Stop Gambling Within the Framework of Luck

marsbitPublicado em 2026-01-05Última atualização em 2026-01-05

Resumo

Stop Gambling Under the Guise of Fortune Human instinct drives us to act quickly when facing problems, creating an illusion that action alone can ease the anxiety of the unknown. However, the greatest trap lies in the mismatch between rapid action and the resources invested. Most actions are merely pseudo-diligence aimed at alleviating anxiety. When the speed of action surpasses the precision of thought, the consumption of capital is no longer an investment—it becomes a gamble on luck. This is a common pitfall, and the ability to confront it and develop effective solutions truly separates individuals. The first step is to find your unique edge. Rather than following idealized or high-barrier methods, the author suggests using AI as a "cognitive leverage amplifier" to help identify personal strengths. By engaging in detailed self-analysis through AI conversations—discussing childhood, personality, investment experiences, and missed opportunities—one can uncover and refine their advantages through constructive dialogue and counterarguments. The second step involves building an execution framework. After identifying a direction, it’s crucial to establish a systematic approach that allows agile responses to dynamic market conditions. This framework is built through复盘 (review and reflection)—extracting underlying logical patterns from past experiences, such as recognizing similar opportunities like $AERO and $ZORA based on Coinbase’s strategic needs, and turning them into a reu...

Author: Yuzhong Kuangshui

Human instinct drives us to take immediate action when faced with problems, as if action can alleviate the anxiety of the unknown. However, the biggest trap lies in the fact that people's rapid actions often do not match the resources they commit. Most people's actions are merely pseudo-diligence to relieve anxiety. When the speed of action exceeds the precision of thinking, the consumption of your principal is no longer an investment but a gamble on luck—you are using tactical diligence to掩盖 strategic laziness.

This is a problem everyone encounters. Whether one can face this problem directly and develop effective solutions can truly widen the gap between people.

Remember, think before you act.

Step One: Find Your Unique Advantage

0xlykt has written two articles on how to "Finding Edge".

https://0xlykt.substack.com/p/finding-edge

https://0xlykt.substack.com/p/finding-edge-part-2-table-selection

I recommend reading these two articles before continuing.

Simply put, 0xlykt has constructed a capability framework to help the general public seek opportunities in the current crypto market environment. The core idea is to encourage market participants to actively choose a suitable table with many fish and engage in positive-sum games.

However, I believe these two articles are referential, but the described approach has a high threshold, is too idealized, and not suitable for everyone.

Personally, I think that at the practical level, we can completely find a path suitable for ourselves and effective through dialogue with AI. As @Wuhuoqiu mentioned, "AI is not a 'cognitive leveler' but a 'cognitive leverage amplifier'."

The specific form of prompts varies from person to person. The core idea is to analyze and extend. Analyze your own personality, cognition, and ability framework, thereby extending execution ideas and details for different scenarios.

Don't ask AI how to make money, whether to buy or sell, but confide your thoughts and current situation to AI.

Talk to AI about:

  • Your childhood, personality, hobbies, and early life experiences;
  • Your investment experiences and summaries, judgments about the future;
  • The assets you are bullish on, your holdings and logic, and holding period;
  • What opportunities you missed and why.

One thing to note here is that AI tends to agree with you, so you need to find points you don't understand or doubt in AI's responses and continue discussing them. Or, you need to remind AI not to be your yes-man but to refute you with reason.

This kind of conversation is essentially a dialogue between the superficial you and the inner you, more confrontational. The conversation should be against the current, not with it.

Advantages and potential advantages will emerge in the conversation. After all, using AI to perform elimination is much more efficient than thinking and practicing one by one. What follows tests your execution ability to monetize your advantages.

Step Two: Establish an Execution Framework

Finding an advantage is essentially finding the direction to make money. After finding the direction, it's not all smooth sailing; you need to make persistent efforts to build a systematic framework for your subsequent execution.

The core goal of building a systematic framework is to give you the ability to react agilely in a dynamically changing market—to respond quickly based on different market conditions and types of opportunities.

The core of building a systematic framework is review and summarization.

For example.

