By: Marc Vartabedian, New York Post
Compiled by: Luffy, Foresight News
The prediction market platform Polymarket is investigating a suspected case of corporate espionage by a competitor. The platform allows users to place bets on sports events, weather, and geopolitical conflicts. The company alleges its top rival, Kalshi, used improper methods to steal business information and copycat its products.
Led by its 27-year-old CEO Shayne Coplan, the New York-based prediction platform has compiled a "copycat file," documenting over a dozen suspicious incidents: the launch times and product designs of several Kalshi new offerings were strikingly similar to Polymarket's, with coincidences in release timing being alarmingly abnormal.
Matthew Modabber, head of markets at Polymarket, said in a phone interview that the coincidences were simply too many and too abnormal, suggesting a deliberate and aggressive effort to copy their business.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan speaking at the New York Stock Exchange on November 13 last year
The executive did not disclose further details, but people familiar with the matter revealed the company internally suspects two possibilities: one is a mole planted inside Polymarket; the other is a more bizarre suspicion of surveillance.
In recent months, several employees have suggested that Paradigm, an investor in Kalshi, may have been monitoring Polymarket's Lower Manhattan office from across the street. Paradigm's office in New York's SoHo district faces Polymarket's office, with floor-to-ceiling windows offering a direct view into Polymarket's workspace, potentially even observing employees' computer screens. The street-level below houses trendy clothing stores and the upscale restaurant Balthazar.
Due to surveillance concerns, Polymarket specifically applied dark tinted window film to its office windows this spring. An internal employee stated: "The possibility of being spied on was discussed in company meetings. The final conclusion was that, given Kalshi's past conduct, such clandestine surveillance is entirely plausible."
When asked about the espionage allegations, a Paradigm spokesperson responded: "That claim is laughable." Kalshi spokesperson Jack Such responded: "The related accusations are baseless, bordering on delusional. Polymarket is welcome to spend its energy on self-investigation. Kalshi will continue to diligently improve its products."
Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour speaking at the Semafor World Economy Summit in Washington, D.C., on April 15
Polymarket's investigation focuses on two points: how Kalshi precisely obtained advance knowledge of its new product launches and marketing campaign schedules, and what level of detail they acquired to enable such efficient and comprehensive replication.
Suspicions within the platform have been accumulating over the past year, and an incident at an offline event in February became the catalyst for the current conflict. Polymarket had been preparing a pop-up grocery store event since last November, scheduled to open in Manhattan on February 12: the first 300 in-store customers would receive free groceries. For this, they signed contracts totaling $643,380 for venue, branding, and execution.
Just nine days before Polymarket's opening, Kalshi suddenly launched an identical free grocery marketing campaign at a Westside supermarket in New York, distributing $50 grocery vouchers with the promotional slogan "Free Market," while simultaneously launching prediction markets on topics like monthly egg price increases.
A Polymarket insider claimed the move was clearly intended to divert traffic from their event. Founder Shayne, who grew up in New York, said the event held special significance for the company, and being maliciously hijacked was very disappointing for the team.
Kalshi's head of communications, Elisabeth Diana, denied copying, stating their grocery marketing plan had been in preparation for a long time and they did not obtain the competitor's event timing through an insider. Kalshi spokesperson Such added that both companies' event inspirations came from the New York Mayor's campaign platform promoting grocery subsidies.
Furthermore, since January, Polymarket had been secretly developing a spot perpetual contract trading tool, allowing users to bet on real-time price movements of assets like stocks without holding the underlying asset, originally scheduled for announcement and launch on April 21. However, just one hour before Polymarket's announcement, the tech media outlet *The Information* published an exclusive article citing anonymous sources, revealing Kalshi was about to launch a similar perpetual contract product.
Polymarket's office is located in a fashionable New York neighborhood, directly across the street from Paradigm
According to sources, Polymarket executives were furious about this.
One source said, "It seemed like they knew we would announce that day, which is very suspicious."
Such explained that Kalshi's perpetual product development started in 2024. He believed *The Information* learned about the plan from a social media teaser Kalshi posted on X on April 13. The teaser showed a video of what appeared to be an infinite loop spring toy with the caption "Timeless," which in finance refers to perpetual futures contracts, contracts that never expire.
Polymarket's "copycat file" includes over a dozen sets of screenshots comparing official announcements, social media posts, and product interfaces from both companies. An executive stated these archived cases represent only one-tenth of all similar incidents.
One page of the file records: On June 10, 2025, at 9:01 AM, Polymarket announced on X an hourly crypto price prediction product, garnering nearly 24 million impressions. On the same day at 9:00 AM, the brokerage Webull jointly announced with Kalshi the launch of an identical product. Polymarket's file notes: "Same day?"
But Such countered, stating Kalshi had already launched a similar product before June 10, 2025, and that day was merely its listing on Webull through partnership. He argued it was actually Polymarket that launched later, making it clear who copied whom.
There are also cases of advertising material collisions. On Friday, August 22 last year, Polymarket ran a Meta ad in California for football betting, with the prominent headline "Hey, California"; just one weekend later, Kalshi launched an almost identical targeted ad with the same headline.
Such stated "Hey, California" is generic promotional language, not protected by trademark or copyright. He argued that claiming corporate espionage based solely on an advertising slogan is illogical.
The feud between the two prediction platforms has intensified in 2026. U.S. lawmakers and regulators are tightening oversight of prediction markets, with the industry facing criticism related to insider trading and war gambling. Meanwhile, capital continues to pour heavily into both leading platforms.
According to data from analytics firm PitchBook, Polymarket, founded in 2020, has raised approximately $2 billion to date, with its latest funding round aiming for a valuation of $15 billion. Kalshi, founded in 2018, has raised $2.6 billion, with its latest valuation at $22 billion, double its valuation from December last year.
