India’s $5T crypto volume vs. policy silence: Why Budget 2026 is a ‘make or break’ moment

ambcryptoPublicado em 2026-01-22Última atualização em 2026-01-22

Resumo

India, a $4+ trillion economy with an estimated 100 million crypto users, remains in policy limbo regarding digital assets. While cryptocurrency trading is legal, it is heavily taxed (30% on profits and 1% TDS) and monitored, yet lacks a clear regulatory framework. This uncertainty has led to a significant portion of trading activity moving offshore, with recent estimates showing Indian users generated nearly $5 trillion in volume on foreign exchanges between October 2024 and October 2025. Experts warn that continued hesitation risks capital flight and undermines India’s potential to lead in the emerging digital asset economy, making the 2026 budget a critical turning point.

Cryptocurrencies are no longer just a debate. Governments have gone from thinking of whether digital assets belong in the financial system to lining up plans for execution and usage. The market, too, for its part, has matured alongside it all.

India, however (a $4+ trillion economy), remains paused in an in-between space. The issue now is what the country’s continued hesitation means... at a time when other major economies have already gained a competitive edge.

No policy clarity? That’s okay!

India has an estimated 100 million crypto users, making it one of the largest (and fastest-growing) user bases globally. Trading crypto is legal, heavily taxed (flat 30% on profits, with 1% TDS), and closely monitored.

However, it still exists outside a coherent policy vision for what role digital assets are meant to play.

This has created a peculiar half-position.

The state benefits from participation through taxation, but stops short of formally recognizing crypto as part of the architecture. As a result, the ecosystem has grown in volume and users, but without the certainty that stakeholders treasure.

As Abhay Agarwal, Founder and CEO of GetBit, told AMBCrypto,

“...Changes would keep capital in India... and give India a great opportunity to take on the role of a thoughtful and responsible leader of the emerging digital asset economy...”

Indecision is expensive

In India’s case, the absence of a defined crypto framework has redirected participation.

Trading activity moved offshore, beyond domestic oversight and policy reach. Recent estimates say that Indian users generated close to ₹5 lakh crore (approx. $5 trillion) in trading volume on offshore crypto exchanges between October 2024 and October 2025.

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the estimated number of crypto users in India according to the article?

AIndia has an estimated 100 million crypto users.

QWhat is the current tax rate on cryptocurrency trading profits in India?

AThere is a flat 30% tax on crypto trading profits, along with a 1% TDS (Tax Deducted at Source).

QWhy is the 2026 Budget described as a 'make or break' moment for India's crypto market?

AIt is a 'make or break' moment because India's continued policy hesitation and lack of a clear framework is causing significant trading activity and capital to move offshore, and the 2026 Budget represents a critical opportunity to establish regulatory clarity and retain its competitive edge.

QHow much trading volume did Indian users generate on offshore exchanges between October 2024 and October 2025?

AIndian users generated close to ₹5 lakh crore (approximately $5 trillion) in trading volume on offshore crypto exchanges during that period.

QWhat is the main consequence of India's lack of a defined crypto policy framework, as stated in the article?

AThe main consequence is that trading activity has moved offshore, beyond domestic oversight and policy reach, redirecting participation and capital away from the country.

Leituras Relacionadas

Has Bitcoin Bottomed, or Is a 'Shakeout' Approaching? What's the Situation with XRP?

Cryptocurrency analytics platform Santiment shared key insights on Bitcoin and altcoin markets, highlighting significant signals from on-chain data. Analysis shows Bitcoin's 365-day MVRV ratio has fallen to -26%, indicating substantial losses for long-term holders, a level historically associated with market bottom formations and long-term buying opportunities. While short-term MVRV is near breakeven, suggesting no clear directional signal, the annual perspective points to a bottom before bullish cycles. On-chain data reveals divergent behavior: large wallets (10-10,000 BTC) have been accumulating, adding ~18,500 BTC in 10 days, while smaller retail investors continue buying dips. Analysts caution that high retail demand can sometimes create a risk of a final market shakeout or correction. The altcoin market shows a mixed picture. Ethereum's 365-day MVRV is around -33%, but recent monthly gains combined with overly optimistic social sentiment pose a short-term correction risk. XRP is in oversold territory with 30-day and 365-day MVRVs at -57.5% and -45.5% respectively, signaling potential for a strong mid-to-long term rebound. Social activity and optimism are rising for Solana, while investor sentiment remains calmer towards Cardano. Future direction for Bitcoin and altcoins depends not only on on-chain metrics but also on macroeconomic and regulatory developments. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and upcoming policy rulings are increasing market volatility expectations, while uncertainty around the U.S. Congressional clarity process continues to pressure pricing. *This is not investment advice.

cryptonews.ruHá 32m

Has Bitcoin Bottomed, or Is a 'Shakeout' Approaching? What's the Situation with XRP?

cryptonews.ruHá 32m

Bank of Korea Reveals Results of Tokenized Deposit Testing

The Bank of Korea has announced the results of its pilot test for tokenized deposits. Involving 28 central banks and international financial organizations, the project saw participation from major South Korean banks including KB Kookmin Bank, NH NongHyup Bank, Shinhan Bank, Woori Bank, and Hana Bank. Transactions, from payment orders to final settlement, were completed in real time, averaging just 80 seconds. The test involved 30 transactions across 17 different scenarios—such as corporate and interbank transfers—and was conducted in six currencies, including the Korean won, US dollar, and euro, with a total transaction value reaching approximately $995,000. The central bank reported that the platform operated stably throughout, despite being only partially connected to the existing banking infrastructure. Settlements using tokenized deposits were executed seamlessly, quickly, and transparently. An internal transfer of 20 million won (about $13,890) between NH NongHyup Bank and Shinhan Bank was also successfully processed via the Project Agora platform, which involved connecting to the Bank of Korea's CBDC test platform, Project Hangang. Additionally, KB Kookmin Bank and Japan's MUFG Bank tested cross-border payments using these deposit tokens—digital certificates issued by commercial banks within the pilot, not directly by the central bank. The Bank of Korea plans to continue testing payments with tokenized deposits. This follows last year's pledge by South Korean authorities to tighten regulations for won-based stablecoins, which will require approval from both the central bank and the Financial Services Commission.

cryptonews.ruHá 2h

Bank of Korea Reveals Results of Tokenized Deposit Testing

cryptonews.ruHá 2h

Trading

Spot
活动图片