Mars Daily | Warsh Overtakes Hassett as Top Contender for Next Fed Chair

marsbitPublicado em 2025-12-16Última atualização em 2025-12-16

Resumo

Mars Morning Brief: Key developments include Kevin Warsh surpassing Kevin Hassett as the frontrunner for the next Federal Reserve chair position according to prediction markets, with probabilities shifting significantly. The U.S. Senate banking committee delayed hearings on crypto market structure legislation to next year, dealing a blow to industry hopes for faster regulatory progress. The UK Supreme Court rejected a $13 billion BSV investor lawsuit against exchanges like Binance and Kraken. Nasdaq plans to formally request extending stock trading to 23 hours a day. Former President Trump claimed progress toward a Ukraine peace deal and expressed openness to pardoning convicted Samourai Wallet developer Keonne Rodriguez. Fed officials and the SEC commented on monetary policy and crypto regulation, emphasizing balance between innovation and oversight. Additionally, Solana's Breakpoint 2025 hackathon winners were highlighted, featuring advancements in infrastructure and DeFi.

According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will not hold a markup hearing on market structure legislation defining how federal regulators oversee the crypto industry until next year. Many had hoped for a hearing later this week, but it ultimately did not materialize. A committee spokesperson stated in a Monday declaration, "Chairman Tim Scott and the Senate Banking Committee have made significant progress with Democratic colleagues on this bill," but lawmakers are still negotiating. Although this delay was expected, it is still a blow to the crypto industry. The industry had hoped to at least see a markup hearing, as expectations for a comprehensive new law in 2025 have failed to yield more substantive progress. It is unclear how quickly lawmakers can restart negotiations in the new year. Upon returning from the congressional recess, the top priority will be funding the U.S. government, as the current funding measure expires on January 30. Assuming the government does not face another shutdown, lawmakers will still have limited time to address market structure issues before the midterm elections become the primary focus.

Warsh Overtakes Hassett as Top Contender for Next Fed Chair

On December 16, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh overtook Kevin Hassett to become the top contender for the next Fed Chair. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Warsh being nominated by Trump for Fed Chair rose from 7% to 48%, while the probability for Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, dropped from a high of 85% to 42%. On the prediction market Kalshi, Warsh's nomination probability increased from 10% to 52%, while Hassett's dropped from a high of 81% to 39%. When asked on Friday afternoon if Warsh was the leading candidate for Fed Chair, Trump said, "Yes, I think he is. I think both Kevins are great." Trump added, "And I think there are a few other very good candidates." JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon previously supported Warsh for the next Fed Chair, calling him a "great chair." According to CNBC, citing sources, Kevin Hassett, once seen as the "quasi-candidate" for Fed Chair, has faced skepticism from senior figures who can directly influence former President Trump's decisions. The issue is that while Hassett was initially seen as the strongest candidate to succeed current Chair Powell due to his close ties to Trump, those same close ties are now causing concern. This pressure may explain why candidate interviews, canceled in early December, were rescheduled (at least for Warsh, which occurred last week).

UK Supreme Court Rejects Appeal in $13 Billion BSV Case

According to market news, last week the UK Supreme Court rejected an appeal by BSV investors in a case seeking over $13 billion in damages from major crypto exchanges. The appeal stemmed from losses incurred after the value of BSV tokens continuously fell following their delisting from exchanges like Binance and Kraken in 2019. The latest proceedings and application for permission to appeal were handled by three court judges, who ultimately refused the appeal. The appellant—BSV Claims Limited—claimed that the token's value immediately fell after delisting, and its potential growth was hindered, causing holders to suffer "immediate and ongoing impacts" and losses from "missed growth effects." In July 2024, the UK Competition Appeal Tribunal dismissed the appellant's claim regarding "missed growth effects," rejecting the assumption that BSV would eventually grow to match Bitcoin's value. In May of this year, the appellant attempted to revive this claim but was again rejected.

