The cryptocurrency analytics firm Glassnode stated that Bitcoin's strong recovery from its mid-August lows is driven by the largest ETF inflow of the year, Bitcoin outflows from exchanges, and widespread accumulation by investor groups. According to the firm, the most significant obstacle for Bitcoin reaching its January peaks is the high-supply zone between $81,000 and $86,000.
According to Glassnode's analysis, Bitcoin has risen approximately 26% from its mid-August low, with the move starting from a historically large short liquidation on August 19, 2026. This was the largest single-day short liquidation in dollar terms since the company began tracking data in 2019, with shorts accounting for 85% of total liquidations during the rally.
The analytics firm reports that approximately 86% of the liquidation clusters that preceded Bitcoin's price rise have already been cleared. Despite this, a significant short position zone still exists in the $82,000 to $86,000 range.
Below Bitcoin's price, there is a significant cluster of long liquidations in the range of $60,500 to $62,400.
A significant reduction in leverage has also occurred in the futures market. Although the open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts decreased by 11 percent during the bull market, the dollar-denominated size of open interest increased, primarily due to the rising price of Bitcoin.
According to Glassnode data, this indicates that liquidated short positions are not being quickly replaced by new leveraged trades.
The fact that funding rates remained mostly neutral throughout the rally, only occasionally turning negative, suggests the move was sustained by short-term liquidations rather than newly opened large long positions.
Glassnode stated that the rally was driven not only by short squeezes but also by real capital entering the market.
During the seven-day bull market, spot Bitcoin ETFs listed on the U.S. market recorded a net inflow of $2.23 billion. There were no days of net outflows during this period, marking the strongest seven-day ETF inflow streak since 2026.
The most successful day for ETFs was the day with the largest single-day capital inflow since January 14, 2026.
During the same period, Bitcoin also managed to reclaim the Short-Term Holder Realized Price level, which is the average cost basis for short-term investors.
However, market activity remained below previous peaks. According to Glassnode data, the average daily Bitcoin trading volume during the bull week was approximately $2.4 billion. This amount is roughly half the levels seen in January-February.
Glassnode also highlighted Bitcoin movements among different investor groups.
Since hitting a low on June 30, 2026, the total Bitcoin held by investors owning 1,000-10,000 $BTC has decreased by approximately 50,500 $BTC.
In contrast, the largest investor group, holding more than 100,000 $BTC, primarily consisting of cryptocurrency exchanges, custodians, and ETFs, accumulated approximately 59,100 $BTC during the same period.
During just the short 'squeeze' period, this group's holdings increased by approximately 31,500 $BTC. Glassnode noted that this amount is comparable in scale to the Bitcoin ETF inflows during the same period, although a direct correlation between these two metrics and Bitcoin's price movement cannot be established.
According to Glassnode's Accumulation Tendency Score indicator, all Bitcoin investors are showing an inclination to accumulate.
All six different Bitcoin investor groups have had a 30-day accumulation score above 0.5 since August 5, 2026.
This situation has persisted for approximately 20 days, making it one of the longest since the 22-day period at the end of 2024 when all investor groups were simultaneously accumulating.
Glassnode noted that any investor group's score dropping below 0.5 could be one of the first warning signs that the overall demand supporting price appreciation is beginning to wane.
Bitcoin Finds Strong Support in the $62,000 to $65,000 Range.
According to Glassnode's cost-based analysis, a significant Bitcoin support zone lies in the $62,000 to $65,000 range below its current price.
Approximately two-thirds of the Bitcoin purchased at these levels from June to August are held by short-term investors. Therefore, this region is considered a critical support level where new market entrants may attempt to defend their average purchase cost.
The short-term investor cost basis for Bitcoin is approximately $70,000.
According to Glassnode, the first significant signal of an upward trend weakening could appear if Bitcoin falls below $70,000. The next important support zone would then be the $62,000–$65,000 level.
A return to the approximate $62,900 level, considered the starting point of Bitcoin's upward move, could signify a significant reversal of the current uptrend.
Glassnode: Bitcoin's Real Test is the $81,000–$86,000 Level
The most significant resistance zone for Bitcoin lies in the $81,000–$86,000 range.
According to Glassnode data, many independent market indicators point to the same price range.
The initial cost basis for self-custodied assets is approximately $80,800, while the dealer gamma level in the options market turns negative around $82,300. Short liquidation clusters extend up to $86,000, and the high-cost zone for long-term investors is in the $83,000 to $86,000 range.
Glassnode also noted that sell order volume on exchanges has increased as the price rose. The volume of pending sell orders within a specific range above Bitcoin's price increased by 41 percent over the past five days, while the volume of buy orders in the visible order book decreased by 32 percent over the past seven days.
According to the company, this data shows sellers are taking a particularly advantageous position above the current price.
Breaking Above $83,300 Could Confirm the Rally.
In Glassnode's view, a sustained close above the $83,300 level is needed for more convincing confirmation of Bitcoin's continued upward trend.
Holding Bitcoin above this level, combined with continued strong ETF inflows, could indicate that intense selling pressure in the $81,000 to $86,000 range has been absorbed by the market.
However, the options market is currently pricing in a more sideways trend.
With two major option expirations approaching, notional open interest is approximately $10.4 billion and $13.7 billion respectively, with maximum pain levels around $69,000 and $70,000.
The 70% success probability range for options expiring on September 25, 2026, is approximately $69,000 to $89,700.
According to Glassnode, the options market is not currently pricing in either a strong breakout above $86,000 or a return of Bitcoin to its main support zone as a primary scenario.
*This is not investment advice.
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