Bitcoin Adjustment Signal Confirmed, HYPE Bull-Bear Divergence Intensifies | Invited Analysis

This week, the daily level a-wave rebound of Bitcoin may have peaked on July 21, with the market transitioning into a b-wave adjustment phase; HYPE is currently at the contention point of the key resistance zone between $60 and $63.5, and its path remains unclear. Below is a review of the multi-cycle structures of BTC and HYPE for this week, along with trading strategies and market verification of last week's short-term trades, for reference.

Summary of This Week's Core Trading Views:

• Analysis of BTC's multi-cycle price structure (Detailed in Part One)

• BTC market forecast and medium/short-term trading strategies for this week (Detailed in Part Two)

• Analysis of HYPE's hourly level price structure (Detailed in Part Three)

• HYPE market forecast and short-term trading strategies for this week (Detailed in Part Four)

Verification of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:

• BTC Market Forecast Verification: Last week's article explicitly stated that Bitcoin had a high probability of ending this round's first segment (a-wave) of daily level rebound near $67,300. Our prediction was accurately validated by the market.

• BTC Short-term Trading Results: Successfully executed one short-term short position (1x leverage) on Bitcoin last week, achieving a profit of approximately 1.70%. (Detailed in Part Five)

• HYPE Market Forecast Verification: Last week's article explicitly stated that any price rebound at the beginning of the week could be considered a retracement confirmation after breaking below the key support zone ($62~$63.5). So far, the market movement has been highly consistent with our judgment.

I. Analysis of Bitcoin's Multi-Cycle Price Structure

1. Analysis of Bitcoin's Daily Level Price Structure: (Based on price action after May 6th)

Chart 1: Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart

1. As shown in (Chart 1): The corrective movement initiated from the May 6th high of $82,850 has presented a four-segment corrective structure on the daily chart: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4).

2. From the daily structure analysis: The first segment (i.e., a-wave) rebound initiated from the July 1st low of $57,820 may have ended on July 21st, reaching a rebound height of $66,955.

3. If the a-wave rebound has ended, the market is currently in the b-wave adjustment phase. After the b-wave adjustment concludes (the precondition is that the adjustment low must not break below $57,820), there may be a potential subsequent c-wave rebound, which is expected to challenge the resistance area near $67,300 again.

2. In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Hourly Level Price Structure: (Using the 4-hour chart as the analysis timeframe)

Chart 2: Bitcoin 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

1. Within the 4-hour timeframe framework, the rebound initiated from the July 1st low (Point 44, approx. $57,820) to July 21st (Point 51, approx. $66,955) can be clearly divided into seven segments structurally: (44-45) to (50-51). Among them, the five overlapping segments (45-46), (46-47), (47-48), (48-49), (49-50) constitute the "five-segment" consolidation E.

2. Based on price structure analysis: Comparing the entry segment (44-45) and the exit segment (50-51) of consolidation E, it can be clearly judged that the rebound momentum of the exit segment is significantly weaker than that of the entry segment, forming a state of momentum divergence between them. Therefore, the rebound starting from "Point 44" may have ended at "Point 51", with a high probability of subsequent adjustment.

3. The adjustment starting from "Point 51" has already run two segments: (51-52) and (52-53). The current price action can be viewed as a retracement confirmation phase after the price broke below $65,700.

II. Bitcoin Market Forecast and Trading Strategies for This Week

1. BTC Market Forecast for This Week:

Core View for This Week:

1. Pay attention to the test results of the price retracing to near $65,700.

2. Pay attention to the support strength when the price tests the $60,950~$61,500 area.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $65,700~$67,300 area (previous important resistance area)

• Second Resistance Zone: $69,500~$71,000 area (previous important resistance area)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Near $63,700 (previous important support level)

• Second Support Level: $60,950~$61,500 area (previous important support level)

• Third Support Level: Near $57,820 (previous important support level)

4. Trading Strategies for This Week (Excluding sudden news impact)

1. Medium-Term Strategy:

Chart 3: Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Chart 3), the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel", confirming the market structure has shifted to a bear-dominated pattern. According to the predetermined trading plan: when the price rebounded near $67,000 showing signs of stagnation and our self-built quantitative model simultaneously issued a top signal, we strictly executed the strategy, increasing our medium-term short position to around 40%.

