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On Sunday, September 6th, Bitcoin ($BTC) is trading around the $80k mark, having risen approximately 2.5% over the past week. Experts have analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for Bitcoin's price movement over the next seven days.
"Reminiscent of early 2023"
Alexander Krayko, Lead Analyst at crypto broker Cifra Markets
Last week, Bitcoin traded in the range of $76–82k. The local high was around $82.3k, but the early May high above $82.8k remains unbroken.
Several factors were the main catalysts for the growth. On September 3rd, US Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller advocated keeping the current rate at the September meeting, which lowered expectations for a rate hike and supported risk assets.
On the same day, US spot Bitcoin ETFs received about $731 million in inflows—the highest figure since January. An additional long-term factor remains the expansion of US Treasury buybacks, which indirectly improves conditions for risk assets.
Furthermore, market expectations for the advancement of the US CLARITY Act bill have intensified. A Senate vote is scheduled for September 15th, so this topic may remain an additional positive factor for the crypto market.
In terms of price movement, the current situation is reminiscent of early 2023, when after a rise from $15k to $20k, expectations for the launch of the first US Bitcoin ETFs began to actively form. Now we also see a combination of price recovery, institutional demand, and positive regulation.
Technically, since August 21st, Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase and is now testing the 50-week moving average, which often acts as resistance in a downtrend. At the same time, the absence of a sharp pullback after approaching this line looks positive.
For the next week, the base scenario is a continuation of consolidation around $74–80k near the 50-week moving average, followed by an attempt at further growth. However, securing above $82–83k will be an important signal for a continuation of the upward movement.
Ethereum ($ETH) has moved almost in sync with Bitcoin over the past two weeks, showing no pronounced independent dynamics.
Regarding altcoins, I note that the main hype is currently concentrated around the new Robinhood Chain ecosystem, where there is massive trading volume and a large number of memecoins are being launched.
Among the leading altcoins, Uniswap (UNI) is showing strong growth—about 90% over the last three weeks. Uniswap has also purchased an undisclosed share of PONS tokens from the Pons platform—a launchpad through which most of the memecoins trading on Robinhood Chain are launched.
"Do not buy low-quality tokens"
Nikita Bredikhin, Lead Investment Analyst at Go Invest
The greatest impact on the cryptocurrency market last week was exerted by macroeconomic factors and the revision of investor expectations regarding US interest rate dynamics. This occurred after the conclusion of the annual Jackson Hole symposium and the publication of August labor market statistics.
The rhetoric of the Fed Chairman turned out to be more hawkish than market expectations. Kevin Warsh criticized the regulator's rate forecasts and also noted that inflation remains above the 2% target and the economy is resilient. August labor market data confirms this: the US economy created 162,000 jobs against forecasts of 53–65,000. Previous months were also revised upward.
Against this backdrop, the probability of a rate hike on September 16th increased to 50%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current level by year-end is only 17%. Treasury yields may remain high, continuing to put pressure on financial markets. The US Treasury's operations to replace long bonds with shorter ones are unlikely to change the situation: investors expect a short-term effect on the yield curve, but higher interest expenses due to the higher coupons on new issues.
Historically, doubts about the sustainability of US sovereign debt have supported cryptocurrencies, as they serve as a hedge against fiat currency risks alongside gold. However, in this case, the rise in long-term Treasury yields is justified by the hawkish Fed rhetoric and expectations of a Fed rate hike, growing budget deficit, high inflation, and competition for capital from the largest technology companies.
Inflows into spot cryptocurrency ETFs have been positive for the last 5 weeks, indicating a partial capital rotation from other asset classes, most likely from stocks of semiconductor, memory manufacturers, and AI developers.
However, we believe the current rise is more of a short-term nature, as the market does not yet account for the risks of a US Fed rate hike. In our base forecast, we expect more of a sideways trend within a wide range than a continuation of the rise. So far, macroeconomic factors are not in favor of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin.
At this moment, we still recommend avoiding risk and not buying low-quality tokens without sustainable cash flows, high network activity, and fee burning or buyback programs. Current levels are favorable for reducing positions in weak projects, as in a general market decline, the fall of such coins will occur much faster.
Simultaneously, fundamentally strong projects, such as $ETH, SOL, HYPE, as well as $BTC, retain long-term growth potential. However, they also carry the risk of correction in a general market decline. Long-term investors can use these corrections to establish long-term investment positions.
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