Bitcoin bear market ‘over’ as price metric copies 2023 recovery: CryptoQuant CEO

cointelegraphPublicado em 2026-08-28Última atualização em 2026-08-28

Resumo

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin's bear market is "over" as a key profitability indicator has turned positive for the first time since October. The platform's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which composites several on-chain metrics, registered a reading of 0.042 as of August 26, signaling a shift to a bullish phase. This pattern mirrors a similar signal that preceded the market recovery in early 2023. The indicator hit a low in February when Bitcoin price fell to $60,000. However, some analysts express caution, citing concerns over insufficient market liquidity and upcoming resistance levels that could challenge the sustainability of the current price uptrend.

According to some metrics, Bitcoin (BTC) has ended its bear market as a composite BTC price indicator flips bullish for the first time since October 2025.


Key points:


  • Bitcoin has exited its 2026 bear market, Ki Young Ju says as a profitability metric prints a positive reading of 0.042.
  • The breakout from negative to positive numbers repeats a bull-market recovery signal also visible in early 2023.
  • Concerns remain over insufficient market liquidity to support a macro BTC price trend change.


Bitcoin profit metric offers first bull signal in ten months


The latest data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant has led its CEO, Ki Young Ju, to call time on Bitcoin’s 2026 bear market.


In an X post on Wednesday, Ki flagged the first positive reading on CryptoQuant’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator since early October.


“The Bitcoin bear cycle is over,” he wrote in accompanying commentary.


The indicator is derived from the P&L Index — initially devised by CryptoQuant’s head of research — and measures the P&L Index’s distance from its 365-day moving average. The P&L Index itself is composed of several onchain profitability metrics: the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and the spent output profit ratio (SOPR). Together they provide an overall picture of Bitcoin investors’ realized and unrealized profits and losses. Values above zero for the Bull/Bear indicator point to bullish phases in the BTC price cycle as profitability improves.


Current cycle lows came on Feb. 5 as BTC/USD fell to $60,000, with a reading of -1.244 corresponding to “extreme bear” conditions. As of Aug. 26, the most recent date for which full data is available, Bull/Bear displayed a positive reading of 0.042, placing it in its “bull” bracket.


Bitcoin Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Source: CryptoQuant


The combination of P&L metrics and their 365-day moving averages has proven accurate at confirming macro BTC price trend changes. Ki notes that Bull/Bear likewise called the end of the previous bear market as upside returned in early 2023.


Bitcoin Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator historical data. Source: CryptoQuant


Misgivings over BTC price strength continue to mount


Bitcoin has seen the slow return of bull signals from various indicators in recent weeks, including the relative strength index (RSI), a recovery for which was also present at the end of 2022.


Related: Supply absorption ‘key question’ as Bitcoin fails to reclaim $80K: Analysis


Consensus among market participants over Bitcoin’s recent upside marking the end of its macro downtrend is by no means unanimous. Previously, Cointelegraph reported on concerns that a lack of demand could see BTC/USD revert to downside, with multiple liquidity hurdles lined up immediately above spot price.

In ongoing market commentary, trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that the August monthly close would be “pivotal” for the fate of the recovery, referring to a potential breakout from a downward-sloping resistance trend line in place since October last year.


Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the key indicator used by CryptoQuant's CEO to declare the Bitcoin bear market over?

ACryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator, specifically its move to a positive reading of 0.042 for the first time since October 2025, is the key indicator used to declare the bear market over.

QWhat underlying metrics compose the P&L Index which feeds into the Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator?

AThe P&L Index is composed of the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), and the spent output profit ratio (SOPR).

QWhat major concern does the article highlight about the current market's ability to support a sustained Bitcoin price recovery?

AThe article highlights the concern of insufficient market liquidity, with multiple liquidity hurdles existing above the spot price, which could prevent a macro trend change.

QAccording to the article, what was the 'extreme bear' reading of the Bull/Bear indicator and when did it occur?

AThe 'extreme bear' reading was -1.244, and it occurred on February 5th when BTC/USD fell to $60,000.

QWhy does trader Rekt Capital consider the August monthly close pivotal for Bitcoin's price action?

ARekt Capital considers the August monthly close pivotal because it could represent a breakout from a downward-sloping resistance trend line that has been in place since October of the previous year.

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