Recent Galaxy research shows that, calculated in terms of 2020 US dollar purchasing power, Bitcoin's actual value is approximately $99,848, falling short of the true $100,000 milestone.
This discrepancy does not negate Bitcoin's gains but reveals how inflation quietly rewrites milestones denominated in fiat currency. This difference is highly significant for the current institutionally-driven cycle.
The core impact of inflation is the change in the real value of the US dollar. The purchasing power of the dollar has significantly declined over the past few years; converting the current nominal price to 2020 dollars requires multiplying by 0.8.
This means that $100,000 in 2025 is only worth $80,000 in 2020 terms. To match the purchasing power of $100,000 in 2020, Bitcoin's nominal price would need to be close to $125,000. The peak of this cycle happened to approach this zone, intensifying the debate.
For institutions, real returns are the core evaluation standard. Pension funds and other institutions are not concerned with nominal gains but focus more on returns after adjusting for inflation. This is also a necessary test for Bitcoin's evolution into a macro asset.
Current chaotic CPI data adds further uncertainty. In 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended the release of CPI due to funding interruptions, and different statistical methods yield slightly different results, making the judgment of real value more complex.
Market reactions confirm this value divergence. After its peak in October, Bitcoin fell sharply by 30%. The assets under management of US spot Bitcoin ETFs dropped from a peak of $169.5 billion on October 6th to $120.7 billion on December 4th.
However, on-chain data shows the foundation remains solid. This year, Bitcoin's realized capitalization reached a new all-time high of $1.125 trillion, reflecting a strengthening base of long-term holders.
Future trends need to focus on three directions: first, changes in monetary policy leading to a return of nominal value; second, high inflation rendering new nominal highs hollow numbers, with rising real yields increasing pressure; third, ETF demand accelerating a breakthrough past inflation-adjusted resistance levels.
Citi predicts a base case of $143,000 for Bitcoin in 2026 and an optimistic case of over $189,000, with the core variable remaining ETF fund flows.
In essence, inflation has turned Bitcoin's fiat currency milestones into moving targets. It is somewhat ironic that Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against inflation, yet its symbolic fiat currency milestones are being rewritten by inflation.
The next time an integer threshold is approached, the market should focus not on the number itself, but on the actual purchasing power behind it. This is the key to whether Bitcoin can truly enter a new era.
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