Nasdaq to Formally Apply for '5X23' Hour Trading

On December 16, foreign media reported that Nasdaq plans to file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday to launch round-the-clock stock trading services. Nasdaq plans to extend trading hours for stocks and exchange-traded products (ETPs) from the current five days a week, 16 hours a day, to 23 hours. Nasdaq's new '5X23' model will be divided into two main trading periods: Day Session: Runs from 4:00 AM to 8:00 PM ET. This session will continue to include pre-market, regular, and after-hours trading periods, with the regular session opening bell (9:30) and closing bell (4:00) remaining. Night Session: Runs from 9:00 PM to 4:00 AM ET. Trades executed between 9:00 PM and midnight during this session will be considered part of the next calendar day's trading. Under the new plan, the trading week will begin at 9:00 PM on Sunday and end at 8:00 PM on Friday after the day session concludes.

Trump: 'Closer Than Ever' to a 'Peace Deal'

On December 16, local time December 15, U.S. President Trump stated that he had "very good conversations" with European leaders that day, many of which concerned the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which they discussed at length, and things "seem to be going well." Trump believes we are now "closer than ever" to a "peace deal" to achieve peace between Russia and Ukraine. Trump also mentioned that he has had multiple conversations with Russian President Putin and has received significant support from European leaders, all of whom want to end the conflict. Trump stated that Ukraine and Russia must reach an agreement, and he believes progress is going well and the talks are effective.

Fed's Williams: Supported Last Week's 25bps Cut, But Next Move Hard to Judge

On December 16, the Fed's Williams said on Monday that the Fed's decision to cut rates last week was correct, but the next move is hard to judge. Williams told reporters at an event in Jersey City, New Jersey: "I very much support the decision we made" to cut the Fed's benchmark rate by 25 basis points. Looking ahead to the policy meeting on January 27-28, he said: "We will wait and gather all the relevant data," and it is currently "too early to tell what the next monetary policy decision should be."

SEC Chair: Crypto Could Be a 'Powerful Financial Surveillance' Tool, But Not at the Cost of Privacy

On December 16, according to The Block, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins stated that he believes there is a path forward that balances national security concerns with personal privacy protection but warned that excessive government involvement could tip the scales too far. On Monday, at the sixth crypto roundtable meeting of the SEC's Crypto Task Force, Atkins cautioned that blockchain is particularly efficient at linking transactions to senders, and if misguided, cryptocurrency could "become the most powerful financial surveillance architecture ever." Atkins said: "Indeed, if the government's instinct is to treat every wallet as a broker, every piece of software as a trading platform, every transaction as a reportable event, and every protocol as a convenient surveillance node, then the government will turn this ecosystem into a financial panopticon." However, Atkins stated there are ways to balance innovation with privacy protection. Atkins said: "I firmly believe that together we can build a framework that ensures technological progress nor financial development comes at the expense of individual liberty."

Trump Says He Will Consider Pardoning Bitcoin App Samourai Developer Keonne Rodriguez

According to Decrypt, U.S. President Trump said he is willing to consider pardoning convicted Samourai Wallet developer Keonne Rodriguez, noting he is aware of the case. When asked about Rodriguez's case by the outlet, Trump said: "I've heard about the case, and I'll look at it." Trump then said to U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi, who was also present: "We'll look into it, Pam." Rodriguez was sentenced last month to five years in federal prison for his role in creating Samourai Wallet, a tool that allows Bitcoin users to ensure transaction privacy without transferring funds to a third party. He is scheduled to report to federal prison this Friday.

US SEC Teaches You How to Custody Crypto Assets

The U.S. SEC issued a bulletin introducing retail investors to the basics of crypto asset custody, including types of crypto wallets, the differences between self-custody and third-party custody, and considerations when choosing, aiming to help investors hold crypto assets safely.

