Source:Archive
Compiled|Odaily Planet Daily(@OdailyChina);Translator|Azuma(@azuma_eth)
Polymarket is the hottest prediction market platform where people use real money to bet on real-world event outcomes, such as US elections, sports matches, asset prices, policy changes, and more.
Polymarket operates on the Polygon network, uses USDC for settlement, and offers transparent, fast transactions with almost no fees.
There are also bots on Polymarket that profit massively by identifying traders' mistakes faster than others and repeatedly exploiting these errors through thousands of executions.
Why do bots thrive so well on Polymarket? The reasons are:
- Open API, transparent order book — bots can see everything;
- Extremely low fees, instant settlement — micro-spread arbitrage works effectively;
- Millions of human users trade manually, and many of them frequently make mistakes.
This is not an article advertising bots. It's a breakdown from the dumbest bot to a true money-making AI monster.
I. Entry-Level Bots
Airdrop Farming Bot: Volume Spammer
The market expects that interacting with Polymarket will yield generous airdrop rewards. These bots continuously buy and immediately sell the same position, repeating the cycle just to inflate trading volume — no real intent, purely for volume.
The operation is simple — choose a market with good liquidity, for example, buy a "YES" position for $10, then instantly sell it for $10, and the trading volume is boosted just like that.
Pros:
- None.
Cons:
- No one knows the specific criteria for the airdrop;
- The platform might not count such trades;
- The airdrop might not exist; you might be working for nothing.
Volatility Capture Bot: Specializes in Panic Moments
This type of bot looks for sharp price fluctuations and bets against the market, expecting mean reversion — prices will eventually return to normal.
The bot continuously monitors price history, calculating the deviation of the current price from the recent average. Once the price surges or plummets violently, the bot quickly takes a reverse position, betting that the market overreacted.
Pros:
- Operable with small capital;
- Simple and easy-to-understand logic;
- Profits from human emotions and mistakes.
Cons:
- Not all fluctuations are false; sometimes real big news causes market moves;
- If stop-loss or target levels are set wrong, fees alone can make you lose money;
- Risk management must be strict, otherwise it's a slow bleed.
II. Intermediate-Level Bots
Market Making Bot: Spread Harvester
This type of bot profits by continuously placing limit orders on both the buy and sell sides.
The bot places buy orders slightly below the current price and sell orders slightly above. When both are filled, the spread is captured. Additionally, Polymarket rewards liquidity provision, meaning dual income.
Pros:
- Dual income sources: spread + platform rewards;
- Surprisingly stable returns in calm, low-volatility markets;
- Effective if the right markets are chosen.
Cons:
- Requires at least $10,000+ in capital for the spread to be meaningful;
- Very afraid of sudden market swings: if your buy order gets filled just before a crash, you'll be stuck at a high point;
- One bad market can wipe out a week's profits.
III. Advanced-Level Bots
Arbitrage Bot
An arbitrage opportunity exists when the sum of the prices of correlated outcomes (e.g., the basic "YES" and "NO") is below 100%.
More complex tests involve arbitraging between different correlated markets (different phrasings of the same event, time windows, compound conditions, etc.). As long as the position is constructed, you can lock in profits regardless of the outcome.
Pros:
- Properly constructed arbitrage strategies do not depend on the event outcome;
- Profits from market inefficiencies that humans cannot process quickly.
Cons:
- The more arbitrage bots, the faster the opportunity window closes — profits get thinner;
- Paper-perfect arbitrage strategies can fail during execution from lack of liquidity.
AI Bot
These bots don't just look at prices; they can estimate the true probability more accurately than the market. They integrate and analyze historical prices, trading volume, news, on-chain data, whale behavior, and other clues, sometimes even analyzing collective sentiment on social media.
If the model determines the market is pricing a 40% probability while the true probability is 60%, the bot buys low and sells high, operating 24/7.
Pros:
- A successful AI bot can operate across politics, sports, macro, and other fields, running one model across hundreds of markets;
- Can cover multiple signal sources: statistical, on-chain, news, behavioral indicators.
Cons:
- High barrier to entry.
You need to have data pipelines, infrastructure, machine learning skills, financial intuition, a risk framework, and also invest resources in data storage, processing, continuous model retraining, monitoring, and building a bulletproof risk management system. This isn't a side project; it's equivalent to starting a startup.
Tech Stack (Required for All Bots)
Polymarket API Access: The official documentation contains all real-time data and order placement interfaces. Nothing can be done without this.
Polygon Wallet: Transactions are conducted in USDC on Polygon. You need a wallet private key to sign transactions and manage balances.
Historical Data Storage:
- Bots need: price, volume, spread, market metadata.
- Recommended PostgreSQL or SQL + columnar storage hybrid for fast data aggregation.
Python + Common Toolchain: For API requests, asynchronous processing, data analysis, machine learning libraries.
Why Do Bots Always Win?
- Speed: No emotions, no hesitation;
- Discipline: Strictly follows system rules;
- Scale: One bot can monitor thousands of markets while you sleep;
- Data Depth: Combines price, order book, news, behavioral patterns into signals you can't calculate manually;
In summary, using trading bots on Polymarket is a powerful tool for achieving automated income — but only if you manage risk properly.
