Authored by: Michael Nadeau
Compiled and Edited by: BitpushNews
Whether you like it or not, we believe memecoins are here to stay. This article shares a macro view of the industry and delves into the meme coins we are closely monitoring.
Let's begin.
Why Focus on Meme Coins
Our Methodology
Some people love meme coins, others despise them deeply. We try to step outside this debate and simply observe the market. From our observations, meme coins have taken root. From a "Product-Market Fit (PMF)" perspective, they seem to be the ultimate crypto "game." People love trading, love gambling, love the social attributes, and love the risk-reward博弈 (game). And we believe participants are very aware of what kind of game they are playing.
After witnessing PEPE's success in the Ethereum ecosystem, we caught onto BONK and Solana in late 2023. This led us to research the field more deeply, including on-chain data and additional investments like GIGA, PEPE, and SPX6900. Our goal is to unearth unique properties in holder data that can indicate a token's Staying Power and the conviction of its holders.
Why BONK, PEPE, SPX6900, PENGU, and USELESS?
Liquidity: Each token has ample liquidity and is tradable on major exchanges and retail channels.
Audience Reach: Each token has global audience interest (not limited to niche memes like specific politics).
Leadership / Embedded Culture: Each token is supported by at least one of the following: 1) A highly influential leader/holder community; 2) An established internet meme/culture; or 3) An existing popular brand.
Historical Performance: Each token has experienced multiple massive rallies followed by sharp pullbacks. This price action shows broad market interest and helps distribute the holder structure, laying the foundation for the next expansion.
No Unlocks, No VCs: Only transparent on-chain data.
High Beta: Each token exhibits a high beta coefficient relative to BTC and the L1 assets of its ecosystem. With proper allocation (we target 3-5%), coin selection, and entry points, this can significantly enhance risk-adjusted returns.
Now, let's dive into the on-chain data and see if we can separate the real from the fake.
Total Token Holders
BONK: 985.9K current holders (at an all-time high in holdings). BONK launched in Dec '22, is the largest memecoin in the Solana ecosystem, deeply integrated into various apps and wallets. Note, BONK executed a community-driven airdrop, "seeding" a large number of wallets, which is reflected in the data in the table below.
PENGU: 534.1K holders (down 14% from peak). PENGU launched in Dec '24, represents social interest in the popular brand Pudgy Penguin. The total market cap of the Pudgy Penguin NFT series is currently about $78.5M, while its memecoin market cap is $454M (5.7x the NFT series, down from a peak of $2.7B). We believe the value of the Pudgy Penguin brand (a strong crypto brand that has broken into the mainstream) is likely to continue flowing to this memecoin.
PEPE: 505.7K current holders (down 1.51% from peak). PEPE launched in Apr '23. We believe PEPE is the purest expression of internet meme culture in cryptocurrency (especially Ethereum). It's based on the globally recognized "Pepe the Frog," which has maintained a strong internet presence since the late 2010s.
SPX6900: 113K current holders (down 0.33% from peak). SPX6900 launched in Sep 2023, spawning a fervent internet community led by Murad, with the core ethos of "Flipping the stock market." The brand seems to combine financial satire with a "BTC-like" holder base that is very serious (as shown in the data below). We successfully traded SPX6900 in the last bull run and have been analyzing its community and on-chain data since Aug '24.
USELESS: 38.6K current holders (down 5.2% from peak). USELESS launched in May '25, as a satirical "Anti-utility" memecoin. It attracted a vertical and seemingly loyal community after launching on LetsBONK last year (which took market share from Pump Fun at the time). Its current market cap is $44M with daily liquidity exceeding $10M (at bear market lows), we believe USELESS could present interesting opportunities under the right market conditions.
Holders with Balances Under $100
Conclusion:
BONK, PENGU, and PEPE already have very mature holder bases. SPX6900 shows a more resolute, loyal holder base (albeit smaller).
Holders with Balances Over $1,000
Note, $1,000 wallet categorization: Split by the number of token units held at the token's All-Time High (ATH) price equivalent to $1,000.
Conclusion:
SPX6900 stands out here, as it consistently has since we started tracking this metric.
To better understand the retention of $1,000 holders, we normalized the ATH data for each token, calculating the number of token units required to be a "$1,000 holder" at that time.
Then, we tracked the holdings (number of units) of these wallets over time. This aims to strip out the noise of price fluctuations to more accurately understand holders' willingness to retain.
Here are our findings:
Conclusion:
In terms of "$1,000 holder" retention rate (measured in units to strip out price impact), SPX6900 seems to have separated itself from the pack.
Holders with Balances Over $100,000
$100,000 wallet categorization: Split by the number of token units held at the token's All-Time High (ATH) price equivalent to $100,000.
Retention Rate
Similar to the $1,000 holder data, we categorized $100,000 wallets by their holding units at ATH.
Then, we tracked these wallets, determining the change in the total number of "$100,000 wallets" (by token units) over time.
Here are our findings:
Conclusion:
Again, SPX6900 leads in the retention rate of token holders at the $100,000 level.
Whale Retention Rate
Another way to monitor whale retention is: Count all wallets that have ever held over $100,000 worth of the token, and compare that to the number of wallets that still hold more than 50% of their peak holdings (in units).
Here are our findings:
Momentum & 50-Week Moving Average (WMA)
Relative Strength
When we buy meme coins, we look for entry points where the 14-day RSI is at or near oversold territory (30).
50-Week Moving Average
SPX6900: Trading 64% below its 50 WMA.
BONK: Trading 62% below its 50 WMA.
PENGU: Trading 58% below its 50 WMA.
PEPE: Trading 57% below its 50 WMA.
Drawdown from All-Time High
Given SPX6900's superior on-chain data, its relative resilience compared to the others is not surprising.
Conclusion
Given the industry's attention, we believe it is wise for crypto investors to pay attention to meme coins. We find them highly valuable for monitoring broad risk-on/off sentiment and liquidity conditions in the crypto market.
Not to mention, with appropriate position sizing and entry points, the right asset can provide a "powerful catalyst" for a portfolio.
We successfully captured BONK and SPX6900 in the last bull run (exiting with a small portfolio allocation for 10x+ gains). We will look for similar entry opportunities in the future.
