Daily key market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macro Market
The US-Israel strikes against Iran have entered the 19th day. Trump declared that he has "completely destroyed Iran's military power" without needing assistance from NATO allies, while Iran announced the 61st wave of its "True Promise-4" operation in retaliation for the killing of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Larijani. Analysis suggests that Larijani's death will have a far greater impact on the operation of the Iranian regime than Khamenei's.
US stocks continued their rebound on Tuesday, with the three major indices posting slight gains. However, the selling wave triggered by the US-Iran war is far from bottoming out. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned that the Middle East conflict and private credit concerns have shattered the "bubble-like bull market," but the current sentiment indicator of 5.6 and the long/short sell signal of 8.5 indicate that the market has not yet reached historically extreme pessimism.
Ahead of the FOMC meeting early Thursday morning, CME data shows the market expects a near 99% probability of maintaining the rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with a 97% probability of holding steady next month. KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk warned that the Fed's "dual mandate" has turned into "fighting each other," with the risk of entrenched inflation increasing daily; JPMorgan's David Kelly believes Powell will emphasize the high uncertainty brought by the Middle East conflict, but core economic forecasts won't change much. Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson bluntly stated that the Fed has deviated from the 2% inflation target for too long, and runaway prices are the biggest threat.
Additionally, US national debt has soared to a record $38.86 trillion, with interest payments consuming 17% of government revenue. Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, stated bluntly that high energy costs and weak employment are forcing the Fed into a "nightmare-level dilemma," and gold's struggle at the $5000 mark reflects the exhaustion of the paper credit system. RJO Futures' Daniel Pavilonis further warned that if the 10-year Treasury yield continues to climb, gold and silver will face a deep correction, with gold even at risk of falling to the abyss of $4200.
Bitcoin Market
Bitcoin is currently experiencing violent fluctuations within the $74,000 to $76,000 range, with options market pricing indicating that short-term volatility expectations are soaring. Although the price once touched a six-week high of $76,000, heavy selling pressure above caused it to pull back after the surge. This rebound relies excessively on leverage-driven derivative markets, with some old players taking the opportunity to sell. On-chain data shows that spot ETF fund flows have turned positive, with over 26,636 BTC accumulated in the past month, and the buyers' average cost line approaching $79,900.
The market remains cautious about this week's Fed FOMC meeting. Although maintaining rates unchanged is widely expected, 7 out of the 8 FOMC meetings in 2025 triggered BTC declines, making market sentiment pessimistic. It is worth noting that although the FOMC meeting is a short-term negative, BTC usually stabilizes within 48-72 hours. Analysts generally believe that if Bitcoin buying fails to follow through, Bitcoin may test the $68,000 support level or even lower. The $70,000 to $71,000 area is seen as the last line of defense for the bulls. As long as the price can stabilize above the range high, this rebound is expected to continue, with most analysts believing it will rise to at least $80,000.
Bearish Views
The core logic of this camp is: macro liquidity tightening expectations, lack of spot buying, and structural fragility in the contract market are shaping the recent rebound into a dangerous "bull trap."
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Mayne: The recent rebound will eventually lead to a lower low. Once the price falls back into the consolidation range, long exposure should be decisively reduced.
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LP: There is continuous selling pressure in the 74K-75K region. If buying fails to follow, the price will test 72K, even filling the CME gap at 71.3K.
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Ardi: 70K-71K is the last line of defense for the bulls. Falling below this level means both the medium-term trendline and horizontal support are lost, and the uptrend is completely exhausted.
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Killa: Since May 2025, BTC has fallen after every FOMC meeting (6 for 6 losses), and the current bear market has only lasted 112 days. Blindly buying the bottom violates cycle规律 (rules).
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Ted: Liquidity above has been liquidated. Next, it will hunt long positions below $70,000, but before that, it might create a false breakout above $76,000 to lure in longs.
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Technical Crypto Analyst: The price encountered resistance in the 74K-79K resistance zone of the rising channel, potentially triggering a deep correction towards the 68K support level.
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Roman: There are no signals of a bear market bottom on the larger timeframes, lacking bullish divergence and bottom volume.
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Jelle: The real bear market bottom is far below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. The market still needs to go through a long period of boring consolidation.
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CryptoQuant Analyst: The market is shifting from spot-driven to overheated derivative-driven. Old players are distributing筹码 (chips). Contract open interest divergence suggests this might be a bull trap.
Bullish Views
The core logic of this camp is: a technical breakout above key resistance, continuous inflow of ETF funds, and the supply compression effect post-halving will provide sufficient fuel for Bitcoin to hit new all-time highs.
