Since August 17, Ethena (ENA) has experienced a strong rally, with its price climbing from $0.083 to $0.166, a cumulative increase of nearly 70%. Ethena is the DeFi protocol behind the synthetic dollar USDe (set to launch in 2024). Its mechanism involves pairing staked collateral with corresponding short derivatives positions to achieve value pegging, and ENA is the protocol's governance token.
Open Interest: USD-denominated Doubles, Token-denominated Grows Only 23%
The leverage data from the derivatives market is particularly noteworthy. USD-denominated open interest surged from $113 million on August 18 to $237 million, an increase of over 100%. Open interest measures the total value of unsettled derivatives contracts (such as perpetual futures) and is a core metric for assessing market leverage.
However, token-denominated open interest (in ENA) only increased from 1.36 billion ENA to 1.68 billion ENA, a rise of approximately 23%. The significant gap between these two figures indicates that the growth in USD-denominated OI primarily stems from the price appreciation of ENA itself, rather than a large-scale increase in new positions. Santiment described this phenomenon as an "explosion in dollar leverage with normal token leverage"—price movements passively amplified the leverage data, while the market did not actually see aggressive position-building.
On-chain Activity Soars, Team Simultaneously Withdraws $23.6 Million
On-chain data also confirms the recovery in market enthusiasm. Santiment's report shows that the number of daily active addresses for ENA reached 1,946, approximately 2.5 times the August baseline and the highest level for the month. This significant expansion in network usage reflects accelerated capital and user inflow.
Concurrently, the Ethena team withdrew approximately $23.6 million worth of ENA tokens from exchanges during the price rise. Although such large withdrawals are routine operations in on-chain monitoring, and the report did not specify the purpose of the transfer, choosing to withdraw rather than deposit during an upward price trend is generally interpreted by the market as a potentially positive signal.
Technical Analysis: Strong Short-term Momentum, But Overbought Signals Appear
The four-hour chart shows ENA starting from the $0.08-$0.09 zone and pushing all the way to near $0.1537. The latest candle opened at $0.1558, reached a high of $0.1657, subsequently retreated to $0.1364, and finally closed at $0.1537, down 1.28%, with trading volume around 291 million ENA during the period.
Momentum indicators remain elevated: the RSI is currently at 79.42 (its moving average is approximately 83.13), within the traditionally defined overbought zone (above 70); the MACD indicator also remains positive, with the MACD line at 0.0170, the signal line at 0.0125, and the histogram height at 0.0045, indicating that bullish momentum has not yet exhausted.
Regarding overhead resistance, the $0.1600-$0.1657 range constitutes a key near-term resistance band. The recent pullback occurred after touching the previous phase high of $0.1657. To the downside, $0.1400 serves as the first short-term support level; a break below would bring the integer levels of $0.1200 and $0.1000 into focus.
Summary
ENA has staged a robust rebound with a weekly gain of nearly 70%. The simultaneous expansion of on-chain activity and derivatives trading volume reflects a substantial warming of market sentiment. However, two signals require attention: firstly, the severe divergence between the growth rates of USD-denominated OI and token-denominated OI suggests this rally relies more on passive amplification by the price itself than on active position-building; secondly, the RSI has entered overbought territory, increasing short-term volatility risk. The $0.1600-$0.1657 zone will be a key battleground for short-term bulls and bears. A successful breakout could open further upside, while failure could test the support levels at $0.1400 and below.