2. Short-Term Strategy: Utilize 30% of the position, set stop-loss points, and seek opportunities to "scalp" based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30-minute/60-minute charts as the operational timeframe).

3. In short-term trading, to dynamically respond to complex market evolution, we have pre-drafted two specific operational plans: A and B.

Plan A: Testing Shorts at Strong Resistance Zone.

• Entry: If the price rebounds and encounters resistance in the $65,700~$67,300 zone, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a short position of around 30%.

• Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When adjusting near important support levels and combined with quantitative model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.

Plan B: Light Long Positions at Strong Support Zone.

• Entry: If the price corrects to above the previous low of $57,820 and shows signs of stabilization and bottoming, combined with a bottom signal from the quantitative model, establish a long position of around 30%.

• Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When rebounding near important resistance levels and combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.

III. Analysis of HYPE's Hourly Level Price Structure

Chart 4: HYPE 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

1. As shown in (Chart 4), HYPE's adjustment from the July 7th high of $72.97 to the present (i.e., from Point 61 to Point 71) can be subdivided into a ten-segment corrective structure on the 4-hour chart. The five overlapping segments 62-63, 63-64, 64-65, 65-66, 66-67 constitute a "five-segment" descending consolidation.

2. The market is currently running the (70-71) rebound segment. Subsequently, two possible scenarios may emerge:

Path One: $56.47 marks the end of the correction, initiating a recovery phase. The corrective movement initiated from July 7th ($72.97) ended on July 24th ($56.47). The current rebound is a technical recovery phase for that decline.

Path Two: Build a "descending consolidation" before continuing the downtrend. The market is currently building a new "descending consolidation", after which it will continue the original downtrend, breaking below the previous low of $56.47 to seek lower support.

3. In summary, in the short term, close attention should be paid to the test results of the price against the $60~$63.5 resistance zone and the defensive strength of the support near $56.47. The outcome of the battle at these two price levels will serve as key evidence for determining which path the market will take.

IV. HYPE Market Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategies for This Week

1. HYPE Market Forecast for This Week:

1. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Level: $60~$63.5 area

• Second Resistance Level: $68~$69.5 area

• Third Resistance Level: Near $72.97

2. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Near $56.47;

• Second Support Level: $52~$55 area;

Core View for This Week: Pay close attention to the test results of the price against the $60~$63.5 resistance zone and the support strength near $56.47.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week: This week's short-term operation: If the price rebounds to the $60~$63.5 area and shows clear adjustment signals, investors may consider entering short positions lightly, strictly adhering to stop-loss discipline, with position size controlled within 20%.

V. Bitcoin Short-Term Trade Profit Review

We strictly followed the operational plan and executed one short-term (short) trade last week based on trading signals issued by our self-built "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model", achieving a total trading profit of approximately 1.70%.

1. Short-Term Trade Record: (See Table 1) Summary of Bitcoin Short-Term Trade Details:

Table 1

2. Short-Term Trade Review: (See Chart Five)

• Entry Strategy:

a. When the price rebounded near $67,000, signs of stagnation appeared, and the candlestick formed a "top reversal" pattern;

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong top warning signal (white dot + green dot), followed by the signal band (blue) in the chart breaking below the skyline (green), issuing a sell signal; Simultaneously overlapped with the adjustment signal from the "Momentum Quantitative Model". Therefore, we established a 30% short position at $66,319.

• Exit Strategy:

a. When the price fell near $64,500 and showed signs of stabilization, with the candlestick forming a "bottom reversal" pattern;

b. The "Spread Trading Model" continuously triggered bottom warning signals (red dots), followed by the signal band (orange-yellow) in the chart breaking above the horizon (purple-red), forming a bottom resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model"; Therefore, we closed all positions near $65,192.

• Summary: This trade successfully profited approximately 1.70%.

3. Short-Term Trade Schematic Diagram

Chart 5: BTC 60-Minute Candlestick Chart (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

VI. Special Notes:

1. When opening a position: Immediately set the initial stop-loss.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry price (break-even point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the position of 1% profit.
4. Continuous tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in profits.

Financial markets change rapidly, and all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and operational strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely for personal trading log purposes, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Markets involve risks, investment requires caution. Please do not make decisions based on this.