The prediction market Polymarket has practically settled on the favorite for the upcoming elections to the Russian State Duma. As of August 10, the contract for a victory by "United Russia" was valued at 98.3%, while the probability of the best result for "Yabloko" is below 1%. The total trading volume for this market has already reached $3.02 million, making it one of the most liquid political contracts related to Russian elections.
This refers specifically to bets by participants on a prediction market, not an official forecast of election results. On Polymarket, the price of a contract reflects the implied probability: currently, one can buy a "Yes" contract for a victory by "United Russia" for about $0.985, meaning the market is pricing in a probability of around 98.5%. The final settlement of the contract will depend on which party receives the largest number of seats in the State Duma.
Struggles for other positions remain secondary. In the current market structure, the Communist Party (KPRF), "New People," LDPR, "A Just Russia — For Truth," and other parties are given less than a 1% chance of becoming the largest faction. For "Yabloko," the estimate is also around 1%, with trading volume for its contract amounting to about $16.5 thousand.
At the same time, a separate prediction market has formed around "Yabloko" — Polymarket offers traders to answer the question of whether the party will be barred from participating in the elections before September 17. Currently, the probability of a "Yes" outcome is about 67%, with contract trading volume at $43.7 thousand.
There is an important nuance here. According to Polymarket rules, an "effective ban" is not just problems for individual candidates. The market will count a "Yes" outcome if an official decision deprives "Yabloko" of the opportunity to participate with a federal party list. For example, registration is canceled, the party is excluded from the ballot, or it loses the right to participate in the elections. A voluntary withdrawal of the party itself does not count as such an event.
At the same time, the market itself notes that "Yabloko's" federal and single-member district lists were registered in late July, meaning formally the party has the right to participate in the elections. However, today the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation will consider a lawsuit to cancel the registration of the federal list of candidates for State Duma deputies from the "Yabloko" party. Therefore, the current 67% probability reflects traders' expectations of a possible change in the situation before the cutoff date, not an already implemented ban.
Another interesting indicator is the market for "Yabloko" overcoming the vote threshold to enter the State Duma. Currently, Polymarket assigns this scenario just 4%. Thus, several related contracts together paint a clear picture of traders' expectations — "United Russia" is viewed as the unrivalled favorite for first place, while "Yabloko's" chances are assessed significantly lower by the market, both in terms of victory and overcoming the electoral threshold.
Voting in the elections for State Duma deputies is scheduled for September 18, 19, and 20, 2026.
It is important to note that Polymarket quotes reflect the expectations and positions of market participants at a specific point in time. They are not an official forecast of the Central Election Commission, the result of a sociological survey, or a guarantee of the future outcome. Data is provided as of August 10, 2026, and may change as new information emerges and trading activity shifts.
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