Written by: Mamengniu, Deep Tide TechFlow
Gold: From "Epic Crash" to "Epic Rebound"
Spot gold closed at $4,826 per ounce today, surging 3.56% in a single day.
This is a textbook "V-shaped reversal." Last Friday, gold experienced its most brutal single-day plunge since 1980, plummeting from a historical high of $5,600 to around $4,400, a drop of over 10%. Silver fared even worse, plunging 28% in a single day, marking its largest decline in over 40 years.
The trigger for the crash was, of course, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair.
Who is Warsh? A former Federal Reserve Governor, a typical hawk who advocates for tightening monetary policy. The market's logic chain was: Warsh takes office → interest rates remain high or even increase → the dollar strengthens → gold loses its appeal.
But what does today's rebound indicate? The market is repricing.
Investors realized two things:
- Warsh's nomination does not mean immediate tightening. He won't take office until May at the earliest; panic selling now might be excessive.
- Gold's "de-dollarization narrative" remains unchanged. Central banks have been frantically hoarding gold over the past three years, not because of Fed easing, but due to long-term distrust in the dollar credit system. Trump's interference with Fed independence has instead intensified this concern.
From a technical perspective, last Friday's plunge triggered massive stop-losses and margin calls (CME raised gold futures margins from 6% to 8%, and silver from 11% to 15%). This mechanical selling exacerbated the decline but also cleared out leveraged泡沫, creating conditions for a rebound.
Today's rebound is essentially a "overreaction repair." Gold's long-term logic still holds: geopolitical uncertainty, long-term dollar depreciation pressure, and global de-dollarization trends. JPMorgan reiterated today: gold target price of $6,300 by the end of 2026. Deutsche Bank also maintains a $6,000 target.
In the short term, gold may oscillate in the $4,500-$5,000 range, awaiting clear signals from the Fed meeting at the end of February.
Bitcoin: Struggling in the $78,000 "Quagmire"
Bitcoin is currently priced at $78,700, up 2% in 24 hours, but down over 10% for the week.
Bitcoin fell below $75,000 over the weekend, hitting a near two-month low. Although it rebounded slightly today, it is still overall in a "bleeding state."
Why the decline?
- Deteriorating macro environment. The collapse in risk sentiment triggered by gold's暴跌 spilled over to all risk assets. Although often called "digital gold," Bitcoin behaves more like a high-beta tech stock in times of panic.
- Leverage liquidations. In the thin weekend liquidity, over $500 million in long positions were liquidated. Low market depth means that even small selling pressure can break through key support levels, triggering cascading liquidations.
- Lack of new catalysts. Trump's promised "strategic Bitcoin reserves" have yet to see substantial progress. The market is watching: is this real action or pre-election promises?
Ethereum is weaker, currently at $2,340, down 19% for the week. The ETH/BTC ratio fell to 0.030, a multi-year low. The困境 of the Ethereum ecosystem has not improved; unless a killer app emerges, its weakness relative to Bitcoin will be difficult to reverse.
Altcoins are wailing across the board. Except for a few projects with real revenue (like Hyperliquid), most altcoins are in "survival mode." The market's "wealth gap" is extreme: funds are only paying for Bitcoin and a very few quality assets.
Bitcoin's short-term support is at $75,000; if broken, the next stop is $70,000. Resistance above is in the $82,000-$85,000 range.
U.S. Stocks: Rebounding from Panic, but the Dance on the Tightrope Has Just Begun
February 3 (Monday) U.S. three major indices all closed higher
- Dow: 49,407 points (+1.05%, +515 points)
- S&P 500: 6,976 points (+0.54%)
- Nasdaq: 23,592 points (+0.56%)
This is a typical "panic repair rebound." Last Friday, gold's 11% crash and silver's 28% plunge triggered panic selling; today, the market rebounded strongly after confirming "the world is not ending."
Three supporting forces:
Manufacturing data unexpectedly strengthened. The U.S. January ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6, far exceeding expectations of 48.3, returning to expansion territory for the first time in a year. This gave the market confidence that "the economy is not that fragile."
AI infrastructure stocks led gains. Apple rose 4.1%, Micron Technology rose 5.5%, SanDisk surged 15.4%. The strength in memory chip stocks reflects continued optimism about AI infrastructure demand. Although Nvidia fell 2.9% on news of the "shelving of a planned $100 billion investment in OpenAI," the overall AI narrative is not broken.
Transportation stocks hit record highs. The Dow Jones Transportation Average rose about 2%, United Airlines and Delta Air Lines rose 4-5%, FedEx hit an all-time high since its 1978 IPO. Strength in transportation stocks is usually a leading indicator of accelerating economic activity.
But the cracks within the market are clearly visible:
Disney plummeted 7%, its report showed profit decline and rising costs. The impact of slowing consumption on the entertainment industry is beginning to show.
Strategy fell 6.7%, reflecting the continued weakness in cryptocurrencies.
More critically, the non-farm payrolls report originally scheduled for February 6 was postponed. This rare situation means the market will "fly blind" for longer—lacking key data, the uncertainty about whether the Fed will cut rates in March (current probability about 40-50%) increases.
The Core Market Contradiction: The Fed's Independence Crisis
The recent剧烈 volatility in all assets stems from the same question: Can the Fed remain independent?
Trump's nomination of Warsh as Fed Chair is itself a strong political signal. Warsh is an old friend of Trump's and is seen as more likely to follow White House orders. This breaks the Fed's traditional image of "political neutrality."
The market is worried about two extreme scenarios:
- Scenario A: Warsh is truly hawkish to the end. Rates remain high for a long time, the dollar strengthens, gold and Bitcoin continue to be under pressure, but U.S. stocks fall as corporate profits are eroded by high rates. This is a "lose-lose" situation.
- Scenario B: Warsh becomes "Trump's tool". Forced to cut rates under political pressure,配合 fiscal expansion. Short-term risk asset狂欢, but long-term dollar credit collapse, inflation失控. This is "slow poison."
In either scenario, the Fed's credibility will be damaged. This is the real reason for market panic.
Gold's rebound today is essentially betting on "Scenario B."
Weakened Fed independence, long-term decline in dollar credit, enhances gold's value as the "ultimate currency."
Bitcoin's continued weakness is because it is "unappealing either way" in this narrative: if the Fed is truly hawkish, tightening liquidity is unfavorable for risk assets; if the Fed becomes a political tool, Bitcoin's "decentralization" narrative seems ironic—if even the Fed can't maintain independence, what's the talk about对抗 "fiat currency hegemony"?
Key Events This Week: Data Determines Direction
February 4 (Tuesday): U.S. ADP Employment Data, ISM Services PMI
February 5 (Wednesday): U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
February 6 (Thursday): Non-Farm Payrolls Report, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The Non-Farm Payrolls report is the most important data this week.
If the data is strong (new jobs 250k+), the market will interpret it as "no reason for the Fed to cut rates," the dollar strengthens, gold and Bitcoin face short-term pressure.
If the data is weak (new jobs below 150k), the market will bet on "the Fed being forced to cut rates," risk assets rebound, gold continues to rise.
Current market consensus: No rate cut in February, possibility for March rises to around 40%.
