Dialogue with Wang Qiao: Currently, Crypto Tokens Don't Attract Me Much, Heavily Invested in Google in 2026

marsbitPublicado em 2026-01-20Última atualização em 2026-01-20

Resumo

In a podcast interview, Qiao Wang discusses his investment strategy and views on AI in 2026. He expresses caution about the current optimistic market sentiment, holding 40% of his portfolio in cash. His remaining investments are split 50/50 between stocks and Bitcoin, with minimal exposure to other crypto tokens. His largest stock holdings are Google and Tencent, citing their strong fundamentals and undervaluation. He also sees potential in AI-driven biotech. Wang highlights the breakthrough capabilities of Claude Opus 4.5, noting its ability to execute complex coding tasks from simple natural language prompts, blurring the line between chatbots and coding assistants. He believes AI is dramatically boosting startup productivity, potentially leading to one or two-person unicorn companies. While software moats are weakening, he argues that giants like Google and Adobe retain strong enterprise-level defenses. He advises everyone to learn to "code" using AI automation tools to optimize personal workflows, as these technologies will significantly amplify the productivity of efficient individuals. For health, he emphasizes the irreplaceable basics: diet, sleep, and exercise, avoiding extreme optimization due to the negative effects of stress.

Compiled & Edited by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Guest: Qiao Wang

Host: Jason Yano

Podcast Source: Empire

Original Title: Claude Opus 4.5’s Breakout Moment & Investing in 2026 with Qiao Wang

Broadcast Date: January 12, 2026

Key Points Summary

This week, Qiao Wang joined the show to discuss how artificial intelligence is redefining what it means to be an investor in 2026. We delved into Claude Opus 4.5's breakthrough moment, why Qiao chose to invest in Google's stock, how to construct an investment portfolio for 2026, how to allocate time wisely in the age of AI, and other topics.

Highlights of Key Insights

  • Market sentiment is overly optimistic right now.
  • "About 40% of my portfolio is in cash."
  • Crypto tokens are not very attractive, but there are always opportunities in the market; focus on analyzing assets individually rather than just looking at the overall asset class.
  • The allocation between stocks and Bitcoin is roughly 50/50.
  • My largest investment is Google; I also hold Tencent stock, which is an excellent company.
  • One area currently overlooked by the market is AI-driven biotechnology; the potential of AI in biotech is enormous.
  • By 2026, we might see some unicorn startups with just one or two people.
  • Some of the most successful AI startups are not companies like ChatGPT or OpenAI, but rather small businesses leveraging AI.
  • The nature of a company's moat hasn't changed, but moats in the software sector are indeed weakening rapidly.
  • Code itself is no longer the bottleneck; the key is designing the right "prompt".
  • Gemini is undervalued by at least two orders of magnitude. "I would be willing to pay $2000 per month for Gemini."
  • I think Adobe could be this year's Google because its current valuation is very cheap, and the market's perception of it is somewhat similar to how Google was viewed back then.
  • Everyone should learn to code, and they must; people can use automation tools to optimize certain aspects of their lives and work.
  • AI tools will make those who are already efficient and capable even more efficient and smarter.
  • Regarding health, the most important factors are still the three basics: diet, sleep, and exercise.

Qiao's 2026 Investment Portfolio

Yano: About a month ago, you mentioned the current state of the market and expressed some concern. You also brought up the dot-com bubble era, like 1996, where people predicted the market was about to peak, but it kept rising for another three years. Also, I saw one of your tweets discussing forward P/E ratios and their relationship to returns over the next decade. You made some counterarguments, but you ended by saying: "I'm still scared." I'm curious, what's your current view on the market?

Qiao: I'm scared because market sentiment is overly optimistic right now. While I can't say everyone is, you can see on social media many people flaunting their investment gains, especially with the market volatility last week; this sentiment is very evident. Quantitatively, market valuations are near historical highs. Of course, some argue that corporate profitability is higher now, competitive advantages are stronger, the economic structure is more robust, and monetary easing is boosting the market, making current valuations justified. But regardless, we cannot deny that market valuations are at historical highs. Therefore, I am not fully invested in risk assets. In fact, about 40% of my portfolio is in cash. Even if the market continues to rise, I might miss out on some gains, but at least I can sleep more soundly.

