Bitcoin (BTC) at a Critical Juncture: Downward Drift or Recovery Ahead?

TheNewsCryptoPublicado em 2025-12-13Última atualização em 2025-12-13

Resumo

Amid a fearful crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a downward drift, trading at $90,313 with a 2.09% loss. Despite briefly reaching over $92,700, it fell to around $89,500. Technical indicators are mixed: the MACD suggests a bearish trend, while the CMF indicates weak selling pressure. Key support is at $90,248, with further decline risking a death cross below $90,113. Resistance sits at $90,451, and a bullish push could target $90,579. The RSI at 45.45 shows neutral to bearish sentiment, and the negative Bull Bear Power confirms seller dominance. The market cap is $1.8T, with a 44.69% surge in trading volume to $83.1B. Over $71M in BTC was liquidated in 24 hours.

With the fear sentiment across the crypto market, the majority of the tokens are charted in red, while a very few are in green. The market is fluctuating between losses and gains. Meanwhile, the largest asset, Bitcoin (BTC), has been stuck in the bear trap, despite multiple recovery attempts.

BTC could reach $95K once the potential bulls assert dominance. As of today, in the early hours, the asset traded at a high range of $92,721.77. With the bearish command talks, the price fell back to a bottom level of $89,532.60. As per CMC data, Bitcoin has posted a 2.09% loss and is currently trading at $90,313.

In addition, the market cap of the asset is resting at $1.8 trillion, with the daily trading volume having surged by over 44.69%, reaching the $83.1 billion mark. The Coinglass data has reported that the market has experienced a liquidation of $71.83 million worth of Bitcoin during the last 24 hours.

Which Way Is Bitcoin Headed Next: Higher or Lower?

Bitcoin’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has crossed below the zero line, which implies the broader trend is bearish. However, with the signal line positioned above the zero line, the momentum is trying to shift upward.

Moreover, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator of BTC at -0.02 hints at weak selling pressure. The value is slightly below zero, showing the outflow of money, reflecting indecision, with neither buyers nor sellers in firm control.

If Bitcoin’s bearish command strengthens, it might push the price down to test its support at around $90,248. Further correction on the downside could trigger the death cross emergence, likely sending the asset’s price below the $90,113 range.

Assuming the asset’s price got charted in green, the nearby resistance would be hit at the $90,451 level. An extended bullish pressure might initiate the golden cross to take action, and drive the Bitcoin price up to revisit its recent high above $90,579.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) found at 45.45 indicates a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment. Notably, the current market momentum holds with no strong trend confirmed. BTC’s Bull Bear Power (BBP) value of -1,171.64 suggests strong bearish dominance. A deep negative value puts the sellers firmly in control, and the downtrend may continue unless the buyers step in.

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U.S. Bonds, AI, Inflation: You Can't Have All Three – What's Bitcoin Betting On?

Title: U.S. Treasury Bonds, AI, and Inflation: A Trilemma Facing Washington, and Where BTC Fits In Core Thesis: The U.S. government faces a trilemma: stabilizing the Treasury market, sustaining the AI investment cycle, and controlling inflation. The likely political choice is to prioritize the first two, accepting higher inflation for longer. This creates a sustained tailwind for both gold and Bitcoin by injecting liquidity and shifting duration risk away from the private sector. Key Pressures on Treasuries: * Long-term yields (e.g., 10-year ~4.70%) are near multi-decade highs due to persistent inflation risks, high fiscal supply, weaker demand for long duration, and new competition from AI infrastructure financing. * AI investment, requiring massive capital (estimated ~$300B in investment-grade bond issuance), is now competing directly with the Treasury in long-duration debt markets. * Geopolitical tensions (e.g., Iran conflict) add upward pressure on oil prices and defense spending. Policy Response: The Treasury, under Secretary Besant, is focusing on market stability through measures like supporting the Yen (to prevent forced Japanese Treasury sales), increasing repo operations for long-dated bonds, and potentially shifting issuance toward the short end. This "aggressive Treasury issuance" can function like "stealth QE," easing financial conditions. Impact on Assets: * **Gold** has already benefited (up ~90% from Aug 2024 to Aug 2026), driven by declining trust in the USD, inflation fears, and a "monetary debasement" narrative. * **Bitcoin** is now showing stronger correlation with this theme. Recent outperformance vs. gold (BTC +22.2% vs. Gold +5.9% in late Aug) coincided with Treasury's enhanced repo actions, suggesting the market may be pricing it as a liquidity/ debasement hedge, not just a speculative tech asset. Conclusion: If high inflation, large deficits, and AI capital demands persist, the cost of stabilizing bonds and growth will be shorter debt maturity, constant liquidity support, and tolerance for higher inflation—a favorable environment for gold and BTC. This view would be challenged only by a return to ~2% inflation, credible fiscal consolidation, or AI becoming self-funding.

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