Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
Remember Leopold Aschenbrenner? The 24-year-old 'AI prodigy' we introduced in the article "SBF's Junior, Who Turned $225 Million into $5.5 Billion in One Year".
Leopold Aschenbrenner worked at FTX's Future Fund in 2022 and stayed with the team until FTX's collapse. In 2024, Leopold Aschenbrenner wrote a 165-page mega-paper titled "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead" and in the same year founded a fund of the same name, Situational Awareness LP, where he serves as Chief Investment Officer.
Situational Awareness LP focuses on investment opportunities in the AI industry chain. The fund's publicly disclosed holdings were 'only' $225 million in Q4 2024, but in the Q4 2025 holdings disclosure released this February, this figure had skyrocketed to $5.5 billion. This explosive investment return performance has also made Leopold Aschenbrenner and Situational Awareness LP highly renowned, becoming one of the most watched AI investment trends on the internet.
Now, Situational Awareness LP is approaching the critical window for a new round of holdings disclosure (13F). Since last week, the entire internet has been collectively waiting, anticipating the fund's 'version answer' on how to position for AI at present, but as of this writing, Situational Awareness LP's disclosure has still not arrived.
13F refers to the quarterly disclosure documents mandated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for funds with assets under management exceeding $100 million. SEC requires that funds meeting the disclosure threshold must submit this document within 45 days after the end of each calendar quarter. The fund must focus on disclosing its holdings in U.S. listed stocks, call/put options, convertible bonds, and specific ETF positions at the end of the previous quarter.
It is already May 18th, three days past the Q1 2026 disclosure deadline of May 15th. Over the past few days, several sovereign wealth funds, university endowments, and traditional financial institutions have disclosed their Q1 13F holdings reports, but the market is still waiting for Situational Awareness LP's disclosure.
Based on various market analyses, the following three situations may have affected Situational Awareness LP's 13F disclosure progress.
The first possibility is that Situational Awareness LP may have submitted the file to the SEC after 5:30 PM on May 15th itself. Since that day was a Friday, the SEC did not have time to process it, so the document would need to be published on the SEC's website the following Monday before the public can see it.
This is the mainstream view in the market. If this is the case, we are expected to see Situational Awareness LP's 13F filing later today (or tomorrow at the latest).
The second possibility is that Situational Awareness LP applied for confidential treatment from the SEC. This is a legal mechanism provided by the SEC, allowing large funds to delay the public disclosure of their holdings information that is still being accumulated, with delays lasting up to a year in some cases.
Generally, funds apply for confidential treatment for only one reason — they are building a position large enough that if the market learns about it prematurely, it would move the price against them before they finish accumulating. If this is the reason this time, it means Leopold Aschenbrenner is quietly accumulating a significant asset and temporarily does not want the market to know. This would undoubtedly warrant more attention from the market.
The third possibility is almost impossible, which is that Situational Awareness LP significantly reduced its holdings in the past quarter and has dropped its holding size below the 13F disclosure threshold ($100 million). However, considering the fund held $5.5 billion last quarter, this scenario is extremely unlikely.
In summary, we just need to wait patiently for another 1 to 2 days to learn the real reason for Situational Awareness LP's delayed disclosure this time.
If it's the first case, we will bring you an analysis of the changes in holdings as soon as the 13F is released. If it's the second reason, the entire internet will truly be on edge — what exactly is Leopold Aschenbrenner hoarding? That will be the moment for all kinds of investigative experts to shine.