Yano: I listened to Druckenmiller's interview; he said: "In my 50 years of investing, this is the most difficult time to predict market direction." If even Druckenmiller can't predict it, how can we ordinary investors possibly do it?

Qiao: This is also why I focus more on individual stock selection. If you look at the overall market, valuations are indeed high, but if you research individual companies one by one, you can sometimes find very attractive investment opportunities. This way, even if the overall market declines, your fear will be reduced. During the 2000 dot-com bubble, while tech stocks performed poorly over the next decade, small-cap and value stocks performed well, with an average annual growth rate of 10%. I think this is the best time for stock pickers.

Yano: What are your thoughts on investing in stocks versus crypto tokens now?

Qiao: Currently, I think crypto tokens are not very attractive, but there are always opportunities in the market, like in 2022. Many investable opportunities emerged then. So now, I still focus on analyzing assets individually rather than just looking at the overall asset class. From a macro perspective, there are hardly any particularly attractive assets right now, except for the US dollar. But by analyzing assets individually, you might find some opportunities. As for cryptocurrency, I still hold some Bitcoin and a small number of tokens, but the overall proportion is very small.

Yano: If we try to break down your portfolio, 40% is cash. Of the remaining 60%, how much is in stocks versus cryptocurrency? And within crypto, what's the split between Bitcoin and other crypto assets?

Qiao: Between stocks and Bitcoin, it's roughly 50/50. I still hold a significant amount of Bitcoin, but this isn't my ideal portfolio because if I sell Bitcoin, the tax implications are high. As for crypto tokens, the proportion is very small, less than 1%.

Yano: So which stocks do you currently hold?

Qiao: My largest investment is Google; I also hold Tencent stock. Tencent is an excellent company; although its business is relatively low-key, its fundamentals are very solid.

Yano: Do you think Tencent is better than Alibaba?

Qiao: Currently, yes. Alibaba has more advantages in the AI field, but its retail business faces very fierce competition. I also hold some Amazon stock. I felt last year's market sentiment was very negative towards Amazon because all the tech giants' stocks rose, only Amazon was weak. Also, I am very optimistic about Amazon's布局 in robotics. These investments of mine are long-term, with a ten-year horizon.

Yano: Amazon is indeed a leader in robotics technology. They might become the first large company to have more robot employees than human ones.

Qiao: Over the past five years, Amazon's number of human employees has remained stable, but the number of robot employees has grown by 20% to 30%. They have significantly improved their profit margins in recent years, even though revenue growth hasn't been high.

Yano: What about the healthcare sector, like Eli Lilly or other companies?

Qiao: I hold some Eli Lilly stock, but it's a short-term trade, not a long-term investment, because my understanding of the pharmaceutical industry is limited. I don't know what will happen in ten years; I know I might still be using Amazon in ten years, but there are too many competitors in pharma. Although Eli Lilly has strong patent barriers, there are also many cheap and effective gray market Chinese peptides that compete directly with Eli Lilly. I think one area currently overlooked by the market is AI-driven biotechnology. While everyone is focused on robots, drones, and AI chatbots, I believe the potential of AI in biotechnology is enormous.

Yano: What are your thoughts on the automotive and fintech sectors? Do you hold Tesla or Rivian stock?

Qiao: No, Tesla's valuation is too high, and I don't know enough about Rivian yet.

Yano: What about fintech? Like Robinhood and Coinbase?

Qiao: From a valuation perspective, I think Coinbase is more attractive, but neither company is a particularly outstanding investment. I hold Coinbase stock, while Robinhood's valuation is too high.

Yano: Do you think someone in the West will develop a super app like WeChat?

Qiao: You mean a super app that integrates messaging, payments, social features, etc., like WeChat? I think in finance, there is already a trend, like Robinhood. But for a super app that comprehensively covers all aspects of life like WeChat, I don't see that possibility yet.