A Quick Look at the 33 Winning Projects from Solana Breakpoint 2025 Hackathon

The fifth Breakpoint conference was held in Abu Dhabi, focusing on the development of the Solana ecosystem and showcasing innovative projects across infrastructure, consumer applications, DeFi, RWA, and other tracks, with the Unruggable hardware wallet winning the grand prize.

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Perguntas relacionadas

QWho has surpassed Kevin Hassett to become the most likely candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair according to prediction markets?

AKevin Warsh has surpassed Kevin Hassett, with his odds rising to 48% on Polymarket and 52% on Kalshi, making him the most probable candidate.

QWhat was the outcome of the BSV investors' £13 billion lawsuit appeal in the UK Supreme Court?

AThe UK Supreme Court dismissed the appeal from BSV investors who were attempting to claim over $13 billion in damages from major crypto exchanges for delisting the BSV token.

QWhat new trading hours model is Nasdaq applying for with the SEC?

ANasdaq is applying for a '5X23' model, which would extend stock and ETP trading to 23 hours a day, divided into a Day Session (4:00 AM to 8:00 PM ET) and an Overnight Session (9:00 PM to 4:00 AM ET).

QWhat did SEC Chairman Paul Atkins warn could happen if the government over-regulates cryptocurrency?

ASEC Chairman Paul Atkins warned that if the government over-regulates by treating every wallet as a broker and every transaction as a reportable event, it could turn the crypto ecosystem into the most powerful financial surveillance architecture ever, a 'financial panopticon'.

QWhich project won the grand prize at the Solana Breakpoint 2025 hackathon?

AThe Unruggable hardware wallet won the grand prize at the Solana Breakpoint 2025 hackathon.

Leituras Relacionadas

Paradigm's New Playbook: Crypto in One Hand, AI and Robotics in the Other

Title: Paradigm's New Strategy: Crypto in One Hand, AI and Robotics in the Other On July 8, 2026, top-tier venture capital firm Paradigm announced the successful $12 billion close of its fourth fund, marking a strategic evolution beyond its pure-play crypto roots. While remaining committed to cryptocurrency, the firm is now formally extending its investment focus to include artificial intelligence, robotics, and other frontier technologies. This shift was foreshadowed by a subtle but significant change to its official social media description earlier in March, from "A research-driven crypto investment firm" to a broader "We build and invest in the companies and ideas shaping the frontier." The move is driven by the firm's recognition of transformative technological waves beyond crypto, particularly in AI and robotics, and a response to the shifting capital allocation landscape. Despite significant AI sector fundraising, Paradigm emphasizes its commitment remains grounded in deep technical rigor. A key intersection for Paradigm lies in AI Agents, where decentralized blockchain networks and stablecoins are seen as a natural financial infrastructure for autonomous digital operations. The firm is active in promoting open-source, decentralized AI (e.g., investing in Nous Research) and building agent-friendly blockchains (e.g., incubating Tempo). It is also developing tools like EVMbench (with OpenAI) and the Centaur AI Agent platform. Within its crypto stronghold, Paradigm will continue focusing on core infrastructure areas. These include derivatives and new liquidity layers (e.g., Hyperliquid), prediction markets (with plans for a proprietary trading terminal), and developer tools (continuing development of Reth and Foundry). In summary, Paradigm's expansion reflects a broader realignment in venture capital, where the intense capital concentration in AI and the search for exponential growth compel even crypto-native funds to broaden their narratives. However, this does not signify an abandonment of crypto; instead, the focus is sharpening on real-world financial applications like stablecoins, RWA, on-chain derivatives, prediction markets, and the convergence of Crypto and AI Agents.

