Author: sysls
Compiled by: Luffy, Foresight News
Original title: Breaking Through the Kill Line: Long-Term Speculation Has Become the Only Choice for Young People
I am not a stock-picking expert. I believe in a strategy of casting a wide net with a low win rate (≤53%), but I am willing to bet everything on one idea: long-term speculation will be the dominant socio-economic theme of the next century.
This also explains why people over 40 advise you to focus on your job and seek a salary increase, while people of other age groups ignore this advice and relentlessly pursue any opportunity that promises them a chance to get rich quickly.
The best commodity to sell to such people is hope. Once you understand this, you can see why various casinos (including decentralized exchanges, prediction markets, etc.) are rising, and why trading mentors, business gurus, paid courses, and of course, paid Substack subscriptions, are thriving.
The Beginning of the Dilemma
Being trapped doesn't necessarily require a tangible cage. Today, a generation is moving forward with invisible shackles.
They know a certain life exists: owning a home and a car, living a stable life, and being rewarded for thirty years of hard work. They know some people are living this life but cannot imagine how to get there themselves. It's not a question of difficulty; they simply cannot chart a feasible path from their current situation to that ideal life.
The traditional path to wealth accumulation has long been closed—not just made more difficult, but completely blocked. When the baby boomer generation, representing 20% of the population, holds nearly 50% of the nation's wealth, while millennials, with the same population share, hold only 10%, the inherent flaws of this wealth accumulation mechanism are exposed.
The ladder to climb up has been pulled away. This wasn't necessarily intentional by the baby boomers; rising asset prices naturally benefit asset holders. But regardless of intent, the end result is the same.
The Collapse of the Traditional Contract
In the past, society's implicit contract was simple: show up on time, work hard, be loyal to the company, and you will be rewarded. Companies provided pensions, seniority mattered greatly, and houses appreciated in value while you slept. If you trusted the system, it would work for you.
Today, that contract is null and void.
Staying with one company for 20 years is no longer a career advantage but a liability. Salaries have increased by only 8%, while housing prices have doubled, and the debt burden on young people has soared by about 33%. Patience alone does not yield a path to wealth.
I once thought things were bad enough, but with the rise of artificial intelligence and its impending economic impact, I realize the situation will only get worse.
When the system no longer rewards patience, people naturally abandon it. This is rational adaptation.
Push and Pull Forces
Currently, two forces are driving young people forward.
Pull: Unfulfilled Higher-Level Needs
Modern society has largely solved the lower levels of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Food is cheap, basic housing is attainable, and safety, healthcare, and basic employment, while not guaranteed, are sufficient to keep most young people from struggling for survival.
The previous generations facing economic pressure dealt with a different困境. When you worry about putting food on the table, you have no time to ponder the meaning of life. Keeping your head down and working hard is the obvious choice because not doing so means going hungry. You accept a stable job, play by the rules, because that job is your lifeline.
This generation lacks such survival shackles.
When survival needs are met, humans pursue higher-level needs: belonging, esteem, and self-actualization. They crave rich life experiences, meaning in life, a sense of direction and purpose, not day-after-day repetition. However, the traditional paths to achieving these higher-level needs—buying a home, career advancement, financial security—are precisely the ones that have been blocked.
Essentially, we are like a group of apes instinctively scratching at the "wound" of self-actualization, bleeding profusely but helpless, with no idea how to break through.
Push: The Creeping Anxiety of Survival
Artificial intelligence is encroaching on white-collar jobs, a fact known to all.
This anxiety is not unfounded. ChatGPT writes copy better than most junior marketers; Midjourney generates visuals surpassing entry-level designers; Cursor and Claude write code good enough to pass review. Except for those severely lagging in skills, almost everyone acknowledges this.
Every month, new test data shows AI reaching or surpassing human levels in tasks that once required advanced degrees and years of training.
White-collar workers, or those seeking to improve their financial situation, are watching their career expiration dates shorten. Three years ago, "AI replacing knowledge workers" was a thought experiment; today, it's a default premise in corporate planning. Everyone is asking "when," not "if," and the predicted timelines keep moving earlier.
Compounding this is social media, which makes you perpetually dissatisfied with your current situation.
The algorithm's ultimate goal is to show you the life you *could* have. Vacation spots you haven't visited, apartments you can't afford, a more refined life one level above yours. No matter what stage of life you're in, someone is living your dream life, and the algorithm ensures you see it.
Previous generations had limited exposure to others' lives—neighbors, colleagues, a few celebrities in magazines—a very narrow reference frame. Now, the reference frame is infinitely vast. A 25-year-old earning $70,000 a year constantly sees content about peers making $2 million, living in Bali, working only 4 hours a day. The standard for "good" is constantly raised.