Claude Opus 4.5's Breakout Moment

Yano: I want to talk about Claude and Opus 4.5. I think the best entry point is to mention your "holy shit, this is over" moment on Twitter. Over the past few years, there have been a few such moments that gave me the same feeling: one was the release of ChatGPT, another was the first reasoning model, and then Tesla's FSD V13 (Full Self-Driving). Why did you feel Opus 4.5 was a 'holy shit' moment?

Qiao: I can't explain what happened behind the scenes, but I can tell you my experience as a user. The last time I wrote code was maybe a year ago, but seriously writing code was three years ago. From 2010 to 2017, before entering crypto, I worked in quantitative trading, writing code every day, from very low-level C++ to higher-level Python data science code. This was my field for seven years; I also wrote some front-end and back-end code. But since leaving Messari, I haven't written code seriously, only doing some personal projects recently, spending some time at the end of each year. What's different about Opus 4.5 is that previously you could quickly put together a demo, but the last 5% was always hard to get the AI to complete fully; you still needed a good engineer to handle details like errors and edge cases. With Opus 4.5, I just tell it in simple English what I want to do, provide a very clear specification, and as long as the specification is clear and comprehensive, it can get it right the first time. Claude and Opus might be going through a hype cycle on Twitter because I have engineer friends telling me OpenAI's latest GPT-5 Pro is almost as good as Claude.

Yano: I've used both, but actually Opus was the first tool that made me switch from ChatGPT. For me, ChatGPT's memory feature made me so reliant on it that I thought I might use it forever because it knows everything about me, but now Opus 4.5 is even better for me. There's a new way of working now; I'm not sure whether to classify it as [code assistant] or chatbot because the line between the two is blurring. For example, I just used Opus 4.5 to complete a task. We have an eight-person sales team at Blockworks. Normally, we need to decide which accounts should be assigned to whom for sales and prioritize accounts, like Tier 1, Tier 2, etc. Each salesperson has their own judgment, e.g., someone handles 10 Tier 1, 30 Tier 2, and 100 Tier 3 accounts. This allocation work is often complex. So, I gave this problem to Claude and had it integrate relevant information. I told it that if a token's FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) exceeds $1 billion, that account gets extra priority; if the project corresponding to the token is a listed company, even better. Claude pulled relevant information from multiple data sources like CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap, ranked these accounts. Then, it analyzed the transaction history of each salesperson on our team with Blockworks over the past eight years, understood the types of products we sell, and assigned accounts to the right person based on the likelihood of each salesperson closing a deal with those accounts.

Qiao: I realized this during the holidays too, the boundary between general chatbots and traditional coding is gradually blurring. When you converse with a general chatbot, it often generates code snippets on the fly based on your needs. And now, when you need to write code, you don't even have to write the code yourself; you can just express your needs in simple natural language to achieve it. This is causing the functions of code assistants and general chatbots to gradually merge.

Yano: Exactly. So why don't you just use Replit or Lovelace for your Vibe code work? Why choose Claude?

Qiao: I think they target different user groups. I haven't tried the latest version of Lovelace, but I get the sense Lovelace is more suitable for users who want to quickly build a nice demo or simple application; they perform well in front-end development, although I haven't actually used it. So I started with Cursor paired with Opus 4.5, and later tried Claude with Opus 4.5. Honestly, in terms of productivity boost, I didn't feel a significant difference. For me, their performance is similar, but this is just my personal experience.

How is AI Affecting Startups?

Yano: You've witnessed the growth of thousands of crypto startups. How is AI impacting these companies now?

