Miners' 'Capitulation' Called a Bullish Factor for Bitcoin. Why

RBK-cryptoPublicado em 2025-12-23Última atualização em 2025-12-23

Resumo

RBC Crypto reports that Bitcoin's price drop and increased mining competition have led to record-low profitability for miners, causing a "tactical" decline in hash rate in recent months. According to an analysis by VanEck, historical data since 2014 shows that periods of declining hash rate have often been a bullish signal for Bitcoin's price in the medium term. In 77% of cases where the hash rate fell over a 90-day period, Bitcoin's price saw positive returns over the next 180 days, with an average increase of 72%. This suggests that "miner capitulation may indicate a bottom" for Bitcoin's price. The hash rate peaked at around 1.31 Zh/s on October 24 but dropped to 1.02 Zh/s by December 23, a nearly 25% decline. During this period, Bitcoin's price fell from $110,000 to $87,500, having peaked at $126,200 in early October. Despite low profitability, many mining companies continue operations due to their belief in Bitcoin's future. The report also highlights the role of Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, which have been accumulating Bitcoin as a reserve. Over a 30-day period until mid-December, these companies purchased approximately 42,000 BTC, the largest such acquisition since July-August 2025. However, DAT companies have faced challenges, with median stock prices for US and Canadian firms dropping 43% by December 8, and 70% of DAT stocks expected to be worth less by year-end. Additionally, 85% of tokens launched in 2025 have fallen below their initial offering price.

"RBC-Crypto" does not provide investment advice, the material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.

The fall in the price of Bitcoin and increased competition in the mining sector have created conditions for record low profitability indicators for mining the main cryptocurrency. This, in turn, has led to a "tactical" decrease in the hash rate in recent months, as written in a report by the management company VanEck. Experts, having studied the historical data of Bitcoin and compared the dynamics of the hash rate and the price of Bitcoin, noted a high probability of an increase in the next six months.

A statistical analysis by VanEck since 2014 showed that periods of hash rate decline are often a bullish signal for the price of Bitcoin in the medium term. In periods when the hash rate fell over the past 90 days, the return on Bitcoin was positive in 77% of cases over the next 180 days. And the average price increase was 72%.

Thus, "miner capitulation may indicate that a bottom has been reached" for the price of Bitcoin. VanEck wrote that historically such dynamics is a "bullish signal contrary to popular belief".

The peak of the hash rate indicator, that is, the total power of all devices actively mining Bitcoin, was recorded at around 1.31 Zh/s (zetahash per second) on October 24. Since then, the value has decreased to 1.02 Zh/s by December 23 (a drop of almost 25%). During the same time, the price of Bitcoin fell from $110 thousand to $87.5 thousand, and the price peak was in early October at the level of $126.2 thousand.

As noted in a report by the publication TheMinerMag in early December, at the current prices of Bitcoin (about $87 thousand) and the level of competition worldwide, even the most efficient companies with cheap energy are operating practically at break-even.

And although mining profitability has been low lately, VanEck noted, many companies continue to mine despite the poor economic situation because they "believe in the future of Bitcoin".

Experts also noted the role of so-called DAT companies (Digital asset treasury), which are buying up Bitcoin as a reserve. Over 30 days until mid-December, these companies purchased about 42 thousand BTC during the downturn. This is the largest purchase of Bitcoin by DAT participants since the period from July 16 to August 15, 2025, when DAT participants added 128.1 thousand BTC.

DAT projects are public companies that are engaged in creating and managing a cryptocurrency reserve. They mainly raise funds for the purchase of digital assets by issuing shares or bonds.

Such companies in 2025 became one of the most popular trends in public markets. Their stock prices soared at the start, sometimes by thousands of percent, but the year is ending less successfully than it began.

According to information from Bloomberg, the median drawdown for stocks of public companies from the US and Canada was 43% as of December 8. According to the publication's calculations, most of these companies were unprofitable, and by the end of the year, 70% of DAT project stocks will be worth less than at the beginning.

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Perguntas relacionadas

QAccording to VanEck's analysis, what is the historical correlation between a decline in Bitcoin's hash rate and its future price performance?

AVanEck's statistical analysis since 2014 shows that periods of declining hash rate are often a bullish signal for Bitcoin's price in the medium term. In 77% of cases when the hash rate fell over the past 90 days, Bitcoin's returns were positive over the next 180 days, with an average price increase of 72%.

QWhat does the 'capitulation of miners, as mentioned in the article, potentially indicate for the Bitcoin market?

AThe 'capitulation' of miners, referring to a tactical reduction in hash rate due to low profitability, can indicate that the price of Bitcoin has reached a bottom. Historically, this dynamic has acted as a bullish signal, contrary to popular belief.

QHow much did Bitcoin's hash rate drop from its peak on October 24th to December 23rd, and what was the corresponding change in price?

AThe hash rate peaked at approximately 1.31 Zh/s on October 24th and fell to 1.02 Zh/s by December 23rd, a drop of nearly 25%. During this same period, the price of Bitcoin fell from $110,000 to $87,500. The all-time price peak was in early October at $126,200.

QWhat role do Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies play in the Bitcoin market, according to the report?

ADAT companies are public companies that create and manage cryptocurrency reserves, primarily by raising funds through stock or bond offerings to purchase digital assets like Bitcoin. In mid-December, they were noted for making their largest Bitcoin purchase since mid-2025, acquiring approximately 42,000 BTC during the market downturn.

QWhat was the reported performance of DAT company stocks and newly launched tokens in 2025?

ABy December 8th, the median drawdown for stocks of US and Canadian DAT companies was 43%, with most being unprofitable. It was projected that by year's end, 70% of DAT stocks would be worth less than at the beginning of the year. Furthermore, the price of 85% of tokens launched in 2025 fell below their initial market price.

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