After breaking through the $78K level, Bitcoin could potentially reach the range of $84–90K in September under a favorable scenario. A return to $100K also cannot be ruled out, but this would require sustained capital inflows and softer expectations regarding US monetary policy. This was explained to Izvestia on August 21 by Kirill Komalenkov, Director of Strategic Communications at Bitbanker.
Author quote
"The break of the $78K mark is an important technical signal: Bitcoin has returned to late May levels and has gained about 20% in a week, effectively exiting a multi-week range. The initial market impulse was given by the US Treasury's policy: the decision to at least double the volume of long-term Treasury buyback operations was perceived by the market as a factor reducing pressure from yields and providing additional liquidity for risk assets," he said.
Additional support is provided by institutional money. According to the expert, on August 19, US spot Bitcoin ETFs received a net inflow of $517 million—the highest in over three months, with $285 million going to BlackRock's fund.
The regulatory backdrop also became noticeably more positive after a meeting of cryptocurrency industry representatives at the White House and a new call from US President Donald Trump to advance the Clarity Act. The law is intended to reduce legal uncertainty for the digital asset market.
Simultaneously, the sharp price increase was accelerated by the closing of short positions. As Komalenkov noted, over two days, one of the largest asset price surges occurred due to forced liquidation of traders' short positions by exchanges in the entire history of the crypto market. Therefore, part of the current movement is not fundamental but mechanical in nature.
The next significant resistance zone is around $78–82K. According to on-chain data, a large volume of coins purchased earlier is concentrated there. This means that some holders may use the price recovery to exit at breakeven or lock in profits.
Author quote
"If Bitcoin manages to pass this area and consolidate above $82K, the next target becomes $84–85K, after which, technically, space opens up for a move towards $90K," the expert explained.
Under a favorable scenario, the $78–82K range could be tested in the coming days or one to two weeks, and the $84–90K area within September. A return to $100K also cannot be ruled out, but for this, a single sharp price surge is not enough: sustained capital inflows and softer expectations regarding US monetary policy would be required.
After the liquidation of the main mass of short positions, continued rallying will require new real demand, primarily through the spot market and ETFs. Pressure on Bitcoin could return due to "hawkish" rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve, rising yields and the dollar, a new spike in oil prices due to the situation around Iran, as well as sales by long-term holders. Over the past month, the volume of Bitcoin in their hands has decreased by approximately 356 thousand coins.
Author quote
"Therefore, the key question now is not so much about overcoming $76K itself, but about the ability to hold this level: a return below $74–75K increases the likelihood of a correction to $72–70K, and losing the zone around $69K would already cast doubt on the entire current breakout and reopen the path to $66–63K," concluded Komalenkov.
On June 16, Deputy Minister of Finance Ivan Chebeskov stated that non-qualified investors in Russia will soon be able to legally purchase Bitcoin, Ethereum, and popular stablecoins. He also clarified that for 'non-qualified' investors, a limit of 300,000 rubles per year through one intermediary has been proposed.
end-content