Qiao: AI's impact on startups is very significant, and this change has been particularly noticeable in the last three years. Basically, I ask in every panel, especially every startup's technical co-founder, how much has your productivity improved since ChatGPT's release in 2022? The answer is almost always higher than the last time. This trend is very consistent. The most recent panel's answer was that their productivity improved by about 3 to 4 times. I think this impact is more pronounced in early-stage startups, while the impact on later-stage large companies is relatively smaller, because one limitation of code assistants is their "context window." For example, suppose Claude can handle one million tokens. This means it can very efficiently help you start a new project, and the effect is good. But if you ask Claude to modify Google's entire codebase, that's almost impossible, right? So these tools are more helpful for early-stage small startups and relatively limited for large companies. In large companies, the most effective way to utilize code assistants is by establishing clear abstraction layers between departments. This breaks down complex tasks into small pieces, narrows the context scope, and feeds it into the AI system, making it easier for the system to understand.

Yano: However, I think using the word "productivity" to describe AI's impact is not entirely accurate, especially for early-stage startups. If you are a company with 100, 200, or even 1000 people, a 3x or 4x productivity increase might be a big change. But for early-stage startups, they don't even think about "productivity." Their thinking is more: why should we even hire more people? I often see this in companies I've invested in and my friends' startups. They feel that with AI, we don't need to hire new employees at all. This phenomenon is really interesting. For example, I recently built two tools for sales: one is a sales commission calculator. The sales team often asks me how much they can earn. Previously, we needed to ask the finance team to calculate it, and the finance team found it troublesome. Now with this tool, the problem is solved. Another tool is a dashboard for sales data. This tool can calculate the cost of the dashboard. Previously, we needed to ask the data team and consider whether they used Dune or Gold Sky to index the data. If not, we had to pay extra. Now I developed a dashboard cost calculator based on all ports. What is the significance of these small tools? They mean we don't need to hire a person专门 responsible for sales support anymore, so by 2026, we might see some unicorn startups with just one or two people. Such startups may have already started; although they haven't reached a billion-dollar valuation yet, they are developing rapidly.

Qiao: Absolutely. I know many people who are now running subscription businesses with $10 million in annual revenue by themselves. These people are often former engineers from Meta and Uber who got tired of the bureaucracy of big companies and chose to start their own businesses.

Yano: But I've noticed an interesting phenomenon: some of the most successful AI startups are not companies like ChatGPT or OpenAI, but rather small businesses that leverage AI. These companies are reluctant to disclose their core business. Usually, if you have a startup that's doing well, with rapidly growing revenue, you want to tell the world, raise funds, or promote it on social media.

Do Moats Still Exist?

Yano: What is your view on company moats? Do you think the definition of a moat will change?

Qiao: The nature of the moat hasn't changed, but moats in the software sector are indeed weakening rapidly. For early-stage startups, there is almost no moat to speak of. Companies like Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and Apple, their moats are still solid. AI code assistants cannot destroy these moats. For example, Apple's moat is its developer ecosystem, and Microsoft's moat is the high cost for users to switch from PC to other platforms. In cloud services, the moats of AWS, Azure, and Google GCP are the high costs for customers to switch cloud platforms. Additionally, there are platforms like YouTube that have massive proprietary data; they can use this data to develop very powerful video models. Also, Microsoft's enterprise software, these are super critical tools. Of course, you can replicate Office's functions, but will enterprises really switch from Office to other software? For them, these tools are too important, and the switching cost is too high. But I recently noticed an example that might be one of the biggest undervaluation cases in the current financial market: Adobe. Photoshop and Adobe's Creative Suite are very famous. Now there is a view in the market that the latest video models and image generation models will replace Adobe's products. But I think this view is completely wrong because Adobe's moat lies in its enterprise-level integration capabilities. Many enterprise users of Adobe's Creative Suite store their images and videos in Adobe's cloud. For these creative industry professionals, the cost of switching from Adobe Cloud to other services is very high. Furthermore, many creative workers have been using Photoshop for years, and their operations have become muscle memory. Switching to other tools is very difficult for them. Therefore, Adobe's current P/E ratio is only 12x, which is incredibly low for such a high-quality company.

Yano: Suppose you work at a company, say a ten-year-old startup with 500 employees. How should the company respond? Many young entrepreneurs may already be familiar with these technologies, but for a more mature company, it might not be so easy to adapt. Employees might just throw things into ChatGPT and send automated emails.

