Author|Golem(@web 3_golem)
As an investor focusing on US AI and semiconductor stocks, if you haven't heard of Serenity, chances are your investment research is still at a novice level.
Why do we say that? Because he is currently the hottest US stock signal master online. From retail investors to Wall Street, almost everyone is reading his reports and copying his trades. Some even package his publicly free insights into paid courses within communities.
On May 24, Serenity announced his investment performance for the year on platform X: an annualized return rate of 3840.39%; just the day before, he also posted his investment return rate for the past two years, which reached as high as 2256.99%.
The "Far Ahead" Serenity
Serenity only joined X in July 2025, but by May this year, his follower count had surged to 358,000, with over 32,000 subscribers—less than 15,000 shy of Elon Musk's subscriber count. Yet, no one knows Serenity's real identity to this day. Public knowledge about his background comes only from his self-written bio:
- Former famous trader from Reddit WSB, now on X (Odaily note: Wall Street Bets is the largest retail trading community in the US; Serenity was banned in 2022 for recommending a stock with the ticker AXTI, which has since risen over 700% year-to-date);
- AI and semiconductor supply chain analyst, former RISC-V Foundation member, former AI research scientist;
- Currently primarily trades "the overlooked bottlenecks."
From this bio, it's clear Serenity positions himself as an expert in the AI field. He has even claimed to have rejected an offer from Nvidia's AI team in 2018. Serenity once stated in a post that his investment approach is also based on a thorough understanding and research of the AI and semiconductor industries. His typical investment research process is: first, conduct initial thesis research; then transform these ideas into actionable plans and trades; followed by subsequent due diligence on the Alpha; and finally, celebrate when the stock price rises.
As shown in the image below, community user @kaikaibtc compiled a list of Serenity's main stock holdings, which are mainly concentrated in sectors within the AI industry chain such as optical modules, silicon photonics, storage, CPO, and substrates. None of these 21 stocks have returns below 100%, with AXTI—the stock Serenity most frequently mentions and has been signaling for over two years—showing returns even exceeding 10000%. He has publicly stated that AXTI is his most legendary trade.
However, what's perhaps more impressive than these exaggerated returns is that before Serenity identified these targets, not only had retail investors not noticed them, but institutional players hadn't entered the market either.
When Serenity posted signals for specific stocks in the past, he was often met with skepticism. It was only months or even a year later, when investors witnessed the stocks' dramatic performance, that they realized he was right—RPI, AXTI, SIVE, etc., are vivid examples. After such cases repeated, the Serenity account naturally became a must-read for retail investors, Wall Street, and even Silicon Valley investors daily.
How does Serenity always stay ahead of the market and unearth those undervalued stocks? The secret lies in his self-developed investment theory focusing on supply chain bottlenecks (Chokepoints).
The Chokepoint Investment Method
Chokepoint is the most frequently appearing word in Serenity's posts and is the core of his investment logic.
AI is undoubtedly the dominant global narrative today, but the AI industry faces a clear supply-demand imbalance. On one hand, internet giants are frantically investing in AI infrastructure in a "military-style arms race"; on the other hand, the supply side is clearly insufficient, with Nvidia orders even entering a "rationing system." Therefore, capital has also realized that the current stage of AI development is not about downstream applications but the upstream supply chain. Whoever occupies a crucial position in the AI supply chain, whoever achieves irreplaceability, deserves to be repriced.
Thus, over the past few months, the market's hype around the AI industry has been progressively deconstructing the supply chain from the initial GPU computing power. The second layer includes storage, data centers, optical modules; further down are power, materials, network equipment, etc. This layered deconstruction of the AI supply chain to find key "chokepoint" companies at each stage is essentially Serenity's Chokepoint investment method, except he acted on it much earlier than most retail and institutional investors.
On March 31, when signaling AXTI, Serenity used an analogy to vividly explain what a chokepoint is. He compared it to the Strait of Hormuz. Over 20% of the world's crude oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical chokepoint in global energy trade. Similarly, AXTI's relation to AI optical module companies is akin to the Strait of Hormuz's relation to global energy trade.
The essence of Serenity's ability to obtain excess returns still stems from information asymmetry in the market. It's about using keen insight and foresight to find the "hidden champions" within the AI industry chain that are not fully priced in. These companies are not as glamorous as giants like Nvidia, Micron, or SK Hynix, but they are small-scale monopolies whose shortage or shutdown could cause an earthquake in the downstream trillion-dollar AI industry.
For example, when signaling IQE in February-March this year, Serenity repeatedly stated that both IQE and Landmark are major outsourced epitaxial wafer foundries for photonic chips. However, IQE's overall production capacity is much larger than Landmark's. At that time, Landmark's market cap was around $3.8 billion, while IQE's market cap was only $135 million.
It's worth mentioning that Serenity is not superhuman, knowing every detail of the AI supply chain. He frequently mentions using AI assistance for AI supply chain research, including dissecting the industry chain, uncovering suppliers, and debating ideas with AI.
True Legend or "Photoshop Master"
In the investment field, deifying any individual is extremely dangerous. Serenity's win rate is not 100%. Stocks he recommended earlier this year, like CPSH and INFQ, also experienced significant pullbacks in February and March. Rather than blindly copying his portfolio, retail investors and market participants should learn his research framework and mindset to develop their own systems and ultimately find their own Alpha.
Serenity is also a person with strong idealism and a mysterious aura. All his publicly available personal information lacks third-party verification, and no one even knows his gender. The only private information he has revealed is that he lives an international digital nomad life, currently in Japan learning Japanese; he also lived briefly in mainland China, so he knows some Chinese, and frequently travels to countries like South Korea, the UK, Singapore, and Canada, claiming to have visited at least 28 countries.
Since Serenity only shows return rates and not live trading records, some have questioned whether his profits might be fabricated. Serenity's response to this is: "The reason for not disclosing specific amounts is because the amount is not important." He only wants to prove that users can discover purely valuable information from free posts, and market return rates expressed as percentages are best suited to validate an argument. He also stated that he strongly dislikes traditional KOLs who flaunt money, luxury watches, cars, and private jets.
Opposing paywalls or paid communities is also a distinctive feature of Serenity. Most of Serenity's core market research is published on X, accessible for anyone to read for free—no barriers, no paid communities. His account subscription costs only $1 per month, and the content is just an Excel spreadsheet. Even without subscribing, it doesn't hinder understanding of his core viewpoints.
In this world where "all hustle and bustle is for profit," Serenity's behavior—seemingly uninterested in fame or profit, generously sharing his market views—appears unnaturally altruistic. Therefore, some speculate that Serenity is merely using his influence to manipulate the prices of these low-market-cap stocks: building positions at low prices, then pumping and dumping, leaving a token "ant position" in his account to mislead followers, especially since he never discloses actual profit amounts, only percentages.
This has a taste of "measuring the mind of a gentleman with one's own mean standard." Of course, Serenity has his own gentlemanly explanation.
He believes the stock market is a positive-sum game. His goal is to share key information before institutions "buy-in," allowing retail investors to also walk the right path and reap profits. He feels proud, especially when he sees them accessing wealth-creation insights without paying over $2000 to join any paid community. He claims to be changing the old model, stating that if he didn't tell the IQE story, institutions like AVGO would simply buy out IQE silently, leaving retail investors with no chance for profit.
Which version is the truth? Is Serenity someone who truly sees through the AI supply chain, or a top-tier player harvesting traders under the guise of a "chokepoint narrative"? Currently, we do not know. Whether Serenity will ultimately become a legend or a bubble, we can only leave it to time to answer.
