorities convened an emergency meeting, pledging "immediate measures" against market volatility and warning of record-high stock margin debt. The adjustment rippled across assets: Bitcoin fell to around $64,000, its lowest since February, while safe-haven gold rose 1% on bargain hunting. Oil prices dipped on Middle East ceasefire news. Market analysts noted the sell-off was driven by profit-taking after massive gains, particularly in chip stocks like Samsung and SK Hynix, which now dominate the KOSPI. Wall Street banks are divided on Korea's outlook, with Goldman Sachs raising its target while Citigroup and others warn of overvaluation and a potential bubble. Bridgewater's Ray Dalio noted that great technological shifts often create bubbles. Meanwhile, Fed officials' hints at potential future rate hikes added to the cautious mood ahead of key U.S. jobs data.

华尔街日报Há 8m

AI Trading Cools, South Korean Stocks Plunge 1.8%, Spot Gold Rises 1%, Bitcoin Dives

华尔街日报Há 8m

Seeking Alpha's Hot Article: Why Might the U.S. Stock Market Crash in June?

In a recent Seeking Alpha article, financial professor and analyst Damir Tokic argues that the US stock market may be poised for a significant crash in June 2026. The core thesis centers on a "mega-bubble" in equities, particularly within the technology sector, which has driven the S&P 500 to near-record valuations, with a Shiller P/E ratio exceeding 40—a level comparable to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Tokic identifies two primary catalysts for a potential collapse. First, he points to unsustainable market exuberance fueled by what he terms the "Trump Stimulus"—massive AI capital expenditure by tech giants, which he believes is politically driven and cannot last. Second, and more urgently, he highlights the escalating Iran war as a critical threat. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a severe global energy supply crunch. Strategic petroleum reserves are projected to hit critically low operational levels by June, potentially causing oil prices to spike above $200 per barrel and triggering a severe, supply-driven inflationary shock. This scenario, Tokic warns, would force the Federal Reserve's hand. Despite currently maintaining a dovish bias, the Fed would likely be compelled to officially pivot to a hawkish stance at its June FOMC meeting to combat soaring inflation and bond yields. He contends that such a shift—or even a failure to act, which would destroy Fed credibility—could be the trigger that punctures the market bubble. The resulting downturn, he concludes, could rival the bear markets of 2000 and 2008, advising investors to prepare for a major correction.

marsbitHá 31m

Seeking Alpha's Hot Article: Why Might the U.S. Stock Market Crash in June?

marsbitHá 31m

AI PC Battle: Bet on the Toll Booth, Not the Camp

**Title:** The AI PC Battle: Don't Bet on Sides, Bet on the Tollbooth **Summary:** The AI PC competition is moving beyond simple "x86 vs. Arm" narratives. The core investment thesis should focus on identifying which players can sustain margins, cash flow, and pricing power throughout the upgrade cycle, rather than backing a particular architecture. The opportunity is analyzed in three layers: 1. **The Advanced Foundry Tollbooth:** TSMC is positioned to collect "tolls" regardless of which chip designer wins, due to its dominant ~70% share in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, which is essential for high-end AI PC chips. 2. **Compute & Platform Spillover:** AMD represents an offensive in the x86 CPU+GPU space, while NVIDIA leverages its GPU and CUDA software stack dominance. Both benefit from the demand for increased local AI compute. 3. **Architecture Diffusion & Turnaround Plays:** ARM and Intel offer potential for significant upside (elasticity), but investments here require stricter discipline due to higher execution risks and competitive challenges. The industry is transitioning from concept to shipment validation. While short-term forecasts for AI PC adoption have been revised down slightly due to tariffs and procurement delays, the long-term trend towards AI becoming a standard PC feature remains intact. The key driver for upgrade cycles will be whether compelling enterprise applications (e.g., privacy-sensitive computing, low-latency inference) emerge beyond consumer-focused features like meeting summarization. Investment strategy should prioritize companies with platform-level advantages and recurring revenue streams. TSMC offers high certainty as the foundational tollbooth. AMD presents a strong offensive play within the established ecosystem. ARM and Intel are higher-risk, higher-potential-reward turnaround bets. The report cautions against chasing short-term hype and emphasizes a disciplined, long-term approach focused on buying ecosystem strength and cash-flow certainty after market enthusiasm subsides. **Key Risks:** Underwhelming AI PC applications slowing upgrade cycles; slow improvement in Windows on Arm compatibility; macro/tariff impacts on PC demand; potential advanced node supply-demand mismatches affecting TSMC; high overall AI sector valuations making stocks vulnerable to a risk-off shift in markets.

marsbitHá 45m

AI PC Battle: Bet on the Toll Booth, Not the Camp

marsbitHá 45m

Ten-Thousand-Word Analysis: From $10 to $290, MRVL Wins the Entire AI Era by 'Not Making GPUs'

Marvell Technology's stock price surged from under $10 in 2016 to a record $290 in June 2026, fueled not by making GPUs, but by dominating AI infrastructure connectivity. This analysis argues the market misvalues MRVL as merely a smaller Broadcom in custom AI chips, overlooking its true, unique position. Marvell's core strength lies in enabling high-speed data flow for AI clusters through three interconnected businesses. First, it holds a commanding ~70% market share in high-speed optical DSPs (essential for data center light modules), a deep-moat business with accelerating growth. Second, its custom AI chip design business serves hyperscalers like AWS, Microsoft, and Google, with a significant revenue pipeline despite lower margins. Third, stable cash flows come from Ethernet switch chips and enterprise storage controllers. Together, they form a full-stack "AI data movement" platform. CEO Matt Murphy's transformative leadership since 2016, involving strategic divestments, key acquisitions (like Inphi for optical DSPs), and securing long-term agreements with major cloud providers, repositioned the company. A pivotal $2 billion strategic investment from NVIDIA in 2026 underscored Marvell's critical role in the AI ecosystem, particularly through collaborations like NVLink Fusion. While Marvell faces risks—including client concentration (losing the Amazon Trainium3 design), lower-margin business mix, competitive threats, insider selling, and complex supply chains—its fundamentals remain strong. The optical interconnect moat is widening with the acquisition of Celestial AI (photonics fabric), and financial metrics show accelerating revenue growth and operating leverage. With a PEG ratio suggesting undervaluation relative to its growth, the thesis is that the market undervalues Marvell's monopolistic position in AI "plumbing" while overemphasizing its competitive custom chip segment. The story transcends investing, symbolizing how in any complex system—from the internet to AI—the value of "connection" ultimately surpasses that of individual "nodes."

marsbitHá 1h

Ten-Thousand-Word Analysis: From $10 to $290, MRVL Wins the Entire AI Era by 'Not Making GPUs'

marsbitHá 1h

Trading

Spot
Futuros
活动图片