Qiao: I don't think you can force a company to adopt new technology; you must let them find application scenarios where AI technology can have an immediate impact and see the huge benefits it can bring. By the way, this is actually our experience at Alliance over the past three years. We knew three years ago that AI would become an important trend, and we proposed becoming an "AI-first" organization at that time, but we didn't try to force AI into every corner of the organization. Instead, we used AI to automate some specific processes. For example, we receive thousands of applications every year. Three years ago, I needed to read all the application documents myself, about 5000 a year. This work was very draining, simply exhausting. But now, we use AI to automate about 50% of the work.

Yano: How did you do that? Did you use Opus 4.5? How was this system built? What was the input, and what was the output effect? Why only 50%? Why not 99%?

Qiao: Yes, this software was developed by our engineers. I think the code itself is no longer the bottleneck now; the key is designing the right "prompt". I wouldn't call it a secret weapon because everyone actually knows some characteristics of excellent founders. I just converted these rules of thumb about excellent founders or excellent startups into prompts to screen applications. Currently, the main role of this system is to exclude obviously unqualified applications, rather than directly telling me which are the best candidates, because I believe this part still requires the judgment of human interviewers. AI hasn't reached that level yet, but I believe that by the end of this year, you will see AI and AI-driven venture capitalists outperforming humans in this aspect.

Yano: I feel like the prices of these tools are ridiculously low now, just like when Uber first launched, it only cost $5 to go from the Financial District to the Upper East Side in New York. At that time, you felt this price was obviously wrong, but they were subsidizing users with venture capital to attract them. How valuable do you think these tools are? How much do you think these tools are undervalued in terms of pricing? For example, how much would you be willing to pay for Opus 4.5?

Qiao: As for Opus, I'm not sure yet; it depends on what I can build with it. But taking Gemini as an example, I think its value is underestimated by at least two orders of magnitude. Right now I only pay $20 to use its Pro version, and I haven't even upgraded to Pro Plus yet.

Yano: If Gemini charged $2000 per month, would you be willing to pay?

Qiao: Yes, because its functionality is very powerful. Actually, I said on Twitter that it is a research assistant, a junior researcher, a junior code assistant, a pretty good medical consultant (can double-check doctors' advice), and a pretty good legal assistant. Combined, if you add these functions together, $2000 is a steal.

The Decision to Invest in Google

Yano: How much time do you spend using apps like Gemini and Claude every day? From which daily activities do you squeeze out this time? For example, reduced Zoom meeting time, or less time spent on social media?

Qiao: Actually, I analyzed my time allocation half a year ago, and this also prompted my decision to invest in Google. I checked my iPhone usage records and found that the top three apps I use are Chrome, YouTube, and Gemini, and they are all Google products. Of course, I was initially worried that ChatGPT would threaten Google's search business, so I talked to my wife about it. She gave me some inspiration. She said the scenario where she uses Google Search the most is shopping, and ChatGPT cannot completely replace this function in the short term. Then I did some research and found that actually over half of Google's search revenue comes from shopping ads. This made me feel that Google's core business is still very solid. In the short term, no one can shake its position. Additionally, Google has technical advantages like GCP (Google Cloud Platform) and TPU (Tensor Processing Unit); these were key points I realized later. I think these factors all indicate that Google's moat is very strong. Therefore, I decided to invest in Google last year; this was almost my only large investment last year.

Yano: Last New Year's Eve, I had dinner with a Google employee, and we talked about these things. Everyone was discussing the tools they commonly use. That Google employee mentioned that many people overlook the fact that Google possesses vast shopping data, and the market doesn't seem to fully realize this yet. So, are there other similar opportunities?

Qiao: I think Adobe could be this year's Google because its current valuation is very cheap, and the market's perception of it is somewhat similar to how Google was viewed back then. Actually, I've never used it myself, but I know it has many use cases.

Yano: No new users will use Adobe. Like Google, my commonly used apps are YouTube; I use YouTube very frequently, and also Gemini. But Adobe? I don't use it at all, so I think new users won't choose Adobe either.

