Author: Haotian
After recent in-depth discussions with a few veteran on-chain friends, we reached a high level of consensus on the survival rules for the current cycle. The market has completely shifted from "listening to stories, speculating on expectations" to "looking at cash flow, verifying real-world implementation." Below are several crypto trading mindsets for your reference:
1) Prioritize assets with genuine value-capturing capabilities.
In a bull market, the market is willing to pay for stories and future expectations; in a bear market, it only recognizes real cash flow and verifiable buyback/burn records. The true "get-out-of-jail-free card" in this cycle is a protocol that can consistently generate fees and directly return value to token holders through mechanisms like buybacks, token burns, or dividends. Examples include launchpad concept tokens like $UNI, $PUMP, $PONS, and this cycle's buyback king, $HYPE;
2) Only select projects with proven Product-Market Fit (PMF) and a complete operational loop.
The next cycle will likely revolve around two primary narratives related to "Asset Tokenization" and the "Agentic Economy" (including Perps, Prediction Markets, Stablecoins, Payment). The market preference will shift from favoring technological roadmaps to verifying practical utility and implementation. Projects without real users, real transaction loops, or real revenue will be quickly filtered out. Following this logic, concept tokens like $ONDO, $VVV, $VIRTUAL, etc., warrant a focus on practical metrics such as actual AUM, trading volume, and fee generation capabilities;
3) Choose assets with strong "consensus."
We have to admit that after several market cycles, the only thing that has truly stood the test of time in the crypto industry is two words: "Consensus." Please note, this refers to consensus that develops organically in the market and possesses cross-cycle staying power. Do not mistake the so-called "consensus" manufactured by industrial-scale hype or a random tweet from someone like xxx. The real potential lies in those older assets that newcomers might not understand at all, yet maintain decent liquidity and continue to thrive. Examples include veteran cult meme tokens like $DOGE, $PEPE, $PEOPLE, or leading assets in various niche sectors like $ZEC, $TAO, etc. Having weathered multiple bull and bear markets, these assets possess strong, organic community vitality and are prime targets for major capital to cycle through and manipulate repeatedly;
4) Try to avoid pure VC-backed tokens.
If I said altcoins are dead, you might counter by arguing that financial markets move in cycles. But if I say VC tokens are dead, few would disagree. Tokens with high Fully Diluted Valuations (FDV), low circulating supply, and continuous large unlocks are destined to rely solely on airdrop hype around their Token Generation Event (TGE). If such a project lacks genuine value-capturing ability, it inevitably faces a lack of momentum post-launch and the awkward reality of unlocks leading to sell-offs. This is the fundamental reason for the "non-frenzied bull, painfully deep bear" nature of this cycle. With hordes of eager VCs waiting to unlock and dump, how can retail investors dare touch such tokens?
Note: The above points are merely summaries from personal discussions with friends. The mentioned tokens are used solely as examples and do not constitute investment advice.
