Author: WhiteForest
Everyone is asking the wrong question. The question is not "Will I lose my job?" but: Where do the unemployed go?
AI is not replace people; it replaces the parts of people that can already be standardized, replicated, and automated.
Think about it: humans originally evolved from monkeys.
Stone tools, writing, gunpowder, steam engines, electricity, computers. Every tool revolution has devalued a set of old skills, eliminated a set of old jobs, and collapsed a set of old orders. Humans did not disappear. Humans reorganized.
AI is the same pattern, just faster.
China Experienced a Larger-Scale Layoff Wave 30 Years Ago
Too many white-collar jobs are essentially about information搬运, rule application, and local optimization. Once models are smart enough, these jobs will inevitably be repriced. This is not an apocalypse; it's a clearance.
30 years ago, China experienced a more intense version. State-owned enterprise reforms led to massive layoffs. At the time, it seemed like the end for tens of millions of that generation. In retrospect, what disappeared was not the people, but the old positions. New private economies, new companies, and new jobs all grew out of that rupture. 15 years ago, a large proportion of China's listed companies actually inherited assets from the state-owned enterprise reforms.
Engineers Will Be the First to Be Impacted and the First to Recover
They understand abstraction the best, systems the best, and are closest to the new productive forces. When an engineer is laid off, it usually means that the part of their ability they were selling has matured enough to be packaged and automated. This is not a denial of their value; it is proof of the maturity of their past output.
But these people, like the state-owned enterprise laid-off workers 30 years ago, are precisely some of the smartest people of this era. Once these people enter the free market, the creativity they bring is immeasurable.
But most people overlook a more important point: AI is not just cutting jobs; it is rewriting the form of the company.
Most companies are not large because the problems require that many people. It's because the costs of communication, coordination, and execution are too high, so they can only keep adding people, layers, and processes.
AI is turning these organizational costs into software.
Companies will be smaller. What used to take 50 people will be done by 5 in the future. What used to require a team can be done by a strong individual with the right tools.
The Revenge of the Creators
The old game rewarded those who were good at managing large teams,搞 hierarchical coordination, and organizational expansion. This led to situations where HR became C-level or even CEO. Managing business was不如 managing people. Many of the best creators did not lose on judgment, product, or technology, but on their inability to operate an organization that increasingly resembled a bureaucratic machine.
AI weakens this shortcoming. In the next cycle, more small but strong companies will emerge. More people who are "not good at management but extremely good at creation" will be repriced. They did not lose to the market in the past; they lost to the organization. After AI lightens the organization, these people can directly transact with the world for the first time.
The Real Problem Is Not Unemployment, But How You Define Yourself
<极p style="text-align: justify; font-size: 16px; font-weight: inherit; word-break: break-all; line-height: 2; font-family: PingFang SC,Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,Hiragino Sans GB,Heiti SC,Microsoft YaHei,WenQuanYi Micro Hei,sans-serif;" data-path-to-node="18">After the old positions disappear, are you someone who waits for the system to take you in, or are you someone who uses new tools to reorganize production?AI will not淘汰 everyone equally. It accelerates differentiation. Some lose their jobs, some lose their illusions, and some use this reorganization to complete their leap.
My Judgment:
What AI lays off is not a group of people; it is an entire generation's superstition about stable career paths. The first people to be laid off will not disappear. Some of them will be the first to reorganize themselves, transforming from employees of the old system into creators of the next economy.
In every productivity revolution, what is淘汰 is not people, but those who refuse to rewrite themselves.
Those who最先 accept reality and begin to create a new world will prevail.