Qiao: But all new users will use Google. I think a common misunderstanding in the market is that Adobe is not a consumer-facing product but an enterprise product.

Yano: It is an enterprise product, but my company wouldn't even consider using Adobe; Figma is more popular.

Qiao: Figma and Adobe actually serve two different markets. Adobe has lost the market competition for new project demos and website development; Figma dominates this field. What about Canva?

Yano: Canva targets the low-end market, more suitable for amateur users, while Adobe serves high-end enterprise users. So I agree with you; Adobe's new user growth has indeed stagnated for a long time, but its pricing power is very strong, able to continuously increase subscription fees.

How to Allocate Time Wisely in 2026

Yano: As a Google user, I want to talk about investment, but I更想探讨一个问题: in 2026, how should we allocate our time wisely? How do you think AI will change the way we allocate our time?

Qiao: Well, I think everyone should learn to code, and they must. If you don't, you might be left far behind. However, coding here doesn't mean traditional programming; it refers to using automation tools to optimize certain aspects of your life and work. I believe there will be many B2B SaaS software in the future, like Gmail, Zoom, etc. People will still pay to use these general tools. But at the same time, everyone's workflow will have some special needs, and these needs are very personalized. Third-party software companies may not develop targeted solutions for these specifically. Yano: For example, we at Blockworks can develop a commission calculator ourselves. This is a good example; no one would develop a dedicated SaaS software to do this kind of thing. Qiao: And when I say "everyone should learn to code," it shouldn't be scary. Because technology now allows us to not actually write complex code. You just need to converse with the system in natural language to achieve automation. So, I would strongly recommend everyone, not necessarily to use complex tools like Claude Opus. I can recommend some simpler, easier-to-use tools. For example, Replit. The first time I realized the potential of AI was through Replit. That's when I understood that AI is not just a chatbot; it can help you build anything. This technology will completely change our world. I highly recommend everyone to try Replit; it's really cool.

Yano: What impact do you think this gap will have on the labor market?

Qiao: I think it will be like the popularization of the internet. These tools will make those who are already efficient and capable even more efficient and smarter, while those who are inefficient may fall further and further behind. Artificial intelligence is an extremely powerful tool that can significantly improve efficiency, but ultimately it depends on how much you are willing to use it.

Using AI Models for Investing

Yano: In a sense, playing devil's advocate, do you think the Warren Buffett stock tracker you spent time building was really worth it?

Qiao: Yes, it did take me quite some time. Although the result was pretty good, more importantly, during the process of building this tool, I gained a deeper understanding of the related technology. This tool can be seen as a digital clone of investment masters like Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Howard Marks, Peter Drucker, and Bill Miller. It regularly scans thousands of stock tickers and conducts in-depth research on each stock, trying to simulate Buffett and Munger's investment logic. The code part is actually simple, but designing the prompt took me months of反复调整. I designed a very detailed prompt to simulate the thought process of Buffett and Munger evaluating potential investment opportunities. This process is divided into six steps. First, the deep research model collects information on six key aspects they might focus on. Then, it calls another API, using a reasoning model for analysis. Deep research and reasoning models are two separate stages. The deep research model is very good at collecting facts and data, while the reasoning model, although it sometimes generates some misinformation, performs better in logical inference. Once accurate data is input into the reasoning model, its analytical ability far exceeds that of the deep research model. Next, I call the reasoning model in the second stage, letting it simulate the "digital Buffett and Munger" investment committee to analyze whether a stock is worth investing in. Finally, it outputs a specific recommendation. That's the entire process. Have you heard of a theory? Some people think Renaissance Technologies discovered large language models (LLMs) long before others but kept the technology secret, which might be why their investment returns are so high. However, my original intention in designing the Buffett and Munger model was to avoid competing with Renaissance Technologies. They are very good at short-term trading, like intraday or weekly operations. On such short time scales, the latest AI models indeed find it difficult to compete with them.

Yano: So are you also competing with companies like Susquehanna?

Qiao: Yes, but my model is more偏向于 long-term investment. In today's market, almost no one has the patience to hold a stock for more than 5 minutes, which is also where language models can play a role.

