Bitcoin has continued trading in the range of $61,220–$66,978 since July 6, indicating the persistence of a consolidation phase following the high volatility of the first half of the summer. The current sideways movement is influenced by a seasonal decline in market participant activity and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Despite periodic statements about the conflict between the US and Iran, the cryptocurrency market has gradually adapted to this factor and no longer reacts with such strong impulses as it did several months ago. This was stated on July 27 by financial analyst Andrey Poroshin of Bitbanker to Izvestia.
According to the expert, the long-term trend is shaped not so much by short-term news as by fundamental factors.
"The first of these is that bitcoin is still trading below the production cost for most public US mining companies, estimated in the range of $73,000–$75,000. Similar periods in past cycles were often observed near the end of prolonged downtrend phases, although they do not in themselves guarantee the start of a new upward trend. For comparison, in Russia, the mining cost is $58,000–$63,000, and in Iran, thanks to low electricity costs, it is even lower," Poroshin explained.
The second significant factor is the bankruptcy of the BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, which for many years remained one of the largest platforms for retail traders. In previous cycles, the combination of bitcoin trading below US mining costs and the exit of major infrastructure platforms from the market often coincided with the final stage of a bear market and subsequent recovery.
Locally, the technical picture looks as follows: a four-hour candle closing above $66,200 will open the way to the $67,500–$68,000 range. A confident consolidation above $68,000 will increase the likelihood of a move towards $72,000. Conversely, losing the $64,500 level will be a signal for a retest of the $61,000–$62,500 range. As long as bitcoin remains within the range formed since early July, the analyst sees the most likely scenario as the accumulation of positions ahead of the next medium-term impulse.
On June 16, Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov reported that non-qualified investors in Russia will soon be able to legally purchase bitcoin, ether, and popular stablecoins. Furthermore, the deputy minister clarified that a limit of 300,000 rubles per year through one intermediary has been proposed for "non-quals".
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