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If Bitcoin's price stays around $80K until the end of August, this month will become the period of fastest growth for the cryptocurrency since 2024. However, the successes of the last month of summer do not guarantee momentum in the autumn. Market participants are trying to understand whether what is happening is the beginning of sustainable growth or a local spike.
In forecasts for September, experts interviewed by "RBC-Crypto" suggested several possible scenarios. With positive developments in the macroeconomy and cryptocurrency regulation in the US, experts predict the possibility of Bitcoin's price rising up to $100K. With negative developments — a drop to $62K per coin.
Macroeconomics and the Dollar
The cryptocurrency market is approaching autumn in a noticeably stronger state than at the beginning of August. After several months of decline and consolidation, Bitcoin broke out of the $62-66K range and exceeded the $80K mark. Since the start of the month, the price of the first cryptocurrency has gained (as of August 27) about 26%.
This growth was facilitated by the weakening of the dollar, the resumption of inflows into crypto-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the liquidation of trading positions, notes VG GROUP Managing Partner Vagiz Nurullov. In his opinion, the main driver in autumn will remain the American macroeconomy.
He noted the US Treasury's decision to increase the buyback of long-term bonds, which in his view helped stabilize the debt market but simultaneously increased pressure on the dollar. As a result, investors began buying gold and Bitcoin again as a hedge against the gradual depreciation of national currencies.
However, the expert warned that inflation and bond yields remain high, so the harsh rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is still capable of provoking a sharp correction in the markets.
Independent IT consultant Roman Nekrasov also links the rise in Bitcoin's price to the macroeconomic agenda: "The US Treasury's decision to increase the buyback of long-term bonds is reviving interest in risk assets." In his opinion, this is precisely what prompted investors to more actively return to assets like Bitcoin for hedging risks.
Cryptocurrency Regulation in the US
Another important factor influencing the market will be regulation, noted Nurullov. He recalled that in the US, a strategic Bitcoin reserve has already been created, legislation on stablecoins has been adopted, and major market regulators have begun jointly developing rules for digital assets. American authorities are gradually transitioning from "fighting cryptocurrencies to integrating them into the traditional financial system."
The main political event in September, according to Nurullov, will be the decision on the CLARITY Act bill, developed to regulate the crypto market. He noted that expectations for the law's passage have already become one of the reasons for the August growth, but passing the law in the Senate remains difficult. The failure of the vote will not change the overall favorable course of the administration, but could lead to asset sales on negative news, the expert added.
Notably, representatives of the largest asset manager — BlackRock — do not consider regulation in the US to be a factor influencing Bitcoin's price at all. They believe all necessary regulation for Bitcoin already exists and this issue has a greater impact on the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector.
"For the market, this is important because it reduces regulatory uncertainty. The less uncertainty, the higher the willingness of large capital to invest in assets," clarified Nekrasov.
Institutional Demand for Bitcoin
Institutional demand is also returning, writes Nurullov, pointing out that after a period of outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded five consecutive days of inflows totaling almost $2 billion. Now it is ETFs, funds, and corporate purchases that are increasingly determining the market direction, gradually reducing the significance of the classic four-year cycle, he emphasizes.
For the incomplete August (as of the 27th), the capital inflow into Bitcoin ETFs amounted to almost $3.3 billion. Compared to less than $200 million a month earlier and more than $7 billion in total outflow over the two months prior to that.
Nekrasov also pointed to the importance of institutional demand, noting that if the current dynamic of ETF capital inflows continues, it could become an important stabilizing factor for the price.
Forecasts for Bitcoin and Altcoin Prices
Experts do not expect broad growth in the altcoin market. In particular, Nurullov believes this may not happen: "Bitcoin benefits from the weakening dollar, whereas Ethereum and most other assets need a full return of risk appetite. Therefore, capital will most likely be selectively distributed among the most liquid and fundamentally strong projects."
Nurullov's base scenario for autumn is Bitcoin's price moving in the $74-88K range. Consolidation above $85K would open the way for Bitcoin to $95-100K.
At the same time, according to the expert, in case of a tougher stance from the Fed or the failure of the CLARITY Act, a negative scenario could materialize — then Bitcoin's price could return to $70-72K, and then to $64-67K.
"Volatility has already returned — now the question is whether institutional demand can turn the August surge into a sustainable trend," concluded Nurullov.
Nekrasov also highlights two main scenarios. The first — if the macroeconomic and regulatory backdrop remains supportive and Bitcoin manages to hold above $75K. In his opinion, only in this case can one expect Bitcoin to move towards the $85-90K range during September.
Nekrasov's second scenario is a correction with a return to previous accumulation zones around $72-75K: "In this case, expectations for growth are postponed until late autumn and clearer signals from the US Fed regarding further monetary policy."
The expert clarified that precisely because of the speed of Bitcoin's price growth in August, the momentum looks ambiguous, as "Bitcoin basically hopped to the current level."
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