Yano: So, how do you combine the advice of different investment masters? For example, Howard Marks' advice might be completely different from Peter Drucker's, and their thinking is quite opposite to Buffett's.

Qiao: I would take a weighted average of their advice, considering them comprehensively.

Yano: Did they all recommend buying Adobe?

Qiao: Yes. Another interesting phenomenon is that if you run the same prompt multiple times, the model might give different answers each time. So if you run the same question multiple times and average the results, and the result each time suggests buying a certain stock, then the credibility of this suggestion will be greatly improved. It recommended about ten stocks, four of which are actually already in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio. For example, Chubb, an insurance company, and Google.

How AI is Changing Brands and Distribution

Yano: How will AI change the way brands communicate and content is distributed? For example, we mentioned Delphi earlier. I don't know if you noticed OpenAI's recently launched Sora tool. With Sora, you can clone someone's image and embed it into your video. This makes me think about changes in marketing and branding. In the near future, brand marketing will obviously become more personalized.

Qiao: This trend has actually already started. A few days ago, I saw an ad on LinkedIn that said: "Hey, Jason, as the co-founder of Blockworks, I really think you'll like Rippling."

Yano: AI will make their advertising algorithms smarter; ads will become very精准. Actually, a few days ago I searched online for a term—High Rocks. It's a CrossFit-like marathon fitness event; I've been training for High Rocks recently, so I searched the App Store for High Rocks fitness apps and found some fitness apps specifically for High Rocks training. But High Rocks is a very niche activity;按理说 there shouldn't be so many dedicated apps. I found it strange, so I wanted to know if these apps were really designed for High Rocks or if they just customized ads for users searching "High Rocks." Sure enough, these apps are actually some ordinary fitness and nutrition apps, but their advertising targeting is very precise. So I think this kind of customized advertising will become more common in the future.

Health and Longevity

Yano: What changes have been most effective for you in terms of health?

Qiao: Actually, in the final analysis, the most important are still the three basic factors: diet, sleep, and exercise. Back in 2021, I used to be very追求细节上的优化, like trying various supplements, sauna methods, etc. But after four or five years of personal practice, reading大量 research, and listening to countless podcasts, I found that nothing is more effective than getting 8 hours of sleep every night, maintaining a healthy diet, and sticking to regular exercise.

Yano: So how do you安排 your diet and exercise?

Qiao: To be honest, I no longer pursue极致优化 of diet. Doing that made me feel very stressed. I just try to maintain a healthy diet without putting too much pressure on myself.

Yano: This reminds me of a neurology meme. The person in the middle does complex food preparation every day and takes 17 supplements in the morning. And your current attitude is "eat healthy, don't overthink it."

Qiao: Yes, I found that if I try to optimize everything to the extreme, like Bryan Johnson does (Note: Bryan Johnson is an entrepreneur known for extreme health management), I feel a lot of pressure. And stress leads to increased cortisol levels, which is not good for longevity.

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat is Qiao Wang's current view on the market and how is his portfolio positioned?

AQiao Wang believes the market is overly optimistic and valuations are near historical highs. He is cautious and holds about 40% of his portfolio in cash. The remaining 60% is split roughly 50/50 between stocks and Bitcoin, with crypto tokens making up less than 1%.

QWhich stocks does Qiao Wang consider his largest investments and why?

AHis largest investment is in Google (Alphabet). He also holds significant positions in Tencent and Amazon. He invested in Google after analyzing his own usage patterns (Chrome, YouTube, Gemini) and concluding that its core search business, particularly shopping ads, has a strong moat. He sees Amazon as a long-term play with strength in robotics.

QWhy did Qiao Wang describe Claude Opus 4.5 as a 'holy shit this is over' moment?

AHe found that Opus 4.5 could take a very clear, comprehensive natural language specification and generate complete, functional code on the first try, handling details and edge cases that previously required a human engineer. This blurred the line between a general-purpose chatbot and a coding assistant, dramatically increasing productivity for early-stage projects.