Foresight NewsHá 8m

Paradigm's New Playbook: Crypto in One Hand, AI and Robotics in the Other

Foresight NewsHá 8m

The Preferred Stock Domino Effect: Strive Incurs a 7.08 Million Dollar Loss, Strategic Risk Spreading in a Chain Reaction

"Priority Stock Domino Effect": Strive's $7.08 Million Loss Reveals Chain-Reaction Risk in Bitcoin Reserve Sector Bitcoin reserve company-issued preferred shares are no longer just yield assets but a credit test for balance sheet health. While focus remains on Strategy, Strive, the 7th largest public Bitcoin holder, disclosed a tangible spillover effect: its holding of Strategy's (STRC) preferred shares lost $7.08 million in fair value over eight days, despite no change in share count. This exposes a clear cross-company risk transmission channel within the sector. Strive's filing shows its 505,000 STRC shares fell from ~$88.59 to ~$74.57 per share. While Strive remains solvent with 19,864 BTC and $141.7M cash, the loss signals that preferred stock risks can spread via inter-company holdings, shifting their perception from stable income to credit-like, high-risk assets dependent on issuer liquidity and dividend sustainability. In response, Strategy unveiled a "Digital Credit Capital Framework," raising STRC's annual dividend to 12%, mandating a 12-month cash reserve for dividends, and authorizing up to $1B each for STRC/common stock buybacks and a $1.25B Bitcoin sale plan to bolster reserves. This marks a shift to active credit risk management, formally incorporating potential Bitcoin sales to stabilize its capital structure. Third-party valuation tools, like Farside's calculator estimating STRC's net present value at ~$49.89, highlight that pricing now hinges critically on perpetual dividend sustainability and the issuer's ability to pay amid market volatility. Bitcoin's price (~$62k) remains below Strategy's average cost basis ($75,651), intensifying focus on reserve policies. The market faces two scenarios: 1) Contained risk, where STRC's discount narrows and stress is limited to Strategy; or 2) Systemic risk, where deep STRC discounts persist, dividend hikes fail, Bitcoin sales commence, and pressure spreads to other issuers like Strive's SATA shares. Key indicators to watch are STRC/SATA discount levels, dividend coverage credibility, equity issuance rates, and any actual Bitcoin divestment. Strive's future reports will be crucial in determining if its loss is an isolated event or the first sign of sector-wide credit risk contagion via preferred shares.

marsbitHá 12m

The Preferred Stock Domino Effect: Strive Incurs a 7.08 Million Dollar Loss, Strategic Risk Spreading in a Chain Reaction

marsbitHá 12m

Are the Frantic Acquisitions of Crypto Companies by Giants Good or Bad?

In a bear market, giants are actively acquiring crypto companies. Recent months have seen at least five major deals: Samsung Securities bought a 2% stake in Upbit operator Dunamu; Robinhood acquired WonderFi for $180 million to enter the Canadian market; Figure purchased Kiavi for $717 million to expand into on-chain real estate credit; Franklin Templeton bought 250Digital to launch Franklin Crypto; and Blockworks acquired data platform Messari at a steep discount—over 90% less than its 2022 $300 million valuation. These moves highlight a strategic shift. Cash-rich giants are consolidating resources at low cost, targeting companies with established compliance frameworks to navigate tightening global regulations. Acquisitions like WonderFi and the Upbit stake provide immediate market access and licensed user bases. Figure's deal signals real-world asset (RWA) tokenization moving from concept to large-scale implementation, with Kiavi's $7+ billion annual transaction volume being integrated into on-chain capital markets. Franklin Crypto's launch targets institutional investors like pension funds, offering them tailored, compliant crypto strategies. For these strategic players, bear markets present an ideal entry point: valuations are depressed, speculative noise is minimized, and they can acquire robust technology and compliance infrastructure at a fraction of the cost. This acquisition wave marks a transitional phase for crypto—from a wild frontier toward an institutional, regulated financial system. Giants are positioning themselves to capture future growth when macroeconomic conditions and liquidity improve, leaving latecomers behind.

marsbitHá 1h

Are the Frantic Acquisitions of Crypto Companies by Giants Good or Bad?

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