Shiba Inu’s bear run can continue for another 7 months – Here’s why

ambcryptoPublicado em 2026-03-22Última atualização em 2026-03-22

Resumo

The top memecoins, including Shiba Inu (SHIB), have shown minimal price movement recently, with SHIB down 0.51% over the past week. Despite potential short-term rallies, long-term holder sentiment remains bearish due to two key metrics. The percent of SHIB's circulating supply in profit is at a meager 3.07%, near historical bear market lows. Additionally, the MVRV ratio is significantly below its all-time mean, indicating extreme deviation similar to the 2022 bear market. If these trends repeat, the bear run could persist until September 2026. Even potential positive developments are unlikely to reverse the prevailing pessimistic outlook and bearish price structure.

The top memecoins have not made much headway from where they were. Among the top four memecoins by market capitalization, Shiba Inu [SHIB] and Pepe [PEPE] were within 2% of where their prices were a week ago.

Memecoin [M] has gained 10% over the past week, while Dogecoin [DOGE] has shed 3.8%.

Shiba Inu was down by 0.51% from last week. The lack of momentum for Bitcoin in recent days has likely affected the memecoin sector’s top assets. The short-term lackluster performance was a smokescreen.

Even if SHIB rallied by 10% or more next week, its long-term holder sentiment would be firmly bearish. Two metrics helped explain the pessimism behind the meme.

2 areas of worry for Shiba Inu bulls

Source: Glassnode

The percent supply in profit metric tracks the percentage of SHIB’s circulating supply in profit. At the time of writing, it was at a meager 3.07%. For context, October 2023 saw 3.93% supply in profit, the lowest figure in recent years.

February 2026 saw the metric reach 2.86%. The circulating supply has been at bear market profit levels lately. The deep holder losses meant sentiment around the memecoin was extremely pessimistic.

Source: Glassnode

The MVRV ratio and its deviation from the all-time mean can also be used to mark extremes in SHIB pricing. During the 2022 bear market, the MVRV was between 0.5 and 1 standard deviation below the mean.

It was an extreme deviation, and it lasted from May 2022 to January 2023. If the same trends repeat, Shiba Inu could see its bear market continue until September 2026.

The low profitability and extremely low MVRV values confirmed a multi-month bear market ahead for SHIB. Even news, such as the proposed ETF by T.Rowe Price that could expand to volatile assets like Shiba Inu, might not be enough to lift the memecoin from its bearish trend.

The price structure on the higher timeframes was bearish. A bounce toward the swing highs would present a selling opportunity and would be unlikely to be breakout-type trades.

Final Summary

  • The circulating supply in profit and extreme deviation in MVRV from its all-time mean confirmed that Shiba Inu was in a cyclical bear market.
  • If historical trends repeat, the current bear market would likely persist till September 2026.

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat are the two key metrics that indicate Shiba Inu is in a bear market?

AThe two key metrics are the percent supply in profit, which is at a meager 3.07%, and the MVRV ratio, which is showing an extreme deviation below its all-time mean.

QHow long could Shiba Inu's bear market potentially last based on historical trends?

ABased on the duration of the 2022 bear market trend, the current bear market could potentially persist until September 2026.

QWhat was the performance of the top memecoins like SHIB and DOGE over the past week?

AShiba Inu (SHIB) was down 0.51% and Dogecoin (DOGE) shed 3.8% over the past week, showing a general lack of momentum.

QWhy is the sentiment around Shiba Inu described as extremely pessimistic?

AThe sentiment is extremely pessimistic because a vast majority of the circulating supply is held at a loss, with the percent supply in profit at bear market levels of around 3%.

QAccording to the article, what event might not be enough to lift SHIB from its bearish trend?

ANews such as the proposed ETF by T.Rowe Price that could expand to include volatile assets like Shiba Inu might not be enough to lift the memecoin from its bearish trend.

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