QHow does Qiao Wang believe AI will change the nature of startups and company moats?

AHe believes AI significantly boosts productivity, especially for early-stage startups, potentially enabling one or two-person companies to become unicorns. He argues that while the essence of a moat hasn't changed, software moats are rapidly eroding. However, moats for giants like Google, Microsoft, and Apple remain strong due to ecosystems, switching costs, and proprietary data.

QWhat is Qiao Wang's perspective on the value of current AI tools like Gemini and their pricing?

AHe believes tools like Gemini are drastically undervalued. He stated he would be willing to pay $2000 per month for Gemini, valuing it as a powerful research assistant, junior coder, medical consultant, and legal assistant combined. He compares the current pricing to the early, subsidized days of Uber.

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An article from Odaily Planet Daily, authored by Azuma, discusses a peculiar phenomenon observed on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the "2028 US Presidential Election" event. Despite having a real-time probability of less than 1%, unlikely candidates such as NBA star LeBron James (with $48.41 million in trading volume), celebrity Kim Kardashian ($33.84 million), and even ineligible figures like Elon Musk ($23.14 million) and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani ($18.39 million) account for approximately 70% of the total trading volume. In contrast, high-probability candidates like Vice President JD Vance ($10.58 million), California Governor Gavin Newsom ($15.71 million), and Secretary of State Marco Rubio ($9.32 million) have significantly lower trading activity. The article explains that this counterintuitive trend is not driven by irrational speculation but by rational strategies. Polymarket offers a 4% annualized holding reward for certain markets, including the 2028 election, to maintain long-term pricing accuracy. This yield exceeds the current 5-year US Treasury rate (3.98%), attracting large investors ("whales") to hold "NO" shares on low-probability candidates for risk-free returns. Additionally, some users utilize a platform feature that allows converting a set of "NO" shares into corresponding "YES" shares for better liquidity or pricing efficiency, rather than directly buying "YES" shares for their preferred candidates. Thus, the seemingly absurd trading activity is strategically motivated.

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Polymarket's "2028 Presidential Election" Volume King Is... LeBron James???

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Dialogue with ViaBTC CEO Yang Haipo: Is the Essence of Blockchain a Libertarian Experiment?

"ViaBTC CEO Yang Haipo: Blockchain as a Hardcore Libertarian Experiment" In a deep-dive interview, ViaBTC CEO Yang Haipo reframes the essence of blockchain, arguing it is not merely a new technology or infrastructure but a hardcore libertarian experiment. This experiment, born from the 2008 financial crisis and decades of cypherpunk ideology, tests a fundamental question: to what extent can freedom and self-organization exist without centralized trust? The discussion highlights the experiment's verified outcomes. On one hand, it has proven its core value of censorship resistance, providing critical financial lifelines for entities like WikiLeaks and individuals in hyperinflationary or sanctioned countries via tools like stablecoins. However, Yang points out a key paradox: the most successful product, USDT, is itself a centralized compromise, showing users prioritize a less-controlled pipeline over pure decentralization. On the other hand, the experiment has exposed the severe costs of this freedom—a "dark forest" without safeguards. Events like the collapses of LUNA, Celsius, and FTX, resulting in massive wealth destruction and prison sentences for founders, underscore the system's fragility and the inherent risks of an unregulated environment. Yang observes that despite decentralized protocols, human nature inevitably recreates centralized power structures, speculative frenzies, and narrative-driven cycles (from ICOs to Meme coins), where emotion and belonging often trump technological substance. Looking forward, he believes blockchain's future is significant but niche. Its real value lies in serving specific, real-world needs for financial sovereignty and bypassing traditional controls, not as a universal infrastructure replacing all centralized systems. For the average participant, Yang's crucial advice is to cultivate independent judgment. True freedom is not holding a crypto wallet, but possessing a mind resilient to groupthink and narrative hype in a high-risk, often irrational market.

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Dialogue with ViaBTC CEO Yang Haipo: Is the Essence of Blockchain a Libertarian Experiment?

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