You can never catch up. No matter what you achieve, social media will always show you what you're missing. The gap between your real life and your ideal life is maintained by the algorithm, forever unbridgeable.
On one side, AI is compressing career prospects; on the other, social media ensures perpetual dissatisfaction. The pressure to "escape the trap while you still can" grows daily.
Anxiety is ubiquitous. Every white-collar worker has wondered: "Can AI replace my job? When?" Most answers are not optimistic. Even if they think they're safe for now, that "for now" keeps getting shorter.
Thus, this generation is caught in a dilemma: they can't afford traditional life milestones, and they believe the traditional path might disappear before they reach the end. With money and opportunity still in hand, going all-in becomes the most rational choice.
After all, why slave away for twenty years for a promotion that might not exist in ten?
The Maslow Trap
When you can survive but cannot move forward, something inside breaks. You aren't desperate enough to accept any condition, yet you are barred from the opportunities that truly matter. The energy originally used for survival transforms entirely into frustration, confusion, and a desperate search for any possible way out.
Career advancement isn't just about a raise; it's about gaining a sense of purpose, identity, and the satisfaction that your work has value. Financial security isn't just about money; it's about having the cushion to take risks, the freedom to travel the world, and the ability to create.
When these paths are blocked, and the time window to achieve goals is shrinking, the pressure must find an outlet. These "prisoners" desperately need a way out, and they need it now.
The Casino: The Only Lifeline
I first saw this phenomenon in the public chain sector of cryptocurrency, initially dismissing it as a passing fad. Later, this trend appeared in NFTs, then intensified in the chaos of perpetual contract decentralized exchanges, and has now spread to the so-called "prediction market super cycle."
Young people unwilling to grind away at the same company are willing to spend months studying crypto trading; they invest significant effort researching prediction markets, trying to understand this "rigged economy" they deeply believe in; those who mock traditional investing as an "inside game" will bet their rent money on a Meme coin.
Why?
Because the casino is the only place they feel a sense of control. Here, their decisions *might*, within a timeframe they care about, open the door to a better standard of living.
The traditional career path? Your boss gets promoted based on seniority, not ability, and your department could be automated away at any time. Stock market investing? Sure, you can make 10% a year and afford a house in 47 years, provided your job still exists.
But cryptocurrency? Prediction markets? Sports betting? Here, your research *can* matter, your conviction *can* pay off. Even if it's just a "perceived edge," it's entirely your own, not reliant on anyone's favor. Placing bets here, your judgment directly influences the outcome.
The casino does have a house edge; most people will ultimately lose. I think most people actually know this. But they participate anyway, unwilling to wait for a future that may never come. Those who advise them to "stop gambling" misunderstand the prisoners' dilemma and often do so with an intellectual superiority of "it's a negative expected value gamble." My point is: these gamblers are well aware.
Those who say "gambling is harmful, you should stop" almost always come from the privileged upper financial class. They can see a way out, they can find a path, hence they preach the virtues of "playing by the rules."
But for the countless people trapped in financial cages, gambling is their redemption. And the admonishers' words are tantamount to asking them to accept a fate of perpetual stagnation. This is why they resist, why your well-intentioned advice falls on deaf ears.
Cold Data: The Reality Behind the Frenzy
What do the specific numbers say?
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Prediction Markets: In November 2025 alone, trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi, the two major platforms, exceeded $10 billion, with annual total trading volume approaching $40 billion. In 2020, this number was almost zero; the growth curve is almost vertical.
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Sports Betting: Revenue from legal sports betting skyrocketed from $248 million in 2017 to $13.7 billion in 2024. Millennials and Gen Z contributed 76% of the betting volume, with these two groups' activity on online sports betting platforms increasing by 7% year-over-year.
A TransUnion report defines these bettors as "speculators":他们是城市租客,频繁使用加密货币应用,活跃于移动端交易平台。这群被传统财富积累路径拒之门外的年轻人,正在唯一能提供非对称回报的市场里,孤注一掷。(Urban renters, frequent users of cryptocurrency apps, active on mobile trading platforms. This group, shut out from traditional wealth accumulation paths, is going all-in in the only markets offering asymmetric returns.)
Confirmation from Economic Theory
When people are trapped, their risk preferences change.
Economists call this phenomenon "loss convexity utility": when you are already in a losing position, you prefer to gamble for a small chance to break even rather than accept a certain small loss. This is why people double down after losing money in blackjack and why lottery tickets sell better in low-income communities.
In my view, social media and the drive for higher-level needs create the illusion of "being at a loss" for those far from the upper financial class. The baseline for "break-even" is completely raised. This explains why someone can seriously say "an annual salary of $150,000 is the new poverty line." This generation gambles not to survive, but to truly *live*.
