Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance were surging, pointed out crypto analyst Darkfost. Generally, increased inflows of a crypto asset to an exchange reflect increased selling pressure on the Bitcoin price.
The Whale Inflow Ratio works by comparing BTC inflows from the 10 largest transactions to total inflows.
A 7-day moving average smooths out the signals, making interpretation of trends easier.
Between the 2nd and 15th of February, the whale inflow ratio rose from 0.4 to 0.62. This was a clear sign that the whales accounted for an increased share of inflows to Binance.
It underlined the uncertain market conditions, the analyst wrote.
AMBCrypto had reported that capitulation was localized to short-term holders. Continued pressure from larger holders could add to the structural strain on Bitcoin [BTC], which was undergoing controlled deleveraging.
Short-term Bitcoin price expectations
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr used the Short-Term Holder (STH, 155-day or younger) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) to demonstrate profit-taking pressure.
The metric had been below 1 in recent weeks to signal coins were being sold at a loss.
During the recent bounce to $70.9k, the daily SOPR briefly surfaced above 1. The price immediately saw another correction, and the metric has fallen to 0.975.
The weekly STH SOPR remained below 1, signaling persistent sell pressure on a weekly basis.
Additionally, the STH MVRV Ratio had fallen below the -1 standard deviation of the 155-day mean MVRV.
For your context, the MVRV ratio, or market value to realized value, is used to calculate if these holders are at a loss.
Generally, values below the -1 STD imply oversold zones. It needs to climb from 0.75 to above 0.82, the lower bound of the normal range (within 1 STD), to signal easing structural pressure.
The combination of STH SOPR and MVRV meant that any price bounce will likely be aggressively sold off. In the short term, this meant that there was a risk of a Bitcoin price drop to $65k.
Despite the short-term volatility, institutional conviction in BTC remains strong. J.P.Morgan still believes that the Bitcoin price can go to $266k in 2026.
Final Summary
- The Bitcoin price can fall to $65k later this week.
- The onchain metrics showed that short-term holders were prepared to sell any BTC bounce aggressively.