If you reviewed the pumping process of $AERO (listing, Coinbase spot listing, and pumping time nodes, etc.), you wouldn't have missed the opportunity of $ZORA's rise. Both trades correspond to Coinbase's core needs. $AERO corresponds to the Dencun upgrade; Coinbase needed to pump $AERO's price to capture liquidity for Base. Similarly, $ZORA corresponds to Coinbase's core needs; Coinbase is betting its future on Base App and Creator Coins. Zora is a core component of Base's new phase; Coinbase needed to pump $ZORA to expand the influence of Base and Creator Coins. In my view, the opportunistic nature of $AERO and $ZORA is identical.

Review and summarization are not limited to the empirical induction of each trade but to extract the underlying logical commonality from individual cases and transform it into a reusable decision-making model: signal recognition -> logic verification -> execution entry.

Finally

After all this rambling, simply put, what I want to say is to know yourself. Most of the pain in trading often comes from the mismatch between personality and holdings. Give up the fantasy of being omnipotent; human ability has boundaries. You can't have it all. Find or cultivate your advantages, and use your own strengths and the ability framework built upon them to make money.

Wish everyone a Happy New Year!

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the main trap the author warns against when facing problems, according to the article?

AThe main trap is that human instinct drives immediate action to alleviate anxiety about the unknown, but rapid action often doesn't match the resources invested. This leads to 'pseudo-diligence' where people are essentially gambling with their capital, using tactical busyness to掩盖 strategic laziness.

QWhat is the core idea behind 0xlykt's 'Finding Edge' framework as described in the article?

AThe core idea of 0xlykt's 'Finding Edge' framework is to encourage market participants to actively choose a 'table' (a market or opportunity) that suits them and has many 'fish' (opportunities or participants), engaging in a positive-sum game rather than a zero-sum one.

QHow does the author suggest using AI to find one's unique advantage, and what should the conversation focus on?

AThe author suggests having a dialog with AI that focuses on introspection and extension. One should talk to the AI about their childhood, personality, hobbies, early life experiences, investment history and summaries, future judgments, favored assets and the logic behind holding them, missed opportunities, and the reasons for missing them. The conversation should be adversarial, with the user prompting the AI to challenge their ideas rather than just agree.

QWhat is the purpose of building a 'system framework' after finding one's edge?

AThe purpose of building a 'system framework' is to equip oneself with the ability to react agilely in a dynamically changing market. It allows for quick responses based on different market conditions and types of opportunities, moving beyond just finding a direction to creating a structured approach for execution.

QWhat common underlying logic does the author illustrate using the examples of $AERO and $ZORA?

AThe author illustrates that the price surges of $AERO and $ZORA both stemmed from the same underlying logic: they corresponded to core needs of Coinbase. $AERO was tied to the Dencun upgrade and Coinbase's need to capture liquidity for Base, while $ZORA was a core component for Coinbase's new phase focusing on the Base App and Creator Coins, requiring a price pump to increase their influence. The commonality is identifying and acting on signals related to a major platform's strategic needs.

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The Senate Banking Committee held a confirmation hearing for Judy Shelton, a Federal Reserve nominee, who faced intense questioning regarding her ability to maintain the central bank's independence amid pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates. Shelton denied any pre-arranged commitments on rate cuts and emphasized her independence, though Democrats remained skeptical, citing contradictions with Trump's public statements. Shelton characterized post-pandemic inflation as a major policy failure and called for a "regime change" in the Fed’s approach, including reforms to inflation measurement and communication strategies. She criticized the current practice of Fed officials frequently signaling future rate moves and did not commit to maintaining post-meeting press conferences, suggesting potential reductions in transparency. Regarding crypto markets, Shelton’s extensive investments in digital asset companies—including Solana, DeFi, and blockchain infrastructure—were noted, though she has pledged to divest these holdings due to ethics rules. Her familiarity with the crypto industry and deregulatory leanings may signal a more open, though cautious, stance toward digital assets. However, concerns were raised about potential conflicts of interest, especially given Trump family involvement in crypto-financial ventures. The timing of her confirmation remains uncertain, pending a Justice Department investigation into current Chair Powell. Shelton’s potential leadership could lead to a more hawkish, productivity-focused Fed with tighter policy communication—factors that may significantly influence liquidity conditions and macro narratives for crypto markets.

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