JPMorgan has trimmed its forecast of non-oil growth for Gulf economies. This has brought cryptocurrencies into the picture due to the ongoing Middle East conflicts. While the cut is mild, the impact could rather be broader than expected, given that Iran is one of the biggest oil producers in the world.
Reviewing Cryptocurrencies First
The effect on cryptocurrencies could lead to further declines – like BTC, which is estimated to go as low as $60,000 in 2026. For reference, the flagship cryptocurrency is trading at $66,301.04 at the time of writing this article. Cryptocurrencies are also expected to lose their grip, at least in the short-term, because Gold and Silver continue to remain alternatives as safe-haven.
Cryptocurrency price predictions are being revised accordingly. For instance, BTC was earlier estimated to surpass $80k by April 2026; however, it has been brought down to around $70,200. This is despite a volatility dropping from around 11% to approximately 6%.
Cryptocurrencies are also likely to be affected by the US Federal Reserve rate cut decision and/or the next inflation data. Moreover, artificial intelligence (AI) and tariffs gaining momentum could impact the digital asset sector too.
JPMorgan on GCC Non-Oil Growth Forecast
The middle-east conflict has brought JPMorgan back to the table to calibrate the non-oil growth forecast for GCC, the Gulf Cooperation Council. It has shortened the average growth by 0.3 percentage points. The biggest reduction has come for Bahrain and the UAE, each losing 0.5 percent points and 0.4 percent points, applicable in the same order.
The analyst has called this ongoing conflict elevated, adding that it is prevalent across multiple fronts. The final scenario would eventually depend on the outcome of the conflict.
JPMorgan has also taken a dig at rate cuts by the Bank of Israel. It has acknowledged the direct involvement of Israel to state that BOI may not cut rates in March 2026. Notably, JPMorgan had earlier expressed bullish sentiments for cryptocurrencies.
US Dollar and Gold Amid the Conflict
The US Dollar has gained strength on the index. It is up by 0.63% at 98.260 when the article is being drafted. That further reflects a strength of 0.40% over 5 days and 2.18% in a month.
Gold is also under the spotlight since gaining 2.18% over 24 hours. The precious metal is now trading at $5,391.620 per ounce after briefly hovering around $5,250. Such a surge in Gold prices is sliding the interest of investors away from risky ventures, like the crypto market.
The content of this article is neither a recommendation nor advice. Thorough research and risk assessment are strongly suggested.
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