Mizuho Recommends 'Buy on the Dip' Ahead of Lumentum's Earnings Report: Strong InP Demand, Stock Still Has Room to Run Despite 4x Surge

Publicado em 2026-08-05Última atualização em 2026-08-05

Resumo

Mizuho Securities has reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating on Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LITE) ahead of the company's earnings report, with a price target of $1,100.00. The company is expected to release its financial results on August 11, 2026.

Mizuho Securities has reiterated its "Outperform" rating on Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LITE) with a price target of $1,100.00 ahead of the company's earnings release, which is expected on August 11, 2026.

Mizuho stated that Lumentum's stock still has upside potential before it reports its Q4 FY2026 earnings. Citing robust indium phosphide (InP) demand, Mizuho believes there is room for upward revisions to Lumentum's June and September quarter expectations, based on strong outlooks from InP suppliers such as AXTI, Landmark, and SEI. September quarter revenue is forecast to grow more than 35% sequentially.

Mizuho highlighted that Lumentum's performance improvements in EML InP lasers, ramp-up in NPO capacity, and its leadership position in the CW/SiPho space (supplying CW InP lasers to customers) all support the stock's upside. Additionally, Mizuho noted that Lumentum's addressable market exceeds $90 billion, and its industry-leading positions in EML, NPO, UHP lasers for CPO, and the OCS business being advanced in collaboration with Google, Microsoft, and Amazon also serve as upside drivers.

The rating was issued following Mizuho's optical industry conference call and a virtual meeting with Huber+Suhner CEO Urs Ryffel. Since November 2025, Lumentum's stock has surged approximately 4-fold, compared to a 71% gain for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) over the same period. However, the stock has retreated about 27% from its peak, while the SOX index has declined only 5% during the same timeframe. The stock currently trades at $779.95, with a one-year return of 569%, but remains about 28% below its 52-week high of $1,085.68. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears overvalued relative to its fair value estimate and has been placed on the list of most overvalued stocks. Investors seeking in-depth analysis can refer to the full Pro research report, with over 1,400 U.S. stock reports currently available on the platform.

Mizuho recommends investors buy on the dip ahead of the earnings report, expecting strong momentum to continue in the second half of 2026.

In other recent developments, Lumentum Holdings Inc. announced its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index, effective May 18, 2026. The Nasdaq-100 Index comprises the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, and this inclusion is seen as significant. Following the news, Lumentum's stock rose 4.8%. Furthermore, analysis from Rosenblatt Securities indicates that companies like Lumentum in the AI data center optical components sector are expected to face a supply-demand gap persisting until 2030. The analysis predicts significant capacity expansion for components like Electro-Absorption Modulated Lasers (EMLs), which will still struggle to meet market demand.

Meanwhile, SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) surged 6.8% in pre-market trading, staging a significant recovery from earlier losses in the Korean market. A report from Stifel notes that as the June and July earnings season approaches, companies related to AI infrastructure, including the semiconductor sector, continue to face tight supply conditions. The firm expects these companies to continue surpassing earnings expectations and raising guidance. Stifel attributes the recent pullback in the SOX index to a mix of supply-related news and broader macroeconomic factors, characterizing it as a valuation reset rather than a demand issue.

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