In July 2026, spot trading activity on the cryptocurrency market could fall to its lowest level since November 2023. This is stated in a report by analysts at K33.
According to their data, the average daily spot trading volume over the last 30 days was $2.2 billion. Specialists also pointed to weak activity in derivatives: the open interest (OI) on CME remains near multi-year lows, and the OI for perpetual futures is holding around 300,000 $BTC.
"This picture accurately reflects the typical July slowdown, which historically has been the weakest period of the year for the crypto market in terms of $BTC trading volumes," states the message from K33 Research.
Analysts linked the weak volumes to pressure on crypto exchange revenues. As an example, they cited BitMEX, which announced its closure and will completely cease operations on September 23. Starting August 26, the company will apply risk limits, allowing users only to reduce positions. All remaining open positions will be force-closed by the time trading stops.
According to Coinglass, the 30-day spot trading volume for bitcoin was $102.39 billion, which is 33.83% lower than a month earlier. The futures trading volume for the same period fell by 28.95%, to $1.42 trillion.
Alexander Peresichan, CEO of Technobit, linked the decline in activity not only to seasonality but also to market participants' sentiment.
"Traders have become more cautious amid low volatility and the absence of a clear upward or downward trend," he noted.
At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is at 29 points. In early July, the indicator dropped to 20 points.
Millpay's Chief Operating Officer Igor Plotnikov pointed to the influence of the macroeconomic background.
"The escalating US-Iran conflict supports high oil prices and fuels inflationary risks. This forces investors to consider the possibility of a scenario where high interest rates will remain with us for a long time. In such an environment, cryptocurrencies, like other risk assets, receive less liquidity," he explained.
According to Plotnikov, statistics on capital inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs confirm investors' cautious stance. According to Farside, over the past two weeks, outflows have practically balanced inflows into the funds.
"Institutions are behaving passively: ETF flows are weak, and large players are waiting for clearer signals," he noted.
In the near term, the main catalysts for changing the market situation will be macroeconomic events, both experts believe. According to Plotnikov, investors are currently awaiting signals from the Fed regarding the key rate.
Prediction market traders increased the odds of a Fed rate hike
Peresichan emphasized that the Fed's decision largely depends on the situation in the energy market, the continuation of uncertainty around the US-Iran conflict, and high oil prices, which will inevitably lead to accelerating inflation, and consequently, to a slower rate cut than expected at the beginning of 2026.
At the June meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the target range at 3.5–3.75%. At the time of writing, 64.2% of traders do not expect changes. However, 35.8% of market participants anticipate an increase to 3.75-4%.
Recall that in July, analysts at Grayscale linked a possible bitcoin bottom to future Fed policy. In their opinion, macroeconomic factors have become more important than the classic four-year halving cycle.
How does the Fed rate affect cryptocurrency prices?