When basic needs are met but higher-level needs are blocked, the meaning of money shifts from "ensuring security" to "buying a ticket"—a ticket to experiences, freedom, and that elusive ideal life. A house is no longer just shelter; it's the foundation for putting down roots, building community, and a symbol of adulthood; travel is no longer a luxury but an experience that makes life worthwhile.
For this generation, since the traditional paths show no hope of achieving these goals, the expected value of going all-in begins to exceed the expected value of keeping their head down. If your life's baseline is "stuck forever," then a perceived 5% chance of a turnaround is mathematically far more attractive than a 100% certainty of remaining stuck.
This is not financial ignorance; it's a rational choice within a constrained environment.
The Meme coin speculators, sports bettors, prediction market regulars, and buyers of paid trading courses all know the odds are slim. They also know they have no other choice. When the options are "certainly stuck" and "probably stuck but with a slim chance," anyone would choose the latter.
Long-Term Speculation
So, what should we bet on?
If my judgment is correct, and this generation, locked in an economic trap, will continue seeking a sense of control through high-volatility financial products; then, all sectors meeting this demand are worth long-term investment.
Regardless of user wins or losses, the platform always wins. You need to find platforms that don't care about users' bet outcomes but profit from transaction fees, and the trading activity on such platforms is持续飙升 (soaring持续).
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Entrepreneurship Sector: The "escape the 9-to-5" industry landscape is expanding rapidly. People sell dropshipping tutorials, teach agency models, peddle "make six figures a month" secrets. "Becoming an entrepreneur" has long become a socially acceptable "lottery"—it sounds positive, full of control, as if you are building your own business. Most entrepreneurs will ultimately fail, but this does little to dampen enthusiasm, just as low odds don't affect lottery sales.
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Prediction Markets: Polymarket's valuation has reached $8-10 billion. People predict the overall potential market size of this sector is comparable to the entire gambling industry, exceeding one trillion dollars. Even if this prediction is 90%水分 (exaggerated/water), it's still a massive market.
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Cryptocurrency Infrastructure: Custody, trading, staking, lending—each wave of frenzy requires new entry channels. Coinbase, Robinhood's crypto business line, various specialized exchanges, all profit from trading volume, regardless of market fluctuations.
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Sports Betting Operators: DraftKings, FanDuel, and their infrastructure providers. Legal sports betting is gradually rolling out across US states, with regulatory barriers building strong moats.
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Social Trading & Community Platforms: Discord, X platform, Substack serving this demographic. These platforms gather massive attention, and users are willing to pay for so-called "exclusive insider information."
We are betting not on the success or failure of a particular speculator, but on the persistence of this phenomenon. The underlying economic realities driving young people towards high-risk speculation will not change easily. Platforms profiting from fees will grow alongside their user base. Those trapped in financial cages will place bets again and again, never stopping.
Combining what we know about AI trends, high housing prices, imbalanced wealth distribution, intergenerational economic disparities... is all this really just temporary?
Moral Considerations
It needs to be clear that my argument is descriptive, not prescriptive.
Watching a generation pin its hopes of financial redemption on various "lotteries" is hardly a cause for celebration. When prediction markets and Meme coins become the only paths people have to seek a sense of control, it is itself a symptom of a malfunctioning society. The house always wins; most players will ultimately lose.
But understanding the reality of what is happening allows you to find your position. It allows you to reflect on the status quo and decide whether to participate. If you choose to get involved, you must stay清醒 (sober/clear-headed) and only place bets where you have an advantage.
The casinos of every era profit from people's desperation. And the current desperation is real, documented, and growing. These casinos are the peddlers of hope—Polymarket, Coinbase, DraftKings are all among them. They will continuously extract fees, profiting handsomely.
You can stand on moral high ground and criticize it all, or you can choose to invest in these platforms. Ironically, the latter is one of the few paths that might allow you to escape the financial cage yourself. Or, you can join the ranks of the gamblers—but if you choose this path, you must be exceptionally good.
Because this is not a game. We are talking about your life. If you are going to gamble with your life, you must do everything possible to give yourself the best odds.
Conclusion
Let me tell you a true story.
I know someone, very smart, works in tech, with an income that is quite substantial by any historical standard. Last month, he invested $100,000刷 (to farm/grind for) platform points on some perpetual contract decentralized exchange. He didn't do this because he thought it was a good investment.
But because, in his words: "What else can I do? Save for twenty years and buy an apartment at 55?"
I know very well that when the next decentralized exchange appears, he will gamble again.
The era of long-term speculation has only just begun.
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