Bitcoin’s (BTC) price could reach a new all-time high in 2026 if it clears three key hurdles, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.
The executive noted in a new blog post that easing market risks, potential U.S. regulatory progress, and stable equity markets are critical factors for sustaining a rally.
Hougan added that the early momentum could extend if macro and regulatory conditions fall into place.
“I believe there are three big hurdles standing between us and new all-time highs,” he wrote.
“Fortunately, we’ve already cleared one,” he added.
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Hougan said the first and most immediate hurdle was avoiding a repeat of large-scale market liquidations, such as the one on Oct. 10, 2025.
Roughly $19 billion in crypto futures positions were wiped out in a single day.
“One of the reasons crypto struggled to rally in Q4 was that investors worried one of these big players might have to wind down operations,” Hougan said, adding that such forced sales “hung over the market like a heavy fog.”
He argued that the risk has now largely faded.
“If it were going to happen, it probably would have happened by now,” Hougan wrote, noting that firms shutting down operations would likely have done so by the end of the year.
Hougan said investors have now “put Oct. 10 in the rearview,” helping explain the rally at the start of 2026.
U.S. Crypto Legislation Bullish For Bitcoin Price
According to Hougan, the second hurdle is regulatory clarity in the U.S., particularly the passage of a long-awaited crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act.
The bill is currently moving through Congress, with the Senate targeting Jan. 15 for a markup process that would align drafts across committees before a full vote.
“Hurdles remain, including competing visions of how to regulate DeFi, stablecoin rewards, and political conflicts of interest,” Hougan wrote.
Adding: “But if the bill can make it through markup, it would represent a huge step toward approval.”
Hougan’s comments come amid pushback from a coalition of banking groups in the U.S. that claim stablecoin issuers and their affiliates should also be prohibited from paying interest or rewards to token holders.
GENIUS Act bars stablecoin issuers from paying interest, yield, or rewards on their tokens, in order to prevent stablecoins from competing directly with bank deposits.
The groups warned that “allowing inducements like interest payments, yield, or rewards could incentivize customers to park their savings not in a bank, but in stablecoins.”
The bankers said some companies have exploited “a perceived loophole” by indirectly funding payments to stablecoin holders through digital asset exchanges and other partners.
Banks warned that billions could be “displaced from community bank lending, small businesses, farmers, students, and home buyers in towns like ours will suffer.”
A Stable Market Backdrop Will See Bitcoin Price Grow
The third condition for getting a new all-time high Bitcoin price is stability in broader financial markets, particularly U.S. equities.
Hougan said crypto does not require a booming stock market to perform well, but warned that a sharp sell-off could weigh on all risk assets.
“We don’t need a raging bull market,” he wrote.
“But a sharp collapse — say, a 20% pullback in the S&P 500 — would take the shine off of all risk assets in the short term, crypto included.”
While concerns remain about elevated equity valuations and a potential AI bubble, Hougan noted that prediction markets currently assign a relatively low probability to a U.S. recession in 2026.
He also added that there was an 80% chance of gains in the S&P 500.
Bullish on Tokenization and Stablecoins
Hougan’s comments come after previously bullish predictions about the future of stablecoins and tokenized financial assets poised for rapid expansion.
“I have a lot of confidence that the stablecoin and tokenization infrastructure market will grow,” Hougan said on Oct. 10.
“It’s easy for me to imagine this market growing by 10x or more,” he added.
Hougan said Solana was particularly in a great position to capture a growing share of that expansion.
“It offers fast, user-friendly technology, backed by a great community with a ship-fast attitude,” he said.
While acknowledging that Solana remains a newer asset than Ethereum (ETH), Hougan said it is closing the gap in institutional adoption.
“It’s a newer asset and is playing catch-up against its peers in winning institutional mandates, but it’s gaining ground,” he said.