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Adam: As long as Powell sends a dovish signal of "controllable inflation," improved liquidity expectations will directly push BTC to challenge the $80,000 mark.
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Mayne: As long as the price can stabilize above the range high, this rebound is expected to continue, with upside targets pointing directly to 80K or even 86K-90K.
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Altcoin Sherpa: If it can break through and hold above the range high, the next wave of上涨 (rise) will look towards 85K-95K. 85K is also near the 200-day EMA.
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that1618guy: Models show the probability of touching 80K upwards in the next 14 days (35.8%) is much higher than the probability of touching 67.5K downwards (21.7%), indicating positive skewness.
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Crypto Tony: The bears failed to continue their offensive during the decline. The bulls are still in control overall. $80,000 is within reach after breaking the previous high.
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IncomeSharks: If the pullback is shallow, touching 80K before the end of the month is entirely possible; the RJALPHA model issued a rare quadruple buy signal at 66K, targeting 92K directly.
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Man of Bitcoin: The weekly Stochastic RSI breaking above 20 releases a bullish signal. Breaking the descending trendline will retest the 50 MA; consolidation below resistance suggests the rally will continue. Holding $70,260 is key.
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Ali Charts: Bitcoin is breaking out upwards. If the daily close can hold above $73,344, it will open up波动 (volatility) space towards $79,234 and $85,555.
Market Dynamics
The regulatory fog in the crypto market is being forcefully dispelled. The latest guidance from the SEC and CFTC categorizes crypto assets into five major categories. This not only liberates Bitcoin and Ethereum but also stamps SOL, XRP, DOGE, and a host of other altcoins as "digital commodities," while also defining clear compliance boundaries for NFTs, airdrops, and cross-chain assets.
Solana is standing at a crossroads of爆发 (breakout). On the weekly chart, SOL once again flashed the "long lower shadow" bottoming signal that accurately predicted the 1604% and 142% surges. Analysts WebTrend and Bluntz pointed out that SOL has completed the accumulation phase and broken out of an ascending triangle. As long as it holds the $93.50 support, the next target will point directly to $120 or even $145.
Key Data (As of March 18, 13:00 HKT)
(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
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Bitcoin ETF: +$199 million, net inflow for 7 consecutive days
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Ethereum ETF: +$138 million, net inflow for 6 consecutive days
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XRP ETF: +$4.6369 million
SOL ETF: +$17.8107 million
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Fear & Greed Index: 26 (Fear)
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Upbit 24h Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, BTC, POLYX, ETH, BTT
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Sector Performance: Crypto market generally corrected, only SocialFi sector held firm relatively
24-hour Liquidation Data: 61,709 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $131 million. BTC liquidations were $52.65 million, ETH $24.12 million, SOL $3.07 million.
Today's Outlook
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Binance HODLer Airdrop launches Phase 62 project Fabric Protocol (ROBO)
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Binance: Katana (KAT) tokens will begin circulation on March 18 at 19:00
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Noble will migrate from Cosmos chain to an independent EVM L1, mainnet planned for launch on March 18
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Lombard (BARD) will unlock approximately 30 million tokens on March 18, worth about $32.3 million
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US Fed FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound): Previous 3.5%, Forecast 3.5% (March 19, 2:00)
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US Fed FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound): Previous 3.75%, Forecast 3.75% (March 19, 2:00)
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Fed Chair Powell Holds Monetary Policy Press Conference (March 19, 2:30)
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Bank of Japan Announces Interest Rate Decision (March 19)
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Bank of England Policy Rate (March 19)
Today's Top 100 Coins by Maximum Gain: Siren up 12%, MemeCore up 7.9%, Kaspa up 5.7%, LayerZero up 5.2%, Jupiter up 3.3%.
Hot News
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Analysis: Strategy last week was the first time to use preferred shares as the main financing tool to increase Bitcoin holdings
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Suspected Cumberland wallet withdrew 543.5 BTC from CEX 6 hours ago, approx. $40.58 million
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Five new addresses withdrew 29,598 ETH from Coinbase 8 hours ago, worth $68.94 million
- <极 p dir="ltr" role="presentation">Hyperliquid HIP-3 market single-day open interest reached $1.43 billion, hitting a record high
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US SEC and CFTC issue new cryptocurrency guidelines, clarifying most digital assets are not securities
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Iran has designated multiple replacements for key national positions, following the confirmed death of the Supreme National Security Council Secretary
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DAO governance platform Tally will shut down operations, citing reduced demand for decentralization due to regulatory relaxation
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Sharplink: Staking收益 (yield) last week was 493 ETH, cumulative staking yield reaches 15,464 ETH
